With Tom Steyer hanging on in California’s Democratic-heavy governor primary and polling suggesting he could leap into second place, the race that looked like a routine Dem win may instead produce a rare Democrat-on-Dem showdown in November.
For days, the California governor primary has felt like a test of who would end up joining Xavier Becerra at the top of the November ballot. Then the momentum shifted—subtly at first, then loudly in the polls—toward Tom Steyer.
Steyer is down-not-out with just days left to campaign. The problem for Republican challenger Chad Bianco is even more immediate: Riverside’s favorite MAGA sheriff is “almost definitely” shoulders-to-the-mat done, leaving no realistic path for a Republican sweep in the state.
That’s why what has been a pretty dry governor’s primary race is starting to look different. If Steyer can finish high enough, the election could produce two Democrats on the November ticket—something that until now seemed unlikely.
“It’s a low probability,” political data guru Paul Mitchell said, putting Steyer’s chances somewhere under 10%. “But there’s always a chance.”
The scenario that would matter most for voters is a Democrat-versus-Democrat showdown. Mitchell frames it as a near-locked outcome for Becerra if the top two are Becerra and Steve Hilton. because “there just aren’t enough Republican voters in the state to carry a general election.” But a Becerra-Steyer face-off would force both candidates to argue for a vision of California beyond the broad. generic liberal case.
So far, Mitchell said the race has been light on specifics. Still, the stakes are anything but vague for the state itself—problems like a failing healthcare system and gas prices that lawmakers say “literally mystify” them.
And in the uneasy space between policy and personality, voters are still sorting out what they’re really backing.
Some wonder whether Steyer is a billionaire dilettante trying to buy an office. Others ask if Becerra is beholden to corporate interests that have funded his campaign.
Chad Peace, of the Independent Voter Project, pressed the point from another angle on a press call supporting open primaries: “There’s lots of shades of blue.” When voters only see “red and… blue,” Peace said, they forget the differences that actually separate candidates.
That matters because the ballot still includes more than the two men now being talked about as potential toppers. Former Rep. Katie Porter and San José Mayor Matt Mahan are still campaigning, though their support is falling.
Even with the race tightening, voters appear nervous—especially those who worry that voting for a candidate perceived as having no chance could be a wasted vote. Mitchell said voters are “really thinking about the implications” of their choice.
Recent polls are part of what could change that. They’ve put Steyer in something like a near-dead-heat with Republican front-runner Hilton, with both hovering slightly above or below 20%. Becerra leads them both by a few points, particularly among Latino voters.
Becerra would also make history in a different way: he would be California’s second Latino governor, after Romualdo Pacheco, who held the office for 10 months in 1875.
For supporters watching this unfold, the idea of a Becerra-Steyer contest carries both promise and risk. Diane McClure, a board member of the California Nurses Assn., endorsed Steyer early. Her reason is tied to a long-running union fight for single-payer health insurance. and she said she’d like to see Steyer take the top spot in a scenario that keeps it “easy-win” against Hilton.
But she also suggested that even a tighter contest could jolt attention.
“Maybe it’s a good thing, maybe it’ll wake some people up,” McClure said—then added a contrast that lands with the force of a plea: “Maybe it’s a good thing….”
Steyer, for his part, says he’s not changing course. At a Sacramento stop Friday. he moved through a crowd of about four dozen mostly union supporters. chatting with them as he made his way around the room. He wore trademark Nikes—this time a vintage pair with a tartan plaid swoop. When he finally took the microphone, he kept it simple and direct.
“Four days,” Steyer said. “I really need you to stand with me. But let me say this: you stand with me, I stand with you.”
Unlike Steyer’s debate performances. the event he gave looked like him at full pitch—passionate. with what sounded like a stubborn belief that the race could still break his way. He told the crowd. “Make a decent living. buy a house. have a great education for your kids. and retire.” Then he pushed back hard against the idea that people can’t get there: “When people say that’s not possible. bull—. that’s bull—.”.
In the room, the pitch landed for Ricky Carter, one of the few non-union members invited because his wife, Barbara, was on a prayer chain with another invitee. Carter described himself as an older Black man originally from South Los Angeles. He said he believed Steyer.
“I believe him. He got it right in here,” Carter said, pounding a fist over his heart. “It ain’t about no color, creed and race. … It’s about the people.”
Elections are often about the people in theory, even when they don’t feel like it. Right now, in California’s primary, the race is shifting just enough that it’s starting to feel personal.
If Steyer’s momentum holds—if he can climb from where he is today into a genuine path toward November—the state’s choices could stop being symbolic and start being sharp. A Becerra-Steyer matchup would mean voters would have to decide between two Democrats. not choose the lesser of two locked-in expectations.
For supporters like McClure and listeners like Carter, that possibility is not just a political twist. It’s a chance—however slim—for the candidates to be forced into a contest that reaches the details people live with every day.
California governor primary Tom Steyer Xavier Becerra Steve Hilton Chad Bianco Katie Porter Matt Mahan California Nurses Association open primaries single-payer health insurance