Record-setting carbon dioxide readings, forecasts for a very strong El Niño, and an early start to tropical disturbances are all feeding uncertainty as hurricane season ramps up. In parallel, drought, wildfire impacts, and stressed ecosystems are keeping clima
By the time the first tropical disturbance spun up in the Pacific, the checklist was already long—because this season, the threats aren’t lining up one by one. They’re stacking.
Hurricane season began June 1 in the Atlantic, but attention quickly shifted eastward to the Pacific, where tropical activity has already started. Tropical Storm Amanda formed in the Pacific on the first day of the Atlantic hurricane season. The Pacific season itself began May 15.
National Hurricane Center Director Michael Brennan. speaking as Atlantic preparations took shape. put the focus on what people can control: “There are a lot of things to think about.” The message he delivered carried a practical comfort—many of the same steps “work for any other kind of disaster too.”.
The reason the advice lands with urgency is that forecasters are watching multiple climate forces at once. Ocean temperatures along the Equator in the Pacific have been rising. and more scientists are forecasting the formation of a very strong El Niño later this year. The United Nations issued a dire warning about the global influence of the pattern. warning that it will arrive on top of what is already warmer-than-normal ocean conditions.
That timing matters for storms. The latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is due in the coming week, and the climate pattern is widely expected to influence hurricane seasons in both the Pacific and the Atlantic.
All of that uncertainty is unfolding while the atmosphere keeps signaling that the baseline is changing. On June 4. the University of California San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography reported that atmospheric carbon dioxide levels broke records again at the Mauna Loa observatory in Hawaii in May. Carbon dioxide levels were measured at 432 parts per million in May—1.8 parts per million over the May 2025 measurement. Scripps said it continues a “long trend of record-breaking annual peak readings.”.
Ralph Keeling. director of the Scripps CO2 Program. said: “Atmospheric CO₂ has continued its relentless rise over the past year. reaching yet another record high and moving us deeper into a high-CO₂ world.” Keeling noted that his father launched the monitoring effort at Mauna Loa in 1958. recording an initial measurement of 313 ppm on March 29. 1958. Since then, carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have risen by more than a third.
While people plan for what storms could do. other parts of the country are grappling with what dry conditions already have. After a dry winter for many parts of the United States. a series of related problems has been reported across the country. The lack of winter rain and the prolonged western drought have experts predicting another dry winter will “crash” the Colorado River. the Arizona Republic reported.
Fire risk is also moving from background fear to headline cost. A recent report found the globe experienced some of its most destructive and deadly fire events in history in 2025. A May 31 study highlighted an ongoing trend toward wildfires becoming increasingly extreme. costly. and disastrous—both economically and in lives lost. Matthew Jones of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia in the U.K. said: “We are seeing a growing disconnect between total area burned and real-world impacts. with risk increasingly determined by fire location. intensity and exposure.”.
And ecosystems are showing strain in ways that don’t always make immediate headlines. but can still reshape risk on the ground. In Florida, invasive species already pose a threat; some worry it could worsen. The Asian swamp eel. a snake-like fish popular in Asian cuisine. is described as eating its way from the bottom up—decimating the food chain at its roots and causing an avalanche of prey loss for everything that follows.
In Michigan, researchers reported that there are more harmful toxins in Lake Erie algae than previously thought. “We look for those four big, EPA-monitored cyanotoxins, which is still valid; it helps protect public health. But we are probably missing a huge part of the story. ” said Lauren Hart. a former doctoral student at U-M and lead author of two studies published this year on Lake Erie’s harmful algal blooms.
Even the coastline isn’t isolated from uncertainty. Sea turtle nesting season is underway along Florida beaches, and a rare Olive Ridley turtle crawled ashore and left its eggs for the first time on record in the state.
The sequence across the country is hard to ignore: warnings about El Niño formation and its storm implications arrive as carbon dioxide records keep breaking. while drought and wildfire trends intensify pressure on communities. Even in areas far from the coast. the same season-length pressures show up—water stress. toxic algae. invasive species. and shifting wildlife behavior.
For now. the practical takeaway Brennan emphasized still fits the moment: “a lot of these preparations” for hurricanes can translate to other disasters too. With the forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration expected in the coming week. the next question for many Americans is simple—how fast will preparation become habit before the next shock hits?.
El Niño hurricane season Atlantic hurricane season Tropical Storm Amanda Mauna Loa carbon dioxide records NOAA forecast drought Colorado River wildfires 2025 Lake Erie algae cyanotoxins invasive species Florida sea turtles Olive Ridley turtle