Bitcoin may – Bitcoin is trading around $61,000 and has struggled to hold the roughly $60,000 support level seen this year. A forecast from Markus Thielen of 10x Research points to potential further downside—possibly to as low as $55,000—before a bottom between late August
For a market that runs on momentum, Bitcoin has been living in a narrow corridor—one that investors now fear won’t hold.
On Wednesday, Bitcoin was trading around $61,000. This is close to the $60. 000 area where it has generally found support over the course of this year. but it hasn’t traded this low since the Fall of 2024. Year to date. Bitcoin is down around 30%. and that combination—proximity to support. plus how recently it last sat at these levels—has been pulling the conversation toward one question: where exactly is the bottom?.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, argues that the decline may not be finished. He believes there is still more room for Bitcoin to fall before a recovery can take shape.
One pressure point, in Thielen’s view, is the strength of the U.S. dollar. He points to the way the dollar has acted as a headwind for Bitcoin in the past, and says that strength could keep weighing on the cryptocurrency.
The backdrop is also turning less forgiving on interest rates. Thielen points to Kevin Warsh, the new chair of the Federal Reserve, describing him as appearing more hawkish than expected. The result, in the market’s current thinking, is a higher likelihood of multiple rate hikes this year. If that expectation holds, it could further weigh on Bitcoin’s fragile performance.
Still, the forecast doesn’t stop at “more pain.” Thielen says the downturn likely won’t get a whole lot worse. He grounds that view in liquidity trends, seasonal patterns, and macroeconomic conditions—factors that, in his assessment, line up with a low point sometime between late August and October.
That timing matters because it sketches a path rather than a cliff. If the bottom comes in that window, the market may have to endure what comes before it.
Thielen’s price target for that phase is sobering: Bitcoin may fall to as low as $55,000. If it reaches that level, it would break well below the $60,000 support that has largely anchored trading this year. But Thielen’s caution comes with a key qualifier—hitting $55. 000. in his view. wouldn’t necessarily lead to a more disastrous decline after the level is tested.
For investors, that framing changes the mood from fear to calculation. If the worst of the drawdown is expected to be contained—and if a low between late August and October is plausible—then the period leading into the bottom could look less like a dead end and more like a decision point.
Either way, Bitcoin’s next move is no longer just about holding $60,000. It’s about whether investors can trust that a rougher stretch is temporary—and whether the market is building toward the kind of recovery Thielen expects after the low point arrives.
Bitcoin BTC Bitcoin price forecast $60 000 support $55 000 downside U.S. dollar strength Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh rate hikes 10x Research Markus Thielen
Bitcoin at 61k is basically free money though… right?
So it might drop to 55k… cool cool. Like why is the dollar even involved?? I swear crypto just does its own thing. Also “support level” sounds fake to me lol.
If the Fed is “hawkish” again then everyone acts shocked like it’s new news. I didn’t even know the Fed chair was Kevin Warsh (isn’t that like an investor guy?). Anyway Bitcoin follows whatever the dollar does, so I guess 55k is the next stop.
Wait, this says it might not be finished falling but also says it won’t get a whole lot worse… so which one is it? Every time I hear “bottom in late August” it ends up being September for me. And down 30% YTD sounds bad but then they say liquidity and seasonality?? I’m lost. Maybe the support at 60k was just luck and now it’s gone.