Long-term Bitcoin holders have shifted from inactivity to selling, with roughly $2.4 billion sold over the past two days, while bitcoin ETFs continue their 12-day streak of net outflows—leaving investors weighing whether the slump is nearing its end.
For long enough, the people who tend to hold their Bitcoin through every storm have been quiet. From February to April, high-conviction holders—defined as those who have held coins for at least 155 days, or about five months—were largely inactive.
But in recent weeks, that silence has turned into selling.
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel said in a note Tuesday that these long-term holders have joined the sell-off as Bitcoin’s price slides to new lows. Over the past two days, they sold about $2.4 billion in bitcoin, a move Engel said has “large implications on BTC’s supply/demand balances.”
He pointed to where some of that selling is coming from. Engel said that 26% of the bitcoin sold in the past 30 days came from investors who bought Bitcoin above $90,000. “This cohort of top-buyers had been resilient throughout the bear market; however. they’re finally capitulating as BTC approaches new cycle lows. ” he added.
Engel also framed the shift as a familiar late-cycle pattern: “Top-buyer capitulation is a very common theme in late cycle bear markets. This makes us more confident that BTC’s bear market is in late stages.”
Bitcoin’s struggles are happening in full view. The coin has been trying—and failing—to climb back toward its October record of more than $126,000. Uncertainty around the Iran war has kept pressure on the price, even as the stock market has risen to new records.
That gap is part of what’s making investors restless. They’re being pulled in two directions by competing narratives—Bitcoin as “digital gold” that should benefit from geopolitical uncertainty, and Bitcoin as something that trades like a high beta tech stock.
On Tuesday, the pressure showed up in fund flows as well. Bitcoin ETFs registered their 12th day in a row of net outflows, the longest streak ever, according to SoSoValue. Net assets across bitcoin ETFs fell to $85 billion from $107.8 billion on May 14.
The selling mood hasn’t been confined to holders or ETFs. Bitcoin is down 12% week-to-date after fear-based unloading on Monday. That move followed Strategy’s minor sale of 32 coins, which triggered a cascade of long liquidations that accelerated the downward pressure.
Even with that sequence, some analysts argue Strategy’s sale isn’t the driver that explains the bigger trend. Citi analyst Alex Saunders said in a note that ETF flows are the primary driver of BTC price appreciation. explaining approximately 45% of weekly return variation. “ETF flows are the primary driver of BTC price appreciation. explaining approximately 45% of weekly return variation. and the best vehicle for tracking investor adoption/appetite. ” Saunders wrote.
He added that “recent flows have been negative,” and the chances for the passage of a U.S. market structure bill—a potential catalyst for renewed investor interest—are diminishing.
Saunders said sentiment is likely to remain lackluster, especially with the divergence from equities staying stark, absent positive regulatory news or fears tied to a “de-basement trade” around fiscal position.
Bitcoin long-term holders Compass Point Ed Engel bitcoin ETFs SoSoValue ETF outflows Strategy 32 coins long liquidations market structure bill digital gold narrative