Football Observatory’s model puts Lamine Yamal at £309.4m—twice the value of Kylian Mbappé—and shows a transfer market bristling with high-priced targets as summer planning gathers pace.
The summer window is already turning into a race for signatures, with clubs sounding out targets and plotting their budgets—while one newly revealed valuation list is making the scale of the task impossible to ignore.
On Friday. Andy Robertson’s move to Tottenham from Liverpool on a free transfer was confirmed. a sign of how quickly things can shift when contracts are due and opportunities open. But the bigger talking point now is price: Football Observatory has published a ranking of the world’s most expensive footballers using a statistical model that weighs factors including age. contract status and ability.
At the very top is Barcelona and Spain’s Lamine Yamal. His estimated value is £309.4m. and the model suggests that if he were to leave Barca. teams would have to find a staggering amount of money to secure him. At 18 years old. the figure lands with plenty of context behind it—Yamal’s age and the haul of accolades already attached to his name.
Behind Yamal is Erling Haaland, valued at £196.4m. The model places him a long way back from the top spot, which it may partially reflect—at least in its own calculations—on Haaland’s age, 25, even as his relentless goal scoring and a contract running until 2034 are built into the value.
Kylian Mbappé then sits third on the list. Real Madrid’s forward is valued at £143.2m, less than half of Yamal’s figure. Mbappé is also set to lead France at the World Cup, where he will be looking to win his second Jules Rimet trophy—but his club form in recent months has been difficult.
The model adds a clear “if” to the valuation: if Mbappé, 27, were to leave, he would cost a side £143.2m. His current contract is set to run until 2029.
The top five continues to show just how wide the gap is between established superstars and the next wave. Michael Olise is valued at £121.2m and Morgan Rogers at £118.2m. Reports have linked Real Madrid with an approach for Olise. while Rogers—who is hoping to star for England at the World Cup—has been linked with Arsenal and Chelsea in recent months.
Other high entries follow the same pattern of high valuations tied to both talent and contract length: Desire Doue is listed at £115.1m, Nico O’Reilly at £108m, and Jude Bellingham at £103.9m.
Premier League interest is also built into the ranking. Florian Wirtz, 12 months on from joining Liverpool for £116m, would cost £107.2m under the model. Bukayo Saka is valued at £96.1m, and Cole Palmer at £95.6m.
Former Manchester United man Rasmus Hojlund. who left for Napoli permanently this week in a deal worth £38m. is reportedly worth £87m—around the figure United initially paid for him. PSG’s Champions League final hero Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, 25, has a contract until 2029 and is valued at a reported £87.2m.
The list is packed with players from teams with recent continental weight—PSG. runners-up Arsenal. and other sides rooted in Europe’s latest elite cycle. Still, one entry stands out as a surprise when placed against that backdrop: Bournemouth’s Brazilian forward Rayan. He joined Bournemouth as Antoine Semenyo’s replacement in January, and is valued at £86.7m.
A little further down, the list turns toward players whose price tags may feel more like negotiation territory than headline business. The most expensive Manchester United player is listed as Benjamin Sesko at £72.5m—£1.2m below the £73.7m United paid for him last summer.
Another Bournemouth name appears with a separate thread attached: Junior Kroupi is thought to be of interest to Arsenal and Chelsea this summer. The 19-year-old’s contract runs until 2030, and the model puts his price at £76.9m.
Declan Rice, despite becoming key to both club and country with England, is valued at £65.7m. The figure would represent a significant loss against the £105m Arsenal forked out in 2023. Nicolas Jackson is valued at £60.6m, Amad Diallo at £59.5m, and Jobe Bellingham at £56.9m.
The numbers are stark enough on their own—Yamal at £309.4m and Mbappé at £143.2m—but they land with extra force because they arrive at the exact moment clubs are preparing to spend. With Robertson already moving on a free transfer from Liverpool to Tottenham. the market’s tone feels set: contracts. timing. and valuation figures are converging into a summer where the richest offers will be measured in hundreds of millions.
Lamine Yamal Erling Haaland Kylian Mbappé Football Observatory transfer window valuation list Premier League Tottenham Andy Robertson Jude Bellingham Florian Wirtz Bukayo Saka Cole Palmer Rasmus Hojlund