‘WTF is Up With These Polls?’ Experts Flummoxed by Stunning 20-Point Misfire in Wisconsin Primary
(Hong campaign via AP)
Critics were baffled and lashing out Wednesday at the quality of primary polling in Wisconsin after Democratic Socialist Francesca Hong lost to fellow Democrat David Crowley in the race for the governor’s office.
Crowley, 40, defeated Hong by 3,000 votes and will take on Trump-backed Rep. Tom Tiffany (R-WI) in November.
Polling had consistently ranked Hong — who made headlines for past remarks about Thanksgiving and her “proximity to whiteness” — well above Crowley by a margin of roughly 20 points, critics pointed out.
One poll released earlier this week showed Hong at 46% to Crowley’s 23%.
“Hong might come back, but wtf is up with these primary polls?” pollster Nate Silver asked on X Tuesday night.
Silver went on to note the difficulty of polling primaries.
To answer my own question: a lot of polls now are basically models, but primaries are very hard to model from first principles, whereas general elections are relatively easy given very high partisanship and usually predictable demographic relationships,” he said in another post.
Fox News Digital Columnist Dave Marcus also took issue with the polling in Wisconsin, calling it “grotesque.”
Some claimed primary polling should be ignored altogether, with political scientist Larry Sabato specifically calling out Wisconsin and Michigan, where progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed defeated Rep. Haley Stevens (D-MI) in the Democratic primary for Senate.
“What amazes me is that just a few days ago, the same polling train wreck happened in Michigan. Few learned anything,” he added in a subsequent post.
Pollster Frank Luntz agreed.
Patrick Ruffini, a pollster for Echelon Insights, pumped the brakes on talk of mistakes in the process.
“Before we talk polling error: Hong will very likely hit what the polls said she’d get. The election was polarized for and against her and polls are still a crude measure for consolidation, which only happens at the very end,” he wrote.
Sarah Longwell, publisher of The Bulwark, had predicted a close race.
“I think it’s just going to be closer than what it seems like,” she said Tuesday on The Next Level podcast, pointing to primary polls that missed el-Sayed’s Michigan victory.
The post ‘WTF is Up With These Polls?’ Experts Flummoxed by Stunning 20-Point Misfire in Wisconsin Primary first appeared on Mediaite.