Bo Nix’s 2025 season produced scoreboard arguments for Broncos fans and plenty of fantasy utility—but the numbers that shaped his passing profile, plus the broken ankle he suffered in the postseason, make his 2026 fantasy path feel fragile. This preview weighs
For Broncos fans, the argument starts with a number that doesn’t move: Denver won 14 games in 2025. For everyone else, the debate starts where fantasy gets messy—when the quarterback’s efficiency and health don’t match the results.
Bo Nix is entering 2026 carrying that tension. Last season, Denver produced 28.3 points per game (4th), 342.6 total yards per game (10th), and 64.2 plays per game (5th). Dropbacks were a big part of that picture. too: 38.9 dropbacks per game (4th). paired with a dropback EPA per play of 0.097 (13th).
Nix’s passing profile is where the frustration has real teeth. Denver designed 26.8 rush attempts per game (19th), but Nix’s rush EPA per play sat at -0.069 (16th). It’s the pass side that’s earned the sharpest scrutiny. Nix’s air-yards conversion rate in 2025 fell below Cam Ward. despite Nix posting a perfectly average air yards per attempt—meaning he wasn’t unusually aggressive downfield. That’s part of why the concerns keep resurfacing.
Then there’s the success rate. Nix’s drop back success rate in 2025 was below that of Justin Fields and Bryce Young. Since the start of the 2024 season, Nix ranks 31st out of 41 qualifying QBs in success rate. His air yards conversion wasn’t dramatically different from 2024 either—he converted 42 percent of his air yards in 2024.
From a fantasy lens, though, the story doesn’t end there. In 2025, Nix averaged 0.47 fantasy points per drop back, ranking 22nd out of 35 qualifying quarterbacks. JJ McCarthy was a little bit better at 0.49 fantasy points per drop back, while Baker Mayfield was a little bit worse at 0.46.
The reason Nix remained usable in Superflex fantasy formats was his legs. He averaged 4.9 rushing attempts per game in 2025, down from 5.5 in 2024. Near the end zone, he looked particularly valuable: he turned six inside-the-10 rushing attempts into four touchdowns. But the postseason changed the tone. Nix suffered a broken ankle in the postseason, and it could hinder his rushing in 2026 and beyond. The ankle issue could be chronic. and Sean Payton said he “joked” that if he had known about Nix’s ankle condition. he might not have drafted him.
That matters because the article’s warning is blunt: if Nix loses that rushing juice, he would hardly be viable in any fantasy format, no matter what the scoreboard says.
The receiving room around him adds another layer of uncertainty—and opportunity. Courtland Sutton has leaned on target volume and air yards with Nix under center for fantasy purposes. Over the past two seasons, Sutton has been only 20 fantasy points over expectation. There’s also a red-zone shift: after dominating red zone targets in 2024. Sutton saw fewer red zone looks than Troy Franklin in 2025.
That setup is colliding with Denver’s move for Jaylen Waddle. Broncos beat writers have been nearly unanimous in naming Waddle the team’s No. 1 wideout headed into 2026. Payton, putting on a brave face, also said the Broncos would add “speed packages” for Waddle. The expectation is that Waddle will play from the slot and the boundary in Denver’s offense.
Nix’s matchup with slot usage becomes part of the question. Last season, Nix ranked 27th out of 40 qualifying QBs last season in adjusted yards per attempt on throws to slot receivers, and he ranked 29th in accuracy on slot attempts.
Still. there’s a practical fantasy argument for why Waddle could rise anyway: a relatively fast-paced Broncos offense without anything resembling a viable running game could create the target volume that makes Waddle a key pick in fantasy drafts this summer. The preview also points out Waddle is expected to be undervalued after production cratered in Miami last year.
Evan Engram brings a different kind of optimism. He didn’t fall off in major efficiency categories in 2025. The problem was route participation—51 percent—that damaged his fantasy value after an offseason where Payton talked up Engram as a key part of the team’s passing attack. In 2025. Engram was targeted on 22 percent of his routes. averaged 6.2 yards after contact per reception. and that mark was the second highest among Denver pass catchers.
If the coaching staff—under OC Davis Webb—asks for more, Engram’s floor could rise. If Webb has Engram run 70 to 80 percent of the team’s routes in 2026. he could be a perfectly playable PPR option. The preview also notes Engram drew rave reviews from Broncos beat writers during OTAs and has a history with Webb.
