5 Overvalued Fantasy Football Quarterbacks Based On 2026 ADP

Calling a fantasy football player overvalued is not the same as calling him bad. Every quarterback on this list belongs inside ESPN’s top 20 at the position. The question is whether each player deserves to be ranked as highly as he currently is compared with his average draft position across other prominent fantasy platforms.

Identifying overvalued quarterbacks is particularly difficult. Most traditional leagues start only eight to 12 quarterbacks each week, although superflex and larger formats can push that number beyond 20. That typically leaves managers with several dependable options.

For this ranking, ESPN’s quarterback rankings were compared with ADP information from Footballguys, DraftSharks, and Sleeper. Patrick Mahomes was excluded because his recovery from a torn ACL makes his outlook unusually difficult to evaluate.

Here are five quarterbacks being ranked slightly above where fantasy managers are drafting them.

5. Brock Purdy

ESPN ranks Brock Purdy as QB12, which is almost perfectly aligned with the broader market. Footballguys also places his composite ADP at QB12. DraftSharks’ ADP lists him at QB13, while Sleeper ranks him 13th with an ADP of QB14. Those are minor differences, but they are enough to place Purdy fifth on this list.

Purdy has an excellent supporting cast that includes Mike Evans, Christian McCaffrey and, potentially, a healthy George Kittle. He also operates in one of the NFL’s most favorable offensive systems.

If Purdy reduces his turnovers, he could finish inside the top 10. However, his limited rushing production makes it difficult for him to challenge the elite fantasy quarterbacks consistently. He is only slightly overvalued at QB12 and remains a dependable selection around that range.

4. Bo Nix

The market is also slightly lower on Bo Nix than ESPN. Nix is ESPN’s QB14, but Footballguys, Sleeper, and DraftSharks all place his ADP at approximately QB15. A one-position difference is hardly alarming, although it suggests managers view him as more of a high-end backup than a reliable weekly starter.

Denver has surrounded Nix with an impressive collection of weapons. Jaylen Waddle joins Courtland Sutton and rising receivers Pat Bryant and Troy Franklin, giving head coach Sean Payton plenty of options.

Nix still needs to limit mistakes and become more consistent. A top-10 finish is possible, but it is a difficult projection to make before the season. In most one-quarterback leagues, Nix should initially be drafted as a backup with the upside to become a regular starter.

3. Jayden Daniels

Jayden Daniels is where the gap between ranking and ADP becomes more noticeable.

Several fantasy outlets rank Daniels as high as QB3, but managers appear more comfortable selecting Drake Maye, Joe Burrow and Jalen Hurts ahead of him. His ADP sits around QB5 on multiple platforms, while Sleeper ranks him sixth and gives him a QB6 ADP.

That does not mean Daniels should be avoided. A healthy Daniels remains one of fantasy football’s most exciting dual-threat quarterbacks. His rushing ability gives him an elite weekly ceiling, and Washington added Stefon Diggs to an offense that already features Terry McLaurin.

Daniels could resemble the dynamic player fantasy managers saw during his rookie season. He remains a must-start option when healthy, but selecting him as the third quarterback requires managers to pass on safer alternatives.

The market currently views him as QB5 or QB6. That feels more reasonable.

2. Tyler Shough

ESPN ranks Tyler Shough as QB17, but fantasy managers are not showing the same confidence.

Footballguys places Shough’s ADP at QB20, with Jared Goff, Kyler Murray, and Baker Mayfield frequently being selected ahead of him. That three-position difference is significant near the bottom of the top 20.

Shough also lost rookie receiver Jordyn Tyson for several months, removing a potentially important weapon from the offense. Alvin Kamara is also banged up. Chris Olave gives him a proven No. 1 option, but the overall situation still creates uncertainty.

Shough could outperform expectations in 2026. However, fantasy managers should not enter the season relying on him as their primary quarterback. He is best suited for superflex formats or as an emergency option in traditional leagues. ESPN’s QB17 ranking places too much faith in a player who still has plenty to prove.

1. Jaxson Dart

Jaxson Dart is the most overvalued quarterback based on the gap between ESPN’s ranking and his current ADP.

ESPN places Dart at QB7. Footballguys, however, lists his ADP at QB11. DraftSharks also ranks him 11th, while its ADP data shows him being selected around QB13. That is a drop of four to six positions.

Dart’s appeal is easy to understand. His mobility provides valuable rushing production, and his ability to score near the goal line raises his fantasy ceiling. He is also one of the NFL’s most exciting young quarterbacks.

Managers are still selecting Trevor Lawrence, Caleb Williams, Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott ahead of him, indicating that the public wants to see more before treating Dart as a top-seven option.

Dart can remain a weekly starter in leagues with 12 or more teams. However, drafting him at ESPN’s ranking means paying for a major breakout before it happens.

His upside is real, but so is the difference between his ranking and actual draft position. That makes Dart the most overvalued fantasy quarterback entering the 2026 season.