Becerra leads – A new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey shows Xavier Becerra leading California’s top-two gubernatorial primary race ahead of Tuesday’s election, with Tom Steyer and Steve Hilton locked in a close contest for second place. The margin be
By the time voters get to the top-two ballot in California’s gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, the question won’t be who’s ahead—it will be who lands in the one spot that matters next: the runoff.
In a new Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey released days before the election. Xavier Becerra. the former Health and Human Services secretary under President Joe Biden. leads the field with 28 percent support. But the race for second place is unsettled. Tom Steyer. a Democratic businessman. is at 22 percent. while Steve Hilton. a Republican political commentator and former adviser to British Prime Minister David Cameron. sits at 21 percent.
California’s top-two system means every candidate appears on the same ballot regardless of party. The two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the general election in November—even if they’re from the same party. That structure has given Democrats an advantage in a state that has long been their stronghold in statewide elections. but it also means a fragmented field can flip expectations.
The broader political stakes are hard to ignore. The last Republican elected governor of California was Arnold Schwarzenegger, who left office in 2011. In 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris carried her home state by about 20 percentage points over President Donald Trump.
With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom unable to run due to term limits—and Newsom viewed by some as a possible 2028 presidential candidate—the contest has drawn national attention. Among the candidates still in the race, the numbers suggest the path to November runs through coalition shifts.
The Emerson survey showed support dropping among the remaining candidates: Chad Bianco. a Republican who serves as Riverside County sheriff. received 12 percent. Matt Mahan. a Democrat who serves as mayor of San Jose. and Katie Porter. a Democrat who represented an Orange County district in Congress. each fell far behind. with Porter at 5 percent and Mahan at 5 percent. Another 5 percent of voters were undecided.
When undecided voters were asked who they would support, Becerra remained at 28 percent. Hilton and Steyer both received 23 percent—an outcome that keeps the second-place fight in play right up to Election Day.
The Emerson poll was conducted May 27-28 among 1,000 likely primary voters. Its margin of error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in the Saturday release that Becerra “maintains frontrunner status” ahead of Tuesday’s primary. Kimball also pointed to how second place could open up if support patterns keep shifting.
“If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit,” Kimball said. He added that Steyer’s path to the runoff “depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer.”
The tightness is more than a headline—it reflects movement from earlier polling. The Emerson survey represents a 9-point increase in support for Becerra compared with a mid-May Emerson College Polling/Inside California Politics survey. In that earlier survey. conducted May 9-10 among 1. 000 likely voters. Becerra led with 19 percent. while Hilton and Steyer were tied at 17 percent. Bianco had 11 percent support, and Porter had gained 10 percent. The margin of error in that poll was also plus or minus 3 percentage points.
Over the course of the year, Becerra and Steyer have gained across several Emerson polls this year. Hilton’s support has remained fairly similar, while Porter’s share has dropped and undecided voters have declined.
Other polling shows why the race for second place remains so competitive. A University of California Berkeley poll of 5. 472 likely voters conducted between May 19-24 found Becerra at 25 percent. Hilton at 21 percent. and Steyer at 19 percent. with a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points. Further down the ballot, Bianco had 11 percent, Porter 7 percent, and Mahan 4 percent.
An additional PPIC Statewide Survey, conducted between May 14-18 among 986 likely voters, also found Becerra leading. That poll showed Becerra at 23 percent, followed by Hilton at 20 percent and Steyer at 15 percent. Bianco had 13 percent, Porter 12 percent, Mahan 8 percent, and Antonio Villaraigosa 4 percent. The PPIC survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.
With a three-point gap between Becerra and Hilton falling inside the range of error, it is not a mathematically settled lead; the same is true for the race for second.
The numbers also land amid a campaign landscape shaped by choices inside the field. Two contenders—former Representative Eric Swalwell and former state Controller Betty Yee—ended their campaigns prior to the primary.
Even with Democrats dominating the overall roster, the campaign splits illustrate the pressure points that could decide who advances. Among Democrats. Becerra has positioned himself as more aligned with a traditional party establishment lane. while Porter has run as a policy-driven. anti-corporate progressive focused on consumer protection and oversight. Villaraigosa, a former Los Angeles mayor, is widely viewed as more centrist. Steyer has taken an outsider approach with a populist progressive message. emphasizing climate policy and economic inequality while funding an aggressive campaign with his own wealth.
Republicans in the race include Bianco and Hilton. who represent different wings of the party—more traditional conservatism from Bianco and a populist outsider stance from Hilton. Both face an uphill climb in a heavily Democratic state. though California’s top-two system can create openings when voters are split across multiple candidates.
Hilton’s campaign has leaned into the narrowness of the race without treating it as guaranteed. In a phone interview Friday, Hilton said he is not taking anything for granted in the final stretch.
“I think the way I’m seeing it is that we’re confident but not complacent,” Hilton said. “You know, we’re going to be fighting very hard right to the end because we just can’t take it for granted.”
He added that while most polls show him in the top two, they remain “pretty tight.”
President Donald Trump endorsed Hilton last month.
The final day of voting is unlikely to feel like a clean referendum on any single candidate. Instead. it will be a contest of math and momentum—whether undecided voters break for Becerra. whether support shifts enough from other candidates to push Hilton or Steyer into the runoff. and whether the field stays fragmented or consolidates in the final stretch.
After Tuesday’s primary, California’s general election will take place in November—leaving a narrow margin to determine which two names begin the next phase.
California gubernatorial primary Xavier Becerra Tom Steyer Steve Hilton Emerson College Polling top-two primary Gavin Newsom term limits November general election