Becerra’s surge – Just two months after polls had Xavier Becerra near the bottom of California’s governor’s race, the longtime Democrat now leads in the latest UC Berkeley polling—after former Rep. Eric Swalwell suspended his campaign on April 12. Supporters credit timing, ads,
When Xavier Becerra walked into his campaign moment after a union rally in the Inland Empire on Friday, his rise had already become the question everyone wanted answered.
Two months ago. major opinion polls had left the longtime Democratic politician mired near the bottom of the pack. overshadowed by rivals described as flashier or better funded. Now. Becerra tops them all in the most recent opinion polls—an abrupt leap that has left both loyal supporters and well-financed critics struggling to explain how the race tilted so quickly.
In an interview Friday, Becerra pushed back on the idea that his momentum is some kind of glittering invention. “Folks put their faith in someone who’s done that kind of work and achieved results. someone who’s taken on real crises and been able to pull us out of them. ” he said. “Now it’s time to get things done. I think they’re looking for someone who could actually do that.”.
The campaign’s internal story begins with a date that changed the entire landscape. After Swalwell suspended his campaign on April 12, Becerra’s ascent began. His team also points to timing: a seven-figure political ad campaign that launched shortly before explosive allegations of sexual assault and misconduct against former Rep. Eric Swalwell, who had been the then-leading Democrat in the race.
Whatever the explanation, the numbers now look like a rupture. In a UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies poll co-sponsored by the Los Angeles Times. Becerra is backed by 25% of likely California voters. Republican Steve Hilton follows at 21%, and environmental activist Tom Steyer, a fellow Democrat, is at 19%.
Two months earlier—before Swalwell dropped out—support for Becerra had registered at just 5%.
If it holds into Tuesday’s primary election. Becerra’s surge over the other Democrats in the final sprint of his campaign will become a defining moment of the 2026 governor’s contest. Even some supporters sound stunned by the speed of it. “It’s almost too good to be true. ” said Carrie Webster. a Becerra supporter and Long Beach hairdresser who interviews political candidates on social media using the name “Crowd Source Carrie.”.
Webster, 49, said the shift felt real rather than manufactured. “He shot through the roof, but it feels like it’s all organic,” she said, adding that she isn’t paid for her political work.
Part of the mystery is Becerra himself. A Sacramento resident, he is 68. He served one term in the state Legislature. more than two decades as a Los Angeles congressman. and then as California attorney general. Most recently, he worked as the secretary of Health and Human Services in the Biden administration. His only previous statewide race was his 2018 bid for attorney general, which he won handily. That campaign benefited from incumbency after being appointed by Gov. Jerry Brown to fill the vacancy caused by then-Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris’ election to the U.S. Senate.
Running for governor has proved much more daunting. His top Democratic challengers include Steyer. described as a free-spending billionaire. and also former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. current San José Mayor Matt Mahan. former Orange County congresswoman Katie Porter. and state Supt. of Public Instruction Tony Thurmond.
Earlier in the campaign, leaders worried the field was too crowded. In early March, Rusty Hicks, chair of the California Democratic Party, urged struggling candidates to drop out of the race. Hicks feared the crowded field would splinter the party’s voters and could lead to a Republican being elected as the next governor of California.
Under California’s top-two primary system, only the first- and second-place finishers in the primary advance to the November election, regardless of party. Hicks did not mention Becerra by name, but he was among the candidates in the thinning process.
Before the April shock from Swalwell’s exit, Becerra’s splashiest moment came in late March. He launched a public pressure campaign to boycott a gubernatorial debate hosted by USC after Becerra and other candidates of color were excluded from the lineup. University officials based the invites on opinion polls and a controversial campaign fundraising formula. The debate was canceled less than 24 hours before it was scheduled to take place.
After Swalwell’s allegations hit and attention flooded in. the race transformed from a slow boil into a national-style spectacle that political strategists compared to the messy drama of a long-running reality show. Political data strategist Paul Mitchell compared the moment to a dramatic scene midway into a “Real Housewives” season.
“A dramatic table flipped, thrown wine on somebody else, and all the voters started paying attention,” Mitchell said.
For digital communications expert Al f LaMont, the shift happened in real time. LaMont worked for Swalwell’s team until his firm quit on April 10 following news reports about the allegations against the East Bay Democratic congressman. LaMont said he was “doomscrolling” the same night when he saw an “organic. random” push for Becerra on Threads and other social media sites. He said he immediately called Becerra’s campaign team and signed up to work for him.
