Reading Time: 3 minutes Since mid-May global beef markets have seen a tirade of fast-paced decisions ranging from the potential dropping of tariffs in the United States to export bans placed on Brazilian beef, and finally the resumption of beef trade between China and the US. These global trade changes, both actual and proposed, have created a level of confusion and caution in a very short period. The flip-flop nature of US President Donald Trump’s idea to remove tariffs on beef threw the US imported
beef market into a state of confusion, with some players opting to sit on the sidelines awaiting further developments. This led to further downside for imported beef prices. While a government decision has been delayed, if Trump does decide to proceed with temporarily dropping tariff rate quota duties, the main benefactor will be Brazil, which currently faces a 26.4% tariff into the US. While Brazil looked set to enjoy easier access into the US market, it was blindsided by the possibility of a ban on
its beef imports into the European Union from September. This comes only weeks after the Mercosur-EU free trade agreement provisionally entered into force. The European Commission has accused Brazil of failing to abide by antibiotic rules and will stand by this decision unless Brazil can demonstrate compliance. Rounding out the week was the surprise announcement of China’s reinstatement of export licences for US beef plants. This development is in stark contrast to 12 months ago, when both countries were barely on speaking terms. This change
will initiate the resumption of US beef exports to China, which have basically flatlined since March last year. The Chinese market was extremely lucrative for US beef before those licences expired. This development also enables the US to start using its portion of China’s new 2026 quotas. The US was allocated 164,000 tonnes with a duty rate of 22%. With the looming expectation of both Brazil and Australia exhausting their safeguard quotas into China, these changes are well timed for the US. There was plenty
of speculation that global beef supplies would be tight in 2026 and, for some countries like the US, they certainly are. However, the producing powerhouses of Brazil and Australia have largely ignored their own forecasts and are ploughing large volumes of beef into China and the US. This is partly in response to impending tariff rate hikes, but also due to much higher than forecast production so far this year. Shipping beef to export markets has been a high priority for Australian exporters. In the
four months to April 30, Australia exported 506,000t of beef. But safeguard tariff measures are set to spoil the party Australia will hit safeguard thresholds in South Korea and China soon, leading to tariffs of 24% and 55% respectively. Australia hit safeguard tariffs into both countries last year, but China’s was only 12% at the time, thus creating a very different trading environment this year. In the first four months of 2026, Brazil exported 461,000t of beef to China, compared with 386,000t in 2025 and
376,000t in 2024. At this pace, it’s expected Brazil will exhaust its 1.1 million tonne allocation to China in record time. If these two countries alone keep up this pace of production, where is that beef going to head? Australia already enjoys zero beef tariffs into the US, and Brazil seems unfazed by its current tariff. The US is hungry for beef to compensate for its own production shortages and strong demand and will therefore keep the door open. This projected increase in beef shipments
to the US is well in excess of what the US absorbed last year and could make it harder for US imported beef prices to rally as hard this year. AgriHQ’s latest Livestock Outlook forecasts further lifts in farmgate prices in the coming months, but it’s certainly not looking as simple as last year’s run to spring. Subscribe to AgriHQ reports here, to view the full report.
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