three races – Officials say California’s primary results could take days—possibly more than a week. Three storylines stand out: the fight to be among the top two vote-getters for governor, a high-profile Los Angeles mayor’s race that’s tighter than it looks, and how Proposi
Patience is the price of entry in California’s primary election—an unusually large slice of results could take days to settle, and officials are warning it may even stretch past a week before the full outcome is clear.
For political junkies, the wait won’t be blank. Instead, it will be measured against three races that are already feeling unusually consequential, not just for who advances, but for what kind of general election California ends up with.
The first thing to watch is the fight for California’s second top spot in the governor’s race—the position that can determine whether a party locks itself out of November.
Most polls and pundits point to Democrat Xavier Becerra as the likely top voter-getter to replace Gavin Newsom as governor. Until recently. it was also widely expected that Republican Fox News host Steve Hilton would advance. especially after he was endorsed by President Trump. But a new poll has suggested Hilton is now in a tight race for second place with Democratic billionaire Tom Steyer. who is spending heavily from his own fortune.
If Hilton fails to land in the top two. California could end up with something rarer than most primary outcomes: a competitive general election between two Democrats in November. Under California’s election rules, the top two vote-getters move on to the general election regardless of party preference.
Hilton is urging Republicans to unite around him to avoid being shut out. His main GOP opponent is Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco.
A few months ago, Hilton and Bianco were leading some polls amid a crowded Democratic field, feeding fears that Democrats might be locked out of November’s general election. Those concerns have eased as Becerra’s rise in the polls has made him the clearer front-runner.
The second storyline could pull the nation’s attention back toward Los Angeles in a way that feels almost improbable: the mayor’s race may truly be as close as recent polling suggests.
It’s rare for the Los Angeles mayor’s race to become a national story. This year, though, attention has clustered around a showdown that few would have predicted.
Former reality TV star Spencer Pratt is running from the right in a city that is heavily liberal. Incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, meanwhile, has City Councilwoman Nithya Raman running from the left. The dynamics have turned the election into a test not just of candidates. but of how turnout and coalition-building shape who actually makes it to the runoff.
A UC Berkeley–L.A. Times poll released last week found a close race among likely voters: Bass at 26%, Raman at 25%, and Pratt at 22%. Other polls have shown Pratt doing better. adding to the sense that the margin could come down to whether his attention—especially on social media—can convert into votes rather than just headlines.
Pratt has already drawn outsized attention online and in old media. but the question for election night is whether it’s enough to get him into the runoff. Bass has big labor on her side, and that support could play a decisive role in turnout. Still. Bass is also unpopular. according to polls. and that could give Raman an opening among Democrats who are looking for an alternative.
Then there is the quiet power shift that voters may not feel at the ballot box until they look back afterward: the fallout from California redistricting.
When it comes to congressional elections, this should be a good night for Democrats—by design. California voters last year approved Proposition 50, which redrew congressional districts to favor Democrats. The measure was part of a national battle in which both red and blue states sought to secure control of Congress.
The new California maps give Democrats an advantage in some areas, but how sweeping those victories will be remains unclear. Even in districts that look relatively safe, there are still intra-party fights worth watching.
Among the races flagged by the Times’ data and graphics team: Rep. Ken Calvert (R-Corona) lost his seat in redistricting and is now challenging incumbent Young Kim (R-Anaheim Hills) in the 40th District.
In San Francisco, multiple Democratic factions are vying to replace former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in the 11th District.
California’s 48th Congressional District in San Diego and Riverside counties has traditionally been red. But the sudden retirement of longtime Republican incumbent Darrell Issa—and the changes from redistricting—puts it into play.
In the 32nd District, veteran Rep. Brad Sherman is facing a strong challenge from fellow Democrat Jake Levine.
What ties all three stories together is timing: California’s primary doesn’t just award wins. it filters who gets to compete next. In governor’s politics. that filter could determine whether November becomes a general election that’s split along party lines—or one that pits Democrats against each other. In Los Angeles, the filter hinges on turnout and conversion, not just momentum. And in Congress, redistricting sets the stage long before any candidate can campaign through it.
As ballots are counted on Tuesday night, the question for voters may be simple: who’s still in the running when the dust settles? In California, the answer may not arrive quickly—but it will matter.
California primary election Xavier Becerra Steve Hilton Tom Steyer Chad Bianco Spencer Pratt Karen Bass Nithya Raman Proposition 50 congressional redistricting Ken Calvert Young Kim Darrell Issa Brad Sherman Jake Levine Nancy Pelosi