California primary – For years, California—especially Los Angeles County—has been known for slow election counts, and this primary season could test patience even further. With close contests for California governor and Los Angeles mayor likely to remain unsettled into Wednesday o
The first returns from California’s primary may start flowing a few hours after polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday—but in some of the state’s biggest races, what those early numbers can’t answer is who actually wins.
Election-watchers who have lived through the state’s counting delays are bracing for what could feel like another drawn-out stretch. It took three weeks to call a particularly competitive 2022 U.S. House race in California’s Central Valley, with the outcome coming down to a couple of hundred votes. Two years later, state Sen. Laura Richardson waited 17 days to be announced winner of a hotly contested race in South Los Angeles. And in Northern California, an unprecedented second-place tie forced a recount that took almost two months to sort out.
Tuesday’s primary could stretch that reality even further. Some of the runoff candidates for California governor and L.A. mayor are widely expected to remain unconfirmed until Wednesday or Thursday, even as early reports begin immediately after the polls close.
“We’re trying to keep people calm,” said Tracy Hernandez, chief executive of New California Coalition, a nonpartisan group that works on policy solutions. “Expect not to know.”
California’s process slows down for reasons that are built into how voters are allowed to participate. The state’s many ballot methods—election officials say—expand access. but they also add steps on the back end to confirm and verify ballots. Universal vote-by-mail has become especially popular, and mail ballots require inspection and signature verification. Unlike in-person voting, where verification happens upfront, mail-in ballots must be checked before they’re counted.
If a voter’s signature is missing or doesn’t match the signature on file, California law requires election officials to notify that voter and give them an opportunity to fix the problem—another step that can push results later.
There’s also a logistical edge to how close races play out. Ballots are accepted for up to seven days after the election if they are postmarked on or before election day. In extremely tight contests, that means days can pass simply to receive the full set of eligible ballots.
Election watchdogs, however, insist that slow results don’t automatically signal fraud or mistakes. “We allow people lots of different avenues to vote. and as a result it takes longer to count up all the votes. ” said Jessica Levinson. a law professor at Loyola Marymount University. “And that’s how it should be. … It’s an argument in favor of making sure the process runs correctly — not quickly.”.
Hernandez framed the same delay as a feature, not a bug. “It’s healthy,” Hernandez said, “and it should result in more Californians being able to vote.”
That reasoning runs into a familiar reality for Los Angeles County. where the count is often slow partly because of volume. “There is no unit. no vote counting [system] anywhere in the country that is counting more votes and more elections than L.A. County — by far,” said Fernando Guerra, founding director of Loyola Marymount University’s Center for the Study of Los Angeles.
Still, the primary season has added potential complications to the timing of what voters see first. This year’s campaign environment has included a push against early voting and a high rate of undecided voters—patterns that are expected to delay when ballots are cast. received. and verified. Those shifts can also tilt the outcome suggested by the first batches of results. County registrars begin sharing updates a few hours after polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday. and the first tranches typically include ballots received before election day: vote-by-mail ballots and ballots from early voting locations. followed by votes cast on election day.
Zev Yaroslavsky. director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin and a former county supervisor. said this year’s early results may skew conservative—even in a state with a strong liberal slant—because messaging from the Democratic Party urged voters to wait because of concerns about the too-wide field of governor candidates. He pointed to the last L.A. mayoral election. where initial results showed developer Rick Caruso in the lead over Mayor Karen Bass before late voters and mailed-in ballots were counted. After seesawing results for almost 24 hours, Caruso conceded the race to Bass on Wednesday night.
“We need to accept the first ballots that are counted aren’t always those that are most representative,” Levinson said.
So when will voters know for sure?. There is no single timeline that guarantees a result by a specific hour. especially in races tight enough to remain uncertain as more ballots are processed. The Associated Press has become the benchmark many follow for calling election outcomes. and it generally does so only when it is “fully confident a race has been won — defined most simply as the moment the trailing candidates no longer have a path to victory. ” according to an article describing its process. The Times typically relies on its own expertise. but experts say the practical reality is similar: runoff candidates for governor and L.A. mayor may not be confirmed by the end of Tuesday night even if a front-runner becomes clear.
“It “may be a desperately unfulfilling cliff-hanger of a night,” Levinson said. “It’s entirely possible we could be looking at days not hours.”
Technically, local election officials have 30 days to process and certify all ballots, though it rarely takes the full window to declare a winner.
There is also a political push underway to speed up the count without shrinking access or security. Gov. Gavin Newsom and many in the State Capitol have backed efforts to accelerate results. Last year, legislators passed a law requiring votes to be tabulated by the 13th day after ballots close. That requirement does not change the 30-day deadline for official results, and it includes several exceptions.
Kim Alexander, head of the nonpartisan California Voter Foundation, said the challenge is keeping the core values intact while moving faster. “We have access, accuracy, security — now the challenge is to maintain all of those values while accelerating the count,” Alexander said.
Alexander also pointed to research suggesting voter confidence can fade as results drag on. even when the delay is part of the safeguards. She called it a “false choice” that the vote can’t be both well done and fast. “We can get it right and do it faster, and we should,” Alexander said. She has called for policy changes and additional funding to expedite and streamline the election process.
But others argue that longer results may be the cost of a process designed to work as it should. Guerra put it bluntly. “People have to be patient,” he said. “Instant gratification doesn’t have to run your life.”
Even campaign rituals are adjusting to the reality of waiting. Levinson said she’s seeing fewer traditional election-night parties and more “Keep hope alive!” gatherings. “Increasingly we’re seeing more ‘Keep hope alive!’ campaign rallies rather than election parties,” Levinson said of election night gatherings. “Maybe ‘campaign watch party’ might be a better term than ‘victory party.’”.
For California voters. Tuesday night may still offer momentum—but for some races. the final answer could land later than the social media cycle will want. The delay, as officials and experts describe it, is rooted in verification steps and the sheer volume of ballots. What remains uncertain is less whether the count will happen. and more how long the public will have to live with the suspense.
California primary Los Angeles mayor race California governor race election results vote by mail signature verification Los Angeles County elections election confidence