beef prices – Surging beef costs—already up sharply since early 2025—are meeting a fresh risk: a screwworm outbreak that has spread into the U.S. and driven the cattle herd to 1950s-low levels. At the same time, U.S. and Mexican talks on June 16–17, 2026 could determine whe
For many Americans, the summer grilling season doesn’t feel like it used to. The prices coming out of the store have already climbed since early 2025. Now the pressure is getting worse—at the same time that a cattle disease outbreak is pushing the supply side tighter and trade uncertainty looms over the North American market.
The latest hit is a screwworm outbreak that began in cattle in Mexico and has now spread to the United States. In the U.S. the cattle herd has fallen to levels not seen since the 1950s. a decline attributed in part to drought. With fewer cattle and a disease risk that’s still moving. the timeline for recovery looks uncomfortable for consumers trying to plan a budget.
The strain isn’t only biological. Just before U.S. and Mexican trade negotiators began meeting on June 16–17. 2026 to discuss the long-standing deal binding North America. President Donald Trump warned that Washington may not renew the agreement negotiated during his first term and could potentially withdraw from it altogether. For an industry where beef is both a major agricultural import and export for the U.S. that kind of uncertainty can quickly translate into higher costs.
Beef prices have already been moving fast: the cost of ground beef is up by more than 20% since January 2025. The combination of tightening livestock supply and possible trade disruption is a recipe for more pressure on prices—especially when inflation-wary households are looking for a predictable grocery bill.
The rules that hold North America together
North American cross-border trade in cattle and beef was anchored in 1994 by the North American Free Trade Agreement. establishing free trade between the U.S. Canada and Mexico. That arrangement remained in place until Trump replaced it with the United States–Mexico–Canada Agreement. which came into force in 2020.
Unlike NAFTA, the USMCA must be jointly reviewed every six years and includes a 16-year sunset clause. Beef, like other goods covered by the agreement, was exempted from the tariffs that Trump imposed on those trading partners in 2025.
Formally. all three countries have to decide by July 1. 2026 whether to extend the deal for another 16 years. or let it revert to a series of annual reviews until full expiration in 2036. Canada, whose relationship with Trump is especially fraught, has been sitting out the talks. Instead, U.S. and Mexican negotiators are meeting by themselves and have turned to agriculture, with beef as a key sector.
In practice, the market behaves like one
Beef prices, production decisions, and supply are tightly linked across the three countries, effectively creating a single North American beef market. Cattle and beef products move across borders thanks to lower tariffs and harmonized regulations produced by the 1994 and 2020 trade deals.
The flow is built into how the industry runs. The U.S. imports young “feeder” cattle from Mexico to be fattened for slaughter. and it imports mature. or “fed. ” cattle from Canada that are ready for slaughter. Both groups ultimately go to U.S. packing plants. To meet consumer demand in Mexico, the U.S. also exports beef products and fed cattle.
That integration matters for U.S. supply stability too. Almost all U.S. cattle imports come from Mexico and Canada. In 2024, those imports were around 2.1 million head and were valued at more than US$3 billion. That’s smaller than the total number slaughtered in the U.S. that year—around 32 million head—but having a steady inflow helps stabilize supplies and manage prices.
The link has already tightened in 2025 and 2026. In 2025, live cattle imports plunged by more than 50%. In 2026, young cattle imports from Mexico collapsed by more than 80% due to the screwworm outbreak. The parasite has since been discovered in cattle in South Texas and New Mexico. and Canada responded by slapping bans on live cattle from the region.
When the borders wobble, cattle wobble too
The trade talks are broader than beef alone. Agriculture is part of the agenda. along with issues such as rules of origin. labor and environmental standards. digital trade. and investment provisions that shape North American supply chains. At the same time, U.S. trade negotiators are bringing the Trump administration’s more protectionist and transactional approach to the table.
Beef is one of the vital relationships at stake if negotiators fail to conclude the review. In 2025, Mexico was the third-largest market for U.S. beef exports, exceeding $1.3 billion. Canada ranked fourth-largest at $874 million. On the other side of the trade. Canada and Mexico ranked second and third. respectively. among countries exporting beef to the U.S. with more than $5 billion combined.
Even with Trump’s warning, the U.S. would still have a lot to lose if it exits the 2020 deal altogether. After the U.S. Supreme Court ruled against Trump’s sweeping emergency tariffs earlier this year. the administration has a stronger incentive to keep other tools in trade talks. U.S. farm groups—also a key Trump constituency—are strongly lobbying the Trump administration to keep the deal.
If the U.S. exits the pact, North American trade would likely revert to more basic international rules. That would allow Mexico and Canada to impose their own tariffs, raising costs for producers, processors, and ultimately consumers. The partners would also gain more room for nontariff barriers like stricter inspections. more paperwork. and potential quotas on U.S. exports.
Cattle often cross borders multiple times during production, so even small delays can compound. The likely result would be less efficient supply chains, fewer imported cattle, tighter U.S. supply, and higher prices.
Some ranchers are already living in that fear. One rancher told us, “We can’t lose demand for our products,” adding: “Look what happened with soybeans last year when China quit buying.”
Where this leaves the summer grilling season now
U.S. households are already staring at beef costs that have surged since early 2025. with ground beef up by more than 20% since January 2025. The new layer—screwworm spreading into the U.S. herd levels at not-seen-since-the-1950s lows. and Canada’s bans tied to findings in South Texas and New Mexico—tightens supply at exactly the moment trade negotiations could reshape the rules for moving cattle and meat across borders.
When biological risk and trade uncertainty hit together, the market has little time to absorb the shock. And by the time grilling season is in full swing. those disruptions—whether from disease. delayed shipments. or higher costs embedded in tariffs and paperwork—are the kind that don’t stay in the spreadsheets. They show up in the price tag.
beef prices screwworm outbreak cattle herd USMCA review North American trade Mexico beef exports Canada live cattle bans inflation ground beef prices summer grilling season drought