As California Democrats weigh late changes in a crowded governor’s race, many voters are holding their ballots longer than usual, worried a jungle primary could set up a runoff between two Republicans—an anxiety that has begun to ease in recent data and pollin
On Friday, Donna Layne paused longer than she ever has before an election. The 75-year-old Democrat walked her ballot toward a drop box in Santa Ana, but only after weeks of late-cycle uncertainty left her afraid her vote could end up “wasted” in the state’s jungle-primary system.
“I was concerned,” Layne said as she slid her ballot into the drop box. “I wanted to make my ballot count and I was afraid that there might be two Republicans because they had been polling pretty high, so I wanted to be strategic about it.”
She wasn’t alone. By Friday morning. voters—predominantly Democrats like Layne—were trickling into the Orange County Registrar of Voters in Santa Ana to turn in their ballots. Some told The Times they often wait until the days leading up to an election so they can watch the debates and make a more informed choice. But this year, many said they held onto their ballots far longer than usual.
The numbers show why the anxiety took hold. As of Friday. 19% of California Republicans had already cast their ballot. compared with roughly 16% by the same time in the 2022 primary cycle. according to data from Political Data Inc. Meanwhile, only 14% of the state’s far-more-numerous registered Democrats have returned their ballots, down from 17% at this point in 2022.
The gap was even sharper among older Democrats. Only 29% of Democrats age 65 years and older had returned their ballots—down from 33% in 2022. Even so, the delay wasn’t permanent. Data show Democrats have started returning their ballots in earnest over the past several days. a trend likely to continue through election day. said Paul Mitchell. the vice president of Political Data Inc.
Mitchell pointed to the psychology behind the hesitation. “It’s the predominance of this fear that they’ve heard in the media — and that’s largely abated — that a Democrat won’t make it to the runoff. ” he said. “In fact. there’s a growing sense that we could have two Democrats make the runoff. so that fear has — for the political class — gone away. but voters are still clinging to it.”.
That fear has been driven by the shape of the race itself—and by how quickly it shifted. California Democrats had been wrangling for weeks over who could rise from a crowded field to replace termed-out Gov. Gavin Newsom. Pressure intensified after the sudden departure of high-profile candidate Eric Swalwell amid sexual assault allegations. and because California’s jungle primary system sends the top two vote-getters to the November general election regardless of party affiliation.
In recent polling. Democrat Xavier Becerra—former Health and Human Services secretary—has risen steadily. positioning him well to potentially advance to November. In a poll released Thursday by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies. co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. Becerra was the leading candidate with 25% support among likely California voters.
Slightly behind was Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News commentator whom President Trump has endorsed, at 21% support. Another Democrat, Tom Steyer—a hedge fund founder and environmental activist—was third with 19% support.
Support for Becerra. Hilton and Steyer has increased since the last Berkeley IGS/Times poll in March. the survey showing those candidates have separated themselves from the rest of the field. For the only other major Republican candidate. Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco. support dropped 5 percentage points from the March poll to last week’s. leaving him in distant fourth at 11%. Former Democratic Rep. Katie Porter saw her support drop by almost half to 7%.
Other prominent Democrats—San José Mayor Matt Mahan, former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond—were all in the low single digits, the poll found.
The ballot hesitation wasn’t just theoretical. Roughly a dozen registered Democrats interviewed by The Times said they cast their ballots last week for the person they thought would have the best chance of making it through the jungle primary—even if it wasn’t their preferred choice.
Connie Wadsley, 78, said she “love[d] Katie Porter,” but didn’t believe Porter could win enough support to advance. “I really do, but I just didn’t see her as being able to pull it off. I just don’t think society is ready for a woman governor as much as that pains me to say,” Wadsley said.
In the end, Wadsley and her husband, Victor, voted for Steyer. She said Becerra felt too much like a career politician for her liking, but Steyer stood out because of his promise not to take corporate money and his positions on social justice issues.
“I think we need to shake things up in this state — in this nation,” she said. “Yeah, [Steyer] is a billionaire and I’m not really excited about that, but he truly seems to be spending his money on things that I feel are important.”
For some voters, the anxiety wasn’t only about party math—it was about volume. With 61 gubernatorial candidates in all, some said the sheer number of choices was overwhelming, and even organized gatherings with politically like-minded friends to talk through their decisions.
“It was really overwhelming for a lot of people. especially when they got their ballot and saw all of those names. ” said Linda Verraster. co-president of the Democratic Women of South Orange County. “There was this fear of making a mistake — air quotes — that would lead to two Republicans in the runoff.”.
The race has drawn comparisons to the 2003 recall election, when 135 candidates vied to replace then-Gov. Gray Davis amid the state’s energy crisis. Actor Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, won decisively with roughly 48% of the vote. But experts say this race differs in key ways. There’s no single candidate with star power strong enough to break through on name recognition alone.
Democrats, one political scientist said, are sharing a crowded but narrow lane. “There’s an option of like moderate Dem to slightly less-moderate Dem. ” said Matt Lesenyie. an assistant professor of political science at Cal State Long Beach. He said the similarity among front-runners has left voters with less ideological contrast to latch onto. “There’s a lot of people. but they occupy a very similar lane and I think that’s been a lot of the problem. ” Lesenyie said. “They’re loathe to really critique some of the foundational problems like a real ideological opponent would.”.
Verraster put it more plainly: “There’s no unicorn.”
Still, she said she’ll be happy if either—or both—of the two Democratic front-runners make it onto the November ballot.
California governor race jungle primary Gavin Newsom Xavier Becerra Steve Hilton Tom Steyer Chad Bianco Eric Swalwell Katie Porter Political Data Inc UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies elections voter turnout