Emerson poll – A new Emerson College Polling survey released May 28 suggests shifting momentum in the 2028 presidential primary fields, with Pete Buttigieg surging in the Democratic race while JD Vance holds a narrow lead among Republicans—despite continued uncertainty over
For the 2028 presidential race, the numbers are starting to feel less like predictions and more like pressure.
In the most recent Emerson College Polling survey released May 28, a meaningful slice of Democratic primary voters say they would support Pete Buttigieg—putting him in front of a field that still depends on unanswered questions about who will officially jump in.
On the Republican side, JD Vance is leading potential contenders as well, but the margin is tight and the terrain has noticeably shifted since an earlier Emerson poll in February.
Democrats: Buttigieg jumps into the lead
The poll shows 18% of Democratic voters backing Buttigieg for a potential 2028 Democratic presidential bid. California Gov. Gavin Newsom ranks second, followed by Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-New York, in third.
The survey also ties into a behind-the-scenes decision about how early states get a say. The DNC is hearing pitches from 12 states on which should vote first in the 2028 Democratic primary—a choice that can shape how quickly campaigns move and how much money flows early.
Republicans: Vance leads, Rubio gains ground, support shifts
Among Republican primary voters, JD Vance edges out the competition with 36%. Secretary of State Marco Rubio follows just one point behind at 35%.
Emerson’s previous February poll showed Rubio with a smaller share of support in the potential field, and the new results mark a 15 percentage-point climb for Rubio since that earlier snapshot.
At the same time, Vance’s support as the top choice has fallen by 16 percentage points over the same period.
The poll also finds 15% of Republican primary voters remain undecided. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley each polled at 5%.
How the survey was conducted
The Emerson College poll was conducted between May 24 and May 25, with 1,000 respondents and a margin of error of ± 3%.
Uncertainty remains: who is actually running?
The Democratic leader in the poll, Buttigieg, has not clearly confirmed whether he is running for president.
During remarks at the National Action Network conference in April, he addressed a question from the Rev. Al Sharpton about a possible return to the presidential race. Sharpton asked Buttigieg: “When you ran for president. you met me and we went up to a well-publicized lunch at Sylvia’s Restaurant in Harlem. Just so my calendar is clear. Should I be reserving a table at Sylvia’s?. Are you going to run again?”.
Buttigieg replied, “You save me a seat, I’ll be there,” and did not elaborate further.
For Vance, the situation is similarly unresolved in formal terms. As of now, he has not announced intentions to run for president in 2028.
And President Donald Trump has added another layer of ambiguity by refusing to choose between Rubio and Vance as his successor.
At a White House event on May 11. Trump said the pair would make a “perfect ticket” for a run in the next presidential election. Trump also framed his comments with a public hedge. saying. “I do believe that’s a dream team. but these are minor details. That does not mean you have my endorsement under any circumstances. ” and then adding: “I think it sounds like presidential candidate and vice presidential candidate.”.
The sequence that emerges from the numbers is stark: Republican support is moving quickly among the leading figures, while both parties’ top poll standings still sit atop unanswered decisions about who will actually seek the nomination.
2028 presidential primary Emerson College Polling Pete Buttigieg JD Vance Gavin Newsom Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Marco Rubio Ron DeSantis Nikki Haley Donald Trump DNC primary order National Action Network conference
Polls are meaningless lol.
So Buttigieg is winning and Vance is leading?? I swear it’s like they just rotate the same headlines every year. Also that DNC voting early stuff sounds like rigging, not “momentum.”
I don’t get why Newsom and AOC are even listed if nobody knows who’s gonna run. And 18% for Pete is only “surging” because the rest is messy. Feels like Rubio “climbed 15 points” but maybe it’s just a different crowd being asked the questions.
Emerson poll said Vance is at 36% which is huge but also “narrow lead,” so which is it? And didn’t Rubio already try to be the guy for everything? If the early states decide first, that’s gonna make it like Iowa 2.0 and all the money follows whoever’s loudest.