Ethan Ross – MISRYOUM News Reporter & Editor

Ethan Ross

Ethan Ross is a Canberra-based journalist who has spent more than a decade reporting on federal politics, national security and the policy decisions shaping everyday life in Australia. He began his career as a cadet reporter with a regional newsroom, covering councils and local courts before moving into national affairs. Over the years, Ethan has worked across interviews, live breaking updates and long-form explainers, earning a reputation for clear, accountable reporting and careful sourcing. His reporting has focused particularly on parliamentary process, ministerial integrity, procurement and emergency management, drawing on background briefs from legal and public administration experts. Ethan continues to develop his craft through training in data journalism and verification, and he regularly mentors younger reporters on field safety, ethical publishing and how to handle sensitive information responsibly.

地緣政治風險持續：霍爾木茲海峽航運受阻，央行或維持利率不變

中東衝突兩個月後，雖然美伊停火協議延長，但霍爾木茲海峽的原油運輸仍未恢復，供應缺口持續，市場預估油價下限在80美元，同時主要央行可能本週保持利率不變。中東衝突已進入兩個月，景順全球研究主管Benjamin Jones指出，地緣政治風險仍在持續發酵。停火協議在最後關頭得到延長，與景順的基本預期相符，但實際航運情況未見改善。過去一週，經過霍爾木茲海峽的船隻數量仍低於戰前水平。儘管美伊雙方同意暫停軍事行動，油輪仍選擇繞道或利用陸上管線運輸，導致市場對供應緊張的擔憂未減。從區域出口來看，沙特的東西向管道每日可輸送約700萬桶原油，阿聯酋的哈布尚‑富查伊拉管道則在150萬至180萬桶之間。兩條管線已逼近運作上限，然而戰前每天約1500萬桶的霍爾木茲海峽流量仍只能恢復約900萬桶，意味著每日仍有約600萬桶的供應缺口未彌補，其他如氦氣、鋁和硫磺等貨物更無替代路線。霍爾木茲海峽的戰略意義央行政策與能源市場的交叉對於在波斯灣工作的船員與港口工人而言，航運中斷不僅意味著收入減少，也帶來安全與心理壓力。許多家庭依賴每日的油輪作業維生，當船舶被迫停泊或改道，相關產業鏈的勞動者將面臨失業或減薪的風險。這種人力層面的影響往往被宏觀數據掩蓋，但卻是衝突最直接的社會成本。與1990年代海灣戰爭相比，當前能源市場的彈性顯著提升。儲備油量的充足、替代能源的逐步佈局，以及全球貿易金融工具的成熟，使得市場能在供應中斷時迅速調整。儘管如此，原油的基礎需求仍高度依賴霍爾木茲海峽，風險溢價仍將在未來數月內存在。綜合以上因素，景順預測今年布蘭特原油近月合約的下限大約在80美元左右。即便市場情緒較先前更為樂觀，地緣政治風險溢價仍是投資者需要持續關注的核心變數。