Zillow just revised its home price forecast for over 400 housing markets—see the map

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Zillow economists just published their updated 12-month forecast, projecting that U.S. home prices—as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index—will shift +0.0% between June 2026 and June 2027.

That’s a tiny upward revision from its 12-month national forecast published in June (-0.2%).

U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, are currently up +1.1% year-over-year. Zillow’s latest 12-month outlook (-0.1%) expects national home prices to remain near that subdued pace. As long as national home price growth remains below U.S. wage growth (currently up +3.6%), underlying fundamentals should continue to improve as the Pandemic Housing Boom’s housing demand pull ahead and overheating gets smoothed out. If that trend continues—and mortgage rates don’t spike—national housing affordability should also continue to gradually improve.

While Zillow’s national home price forecast isn’t negative—it isn’t exactly bullish either. They’re calling for a soft national housing market in 2026, one where national housing affordability may improve slightly as U.S. income growth outpaces U.S. home price growth.

What type of regional variation does Zillow anticipate over the next 12 months?

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Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price increase between June 2026 and June 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:

1. Rockford, IL → +4.3% 
2. Syracuse, NY → +3.6% 
3. Atlantic City, NJ → +3.5% 
4. Utica, NY → +3.3% 
5. Binghamton, NY → +3.3% 
6. Norwich, CT → +3.1% 
7. Erie, PA → +3.0%
8. New Haven, CT → +2.8% 
9. Green Bay, WI → +2.8% 
10. Janesville, WI → +2.8% 
11. Hartford, CT → +2.7% 
12. Rochester, NY → +2.7% 
13. Youngstown, OH → +2.7% 
14. Appleton, WI → +2.7% 
15. Knoxville, TN → +2.6% 

Among the 300 largest U.S. metro area housing markets, Zillow forecast the biggest home price decline between June 2026 and June 2027 to occur in these 15 metros:

1. Austin, TX → -6.4% 
2. Houma, LA → -6.4% 
3. Lake Charles, LA → -5.2% 
4. New Orleans, LA → -4.9% 
5. Punta Gorda, FL → -4.0% 
6. Chico, CA → -3.9%
7.  Lafayette, LA → -3.4% 
8. Texarkana, TX → -3.4% 
9. Vallejo, CA → -3.2% 
10. San Antonio, TX → -3.1%
11. San Jose, CA → -3.1%
12. Stockton, CA → -3.1% 
13. Cape Coral, FL → -3.1% 
14. Alexandria, LA → -3.1% 
15. Beaumont, TX → -3.0%

My quick take: Based on my own analysis, I believe Zillow is too short-term bearish on the New Orleans metro area housing market—which is showing signs of mild tightening after passing through a correction—and also too bearish on pockets of the Bay Area—especially San Francisco proper—which has benefited from AI boom spillover (although pockets of Oakland remain weak).

Below is what the current year-over-year rate of home price change looks like for single-family and condo home prices. The Sun Belt, in particular Southwest Florida, is currently the epicenter of housing market softness over the past year.

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