Troy Franklin’s 2025 showed what might still be possible downfield. He was an “air yards eater” who sometimes came down with the long ball, rewarding fantasy managers on big days. The downfield looks from Nix helped Franklin notch more expected fantasy points than DeVonta Smith, Ladd McConkey, and Tee Higgins. But Waddle’s emergence could wipe out snaps and routes for Franklin in 2026.
Denver’s backfield is where the offense’s stability could take shape—or crumble. The running group listed includes JK Dobbins, RJ Harvey, Jonah Coleman, and Jaleel McLaughlin.
Denver’s rushing attack was ordinary before Dobbins’ season-ending injury in Week 10. After that, the results slid. From Week 11 to 18, Denver ranked 23rd in EPA per rush, below the Cardinals. They averaged 103.5 rushing yards per game over the span (22nd). were 23rd in explosive rush rate. and sat 29th in yards after contact per rush attempt. Missed tackles forced were near the bottom of the league. which the preview connects to Harvey and McLaughlin being below replacement level as rushers.
The numbers tell a clear split between what Dobbins did and what Denver got after he went down. Dobbins logged 153 carries to just 50 for Harvey through ten weeks. Dobbins posted a 55 percent rushing success rate in 2025, miles ahead of Harvey’s 34 percent. Even in missed tackle forced per rush, Dobbins outdid Harvey.
But there’s also the limitation: Dobbins was treated as a prototypical TRAP back. seeing most touches between the twenties and losing out on inside-the-10 action. The preview points to how difficult it can be to feel good drafting a running back—no matter how reasonable the ADP—when that profile produces “86 hard-earned. scoreless yards on 19 carries in a good week.”.
Harvey’s status complicates his outlook. He was sidelined for most offseason practices after undergoing surgery to repair a torn labrum he suffered in the Broncos’ AFC title game loss. With Dobbins on the field. Harvey averaged 7.9 opportunities per game last season. compared to 18 opportunities per game when Dobbins was sidelined. The preview’s conclusion is that Harvey doesn’t have much fantasy appeal heading into his second NFL season.
Then Denver adds Jonah Coleman. Coleman comes in as a rookie selected with the 109th pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. The preview describes him as a largely overlooked profile that posted a 75th percent dominator rating—percentage of total team yards and touchdowns—along with 55 receptions over his final two college seasons. In his last two collegiate seasons, Coleman logged 25 rushing touchdowns. It also points to 2024, when Coleman was top-five in yards after contact per rush in the nation. That season he forced a missed tackle on 34 percent of his rushing attempts. one of the highest rates in the country.
The expectation is that Coleman could be better than Harvey, especially as a rusher and perhaps as a pass catcher. The likeliest outcome is still a frustrating timeshare. but the preview argues Coleman has a chance to emerge as Davis Webb’s lead back if the regular season begins with a healthy early run. Broncos beat writers believe Coleman will “probably” get some work early in the season after being “heavily involved in the Broncos’ passing game” during OTAs and flashing an “open-field burst” as a threat on screen passes and choice routes out of the backfield.
All of this lands inside the larger fantasy question: how many wins does Denver actually become?. DraftKings over/under is 9.5, and the preview’s pick is Over (-110). Last year. Denver ranked fourth in average scoring margin (+4.7) because of an elite defense. a good special teams unit. and a viable offense.
Payton’s confidence in Webb—at least for now—feeds the belief that the spreadsheets will keep humming even with a so-so quarterback under center. And if Denver’s rushing struggles keep the pressure on through the air. that’s the environment where Waddle’s “speed packages” role and the overall target volume could carry Nix’s fantasy ceiling.
But the looming shadow never leaves. If Nix can’t rely on the legs that helped him survive last season, the fantasy floor shrinks quickly. The scoreboard can tell one story. The ankle and the passing red flags tell another.
The preview is clear about its data sources as well: PFF.com, RotoViz.com, ProFootballReference.com, NextGenStats.NFL.com, 4For4.com, FantasyPoints.com, and RBSDM.com, with fantasy numbers based on full-PPR scoring.
Bo Nix Denver Broncos fantasy football Jaylen Waddle Courtland Sutton Evan Engram Troy Franklin JK Dobbins RJ Harvey Jonah Coleman ankle injury