Webster, the Long Beach content creator, said she noticed the same kind of momentum online. “People were saying, ‘Let’s print out yard signs, T-shirts,’” Webster said. “Or someone would say, ‘I’m going to start Gen X for Becerra,’ or ‘I’m going to start Millennials for Becerra.’”
That social-media buzz has become part of the competing explanations for Becerra’s leap—because not everyone sees it as purely organic.
Steyer’s campaign hired an intelligence agency with ties to a major Israeli firm to study the trend. The agency’s report. according to Steyer’s team. found about 3. 000 fake accounts that amplified Becerra across social media platforms X. Facebook and Instagram while also criticizing Steyer. The report stated the fake accounts generated 1.3 million views and 42,000 engagements.
Steyer spokesperson Kevin Liao alleged a coordinated network from Becerra’s team or his supporters. Becerra’s campaign denied any role and dismissed the influence of the fake accounts.
Not all of the mystery is about online activity. Even before the polls shifted after Swalwell’s exit, there were signals of a different kind of approval.
Earlier opinion polls offered a possible explanation: Becerra’s favorability ratings versus his unfavorability ratings were better than rivals. including Porter and Villaraigosa. even while he remained behind them in support among voters. Mitchell also said Swalwell, when he dropped out, was “seen as the least objectionable of the candidates that were remaining.”.
The UC Berkeley poll released Thursday showed more likely voters viewed Becerra favorably (44%) than unfavorably (38%). By contrast, 39% of voters viewed Steyer favorably and 43% unfavorably.
Becerra’s campaign credits part of his April surge to good fortune, including the timing of its advertising buy. The team unleashed a large advertising buy—described as a major chunk of his remaining campaign funds—placing spots on cable TV and online beginning in late March.
Becerra’s ads depicted him as calm and experienced. One showed him speaking to a diverse group of young people about his record of challenging President Trump. The ad also referenced that he sued Trump’s administration more than 100 times when he served as attorney general. and it presented his plan to bring down the cost of living for “the next generation.”.
At the same time, LaMont’s team—which also is behind Gov. Gavin Newsom’s political communications—created a more “earthy” and “grassroots” look for Becerra’s ads and messaging. The campaign used words like “Tio” and “carne asada” to emphasize Becerra’s Latino heritage.
The polls done in the wake of Swalwell’s exit showed Becerra gaining ground. Special interest groups, including California Medical Assn., which had supported Swalwell, switched to Becerra. A well-financed, independent political committee campaigning against Steyer—an effort intended to benefit Swalwell—moved over to Becerra. Major corporations, including Chevron, Meta and McDonald’s, lined up next.
But Becerra appeared unprepared for the speed at which voters and others gravitated toward him. He stammered through hastily filmed videos asking for small-dollar donations as his campaign tried to convert the new interest into donors.
He also appeared stiff during his first post-Swalwell debate appearance. He mistakenly referred to Trump’s “war in Iraq” instead of Iran during his first answer. He fended off the first of many attacks to come during an April 22 debate.
In a sit-down interview with a KTLA-TV reporter in Los Angeles in early May, Becerra went immediately on the defensive, questioning whether it was a “gotcha piece.”
Even with those missteps, people kept showing up. They flocked to town halls, including one in Oxnard in May, where he leaned into a “bad dad joke” persona. He greeted a large crowd with his corny, familiar line: “Did you think you were coming to a Bad Bunny concert?”
Oxnard audience member Rose Castren, 68, told the Los Angeles Times she liked Becerra’s “calm and reassuring” style.
The retired nurse watched the CNN debate in early May, where candidates piled on Becerra to try to undercut his momentum. “The other candidates seemed to be coming unglued,” she said. “And he didn’t.”
The campaign’s rise has turned this race into a contest over more than policy. For supporters, Becerra’s steady approach reads like the answer to voters who want experience without showmanship. For critics. the suddenness creates room for suspicion—whether it’s the timing of ads. the speed of switching support. or claims about fake social-media accounts.
At the center of it all is the same unanswered question: how a campaign described as doomed just two months ago now leads the field.
Times staff writer Seema Mehta contributed to this report.
Xavier Becerra California governor race Eric Swalwell UC Berkeley Institute for Governmental Studies poll Steve Hilton Tom Steyer social media fake accounts Threads X Facebook Instagram primary election USC debate boycott Inland Empire union rally