Buxton trade hinges on one decision for Padres

Buxton trade – Byron Buxton’s early-season surge has pulled the San Diego Padres into trade talks, but the deal only moves forward if the outfielder is willing to go to a new team—specifically, if he does not use his no-trade protection to block it. San Diego would likely ha

The Padres’ interest in Byron Buxton isn’t happening in a vacuum—it’s being pulled by what he’s done so far this season. But for San Diego to turn that interest into real trade momentum, one condition has to be met: Buxton has to be willing to go.

ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and Jeff Passan wrote that “All of this is moot. and Buxton will drop off the list. if he indicates he will use his no-trade protection to reject any potential deal.” They added that Buxton’s loyalty to Minnesota is admirable. while also emphasizing that at 32. the slugger wants to win. They note that the Twins aren’t doing that this year and that. barring a spending spree over the winter. might not happen next year either.

That’s where the Padres see a possible opening. The fit starts with need.

San Diego’s offense has struggled in 2026. The Padres rank dead last in batting average with a team mark of .218. sitting 10 points behind the next-worst team. the Reds. Buxton’s career batting average is .250, and he’s currently hitting .275. He would not be expected to overhaul the Padres’ batting average overnight—but he could help in a category where San Diego is lagging.

Heading into Thursday’s games, Buxton had 23 homers, ranking No. 3 in all of baseball. The Padres as a team were ranked No. 21 with 74 home runs. Add a bat of that kind of power profile, and San Diego quickly rises up the list.

There’s also the promise that Buxton still carries a complete fantasy of what teams dream about: elite athletic ability paired with game power. McDaniel and Passan wrote that the report on Buxton is “still pretty similar to when he went No. 2 in the 2012 draft: elite runner and defender with loud bat speed.” They described how the bat speed that showed up in high school became in-game power by his mid-20s. and how in his early 30s he is hitting “some of the high-end projections for 30-plus homer potential more than a decade later.” Their bottom line was that “basically. everything you dreamed of with Buxton has come true. with injuries/durability being the only negative.”.

For the Padres, that negative isn’t a footnote—it’s the central risk. In Buxton’s 12-year major-league career, he played more than 126 games only once, back in 2017. Since then, his totals are listed as 28, 87, 39, 61, 92, 85, 102, and 126. Still. the article points to a key swing factor: Buxton is on pace to appear in over 120 games this season. and the specific “key injury hasn’t cropped up yet.”.

Trade talks are never just about talent. They’re about cost—and in this case, the cost is expected to be steep.

The Twins figure to demand “a haul,” but the Padres do not have a surplus in their farm system anymore. What they do have, though, is a pair of highly regarded catchers. The suggestion is that San Diego should put the lesser of those in the deal because of Buxton’s age. That player would be Ty Harvey, a 19-year-old who ranks No. 6 in the Padres’ prospect list according to MLB.com.

MLB.com’s scouting description of Harvey emphasizes his size and upside. It says Harvey has strength and power in his 6-foot-2 frame and showed it off in high school. summer showcases. and the Draft Combine. The scouting report also notes that scouts were split on whether the hit tool would arrive in time to match the pop before the Draft. It adds that Harvey’s “good hands and receiving skills will get him plenty of looks behind the plate. ” and that his above-average arm strength supports that case—especially if he can clean up some of his mechanics. The report also situates him within San Diego’s draft strategy. saying the Padres took fellow prep backstop Truitt Madonna in the Draft last year and would have to balance workloads for both. while still treating Harvey as having more upside with his slugging advantage.

Harvey could be a starting point, but it likely wouldn’t be enough on its own. The Padres are expected to have to add serious pitching talent to pull Minnesota toward a deal.

The name floated for that role is lefty Kash Mayfield. MLB.com describes him as tall and talented. with his fastball velocity rising to where he was sitting 92-95 mph and touching 97 in his final amateur spring. That, the report says, fell closer to 90-92 with a touch of 95 in the California League. The description credits the fastball with some ride and run. while also warning that it can bleed into the dead zone. The report treats the low-80s changeup as his “show stopper. ” calling it a true plus pitch that sells with arm speed and then dives down and armside late. It also describes his upper-70s slider as having slurvy characteristics. and notes that he was more successful against righties because of it.

Mayfield’s repeatable and loose delivery is part of what makes the profile attractive, and even the walking numbers are folded into the picture: the report says he walked 10.9 percent of batters in the California League, but suggests he should have enough control to start as he matures.

From there, the article turns to what the Twins may ask for next. It says they will likely demand another young prospect to complete the deal—and that the Padres need to be careful. One possible option mentioned is Kavares Tears, a 23-year-old outfielder. The description points to plenty to like about his power. but also says he has struggled mightily with changeups in his short minor-league career. That issue, the article warns, could dampen his impact at the big-league level.

All of the moving pieces—Buxton’s power. San Diego’s offensive gaps. and the Twins’ expected demand—lead back to the single gatekeeper that decides whether a deal can even exist: Buxton’s willingness to go. If he signals he would use his no-trade protection to reject any potential deal. the Padres’ trade plan doesn’t just stall. It disappears.

Byron Buxton San Diego Padres Minnesota Twins no-trade protection Ty Harvey Kash Mayfield Kavares Tears MLB trade 2026 season home runs prospect trade