Black lawmakers brace as Missouri weighs splitting 1st

future of – After the U.S. Supreme Court weakened protections for majority-minority districts, Missouri Republicans have moved to guard what comes next for the St. Louis-based 1st Congressional District beyond 2027. Black lawmakers say they’re watching closely after GOP o

For Black lawmakers in St. Louis, the fight isn’t about what happens in 2027—it’s about what happens before 2027.

Republicans didn’t join Southern states in immediately dismantling Missouri’s heavily Democratic. historically African American 1st Congressional District after the U.S. Supreme Court weakened protections for majority-minority districts. But that doesn’t mean the district is safe. Even after the next election cycle. Republicans could still use a path in the Missouri General Assembly to split up the district after 2027. when the 1st District has already had a plurality or majority of African Americans for decades.

The push is gaining momentum now. GOP officials. including Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins. have described majority-minority districts as unacceptable and said they don’t want districts drawn around race. “That’s the definition of racism … drawing districts based on the color of one’s skin,” Hoskins said. “We don’t want that in Missouri.”.

Not everyone believes the demise of the current 1st District is inevitable. Some argue the political pressure could ease if President Donald Trump’s popularity keeps slipping. Even among Republicans, caution exists about what happens if heavily Democratic parts of the St. Louis region are poured into seats designed to be safer for the GOP.

State Rep. Marty Murray, D-St. Louis, said he expects the next push will come through calls and influence in the legislature. “I think they’ll try,” Murray said. “I think the phone calls will come in to try to redistrict it.”

A seat carved out of an alliance

The urgency comes from the district’s origin story. Missouri Republicans helped create the 1st District in 1967, long before the current legal framework reshaped what state lawmakers can do.

Missouri had to redraw its congressional lines in the 1960s after a series of Supreme Court cases required congressional seats to be as equal in population as possible. Former Congressman William Clay Sr. wrote in his book “Bill Clay: A Political Voice at the Grassroots” that a majority African American 1st District came about through a state legislative coalition that included 57 Republicans. 13 Black legislators. and nine white rural Democrats.

Clay’s account describes an arrangement that produced a district split by geography and political leanings: a southeast Missouri-based district, GOP-leaning seats in suburban St. Louis, and a Black-majority district in St. Louis.

After the Voting Rights Act had long barred lawmakers from significantly reducing the population of the 1st District. lawmakers could have likely lowered the percentage of Black voters to around 25% or 30% without violating the law. But that never happened. the reporting says. primarily because Republicans and Black Democrats chose to honor the alliance they had forged in the 1960s.

For Black Democrats, the deal meant that an African American would likely be elected in the 1st District while Republicans benefited from nearby 2nd and 3rd Congressional Districts that leaned toward the GOP.

That alliance began to fracture as Republicans moved to eliminate Kansas City-based Democratic Congressman Emanuel Cleaver’s 5th District.

A Supreme Court decision changes the rules

This latest round of pressure has followed the legal shift tied to the Louisiana v. Calais decision.

In a legal filing over whether lawmakers could pursue a redrawn congressional map in the middle of the decade. Missouri Solicitor General Louis Capozzi argued that the 1st District lawmakers created in 2022 would likely be declared an unconstitutional racial gerrymander if plaintiffs succeeded in a case known as Louisiana v. Calais. The challenge questioned that state’s congressional map and broke down long-standing barriers around state lawmakers reducing minority populations of seats.

After the Louisiana v. Calais decision in April, GOP officials from Missouri and elsewhere derided majority-minority districts as “racist.” That included statewide political figures such as Denny Hoskins and U.S. Sen. Eric Schmitt, R-Missouri.

Schmitt’s spokeswoman Rachel Dumke said, “Redistricting is up to the state legislature, but this SCOTUS decision ensures that should MO1 be redrawn, it will not be done so based on race.”

State Sen. Rick Brattin, R-Harrisonville, said he supports getting “as many seats as we possibly can to save America,” but he also expressed uncertainty about the political will to act next year. “Do we see the political will or want and desire next year? I don’t know,” Brattin said.

He added: “I don’t necessarily see it, unless we see a [Democratic] takeover and all we see are impeachments and all we see are a bunch of crazy radical ideas,” Brattin said. “Then, yeah, absolutely, we need to accelerate that. But that’s to be determined.”

A risky gamble for neighboring districts

That hesitation has a practical edge. Even Republicans who want to redraw the 1st District have reason to worry about how the map changes could spill into other seats.

Eddie Greim, a Kansas City-based attorney who successfully argued the Louisiana v. Calais case, said forcing Republican advantage in the 1st District could jeopardize surrounding districts. “There’s a practical point. which is maybe trying to make that [district] more Republican will just endanger the three neighboring districts. ” Greim said. “And it just may not make sense.”.

Other caution comes from what would happen if GOP candidates become less popular in rural parts of the country. Some of the new maps drawn after the Louisiana v. Calais ruling are based on election results in the 2020s when Republicans were arguably at their peak performance in rural areas.

If Trump fades from the political scene, Democrats could potentially capture multiple House seats, according to the concerns raised. State Rep. Steve Butz, D-St. Louis, said Trump is historically unpopular due to backlash from the Iran war and what Butz described as Trump’s erratic public behavior.

Butz said it would be foolish for Republicans to follow Trump’s marching orders again. “We do enough fighting about the maps and gerrymandering once every 10 years,” Butz said. “To say this could conceivably happen every two or every four years. I hope that no one has the stomach for that. Republicans, independents and Democrats, that’s not good for anyone, specifically for the 1st Congressional District.”.

Others say Missouri Republicans could be waiting to see how their 2025 map performs. If those lines remain in effect and Cleaver still wins in a much more GOP-leaning seat, it could reduce the appetite after 2026 for efforts to redraw the 1st District.

State Sen. Karla May, D-St. Louis, said she hopes Missouri listens to voters, and she framed the fight as representation rather than a partisan prize. “And I’m hoping that Missouri stands up and lets their voices be heard and understand that representation for African Americans is just as important as any other representation. ” May said.

More than the district on paper

For Black Democrats like May, the issue is bigger than which party controls a seat. Preserving the 1st District, lawmakers say, protects the presence of Black leadership in St. Louis at a time when they feel civil rights progress is being questioned.

May said a Black representative gives a historically marginalized community access to the “table of power. ” and it brings concrete resources—money and political organizing—needed to elect Black candidates throughout St. Louis and St. Louis County. “All Americans should have a voice,” May said. “And to roll back years and history of civil rights like it never existed, like it never took place?. It amazes me how voters are even agreeing with this type of thing.”.

State Sen. Brian Williams, D-St. Louis County, said African American leaders need to stay alert. Williams pointed to the Republican targeting of Cleaver’s 5th District last year. even though GOP officials had similar fears about backfiring when Cleaver built relationships with GOP leaders including Congressman Sam Graves of Tarkio.

“I don’t put anything past this administration to influence the legislatures throughout the country,” Williams said. Williams said engagement matters now, including encouraging people to register to vote. He added. “And I think this summer. we need to be just as engaged – encouraging folks to register to vote. and most importantly. talk about the importance of protecting voting rights as well as representation in our city and beyond.”.

For now, the 1st District remains intact—Congressional maps are not final until the legislature decides. But the legal shift after Louisiana v. Calais has put St. Louis lawmakers in a familiar position: waiting for a new round of pressure, already bracing for what could come next.

Missouri St. Louis 1st Congressional District redistricting Voting Rights Act Louisiana v. Calais Denny Hoskins Eric Schmitt Emanuel Cleaver Marty Murray Louis Capozzi Brattin Butz Karla May Brian Williams voting rights