Exeter vs – A Bristol win over Bath has blown the Premiership playoff picture wide open, setting up a decisive Exeter Chiefs vs Saracens showdown at Sandy Park. With Exeter and Saracens separated by three points and Saracens chasing a spot without margin for error, the fi
For weeks, the last round of Premiership Rugby fixtures looked like it might end with little more than a nod and a handshake. Bath and Northampton Saints were running away with the top two, and anyone watching could almost already hear the talk of a Bath vs Saints final on June 20.
Then Bristol Bears upset Bath 21-19 at Ashton Gate last Saturday, and suddenly the playoff race didn’t look like a formality at all. The top two stumbles and the resurgence from the chasing pack turned a dead rubber into a final-day test of nerves, calculations, and belief.
Northampton Saints have already secured a home playoff, but beyond that, there is plenty still on the line. Exeter Chiefs and Saracens now head toward the biggest sort of season-swinging match: they meet with just three points separating them. with Exeter fourth and Saracens fifth going into the last round.
Exeter Chiefs vs Saracens
Chiefs and Saracens enter the matchup knowing it could decide who stays in the playoff conversation. The standings are tight: Exeter are fourth and Saracens fifth, separated by only three points.
Exeter come in on top of the two heading into the day but on the back of troubling form. having lost three of their last five games. Their direction, however, was loud in their most recent result: Exeter beat Tigers 35-26 last time out. That win keeps them in the driving seat for the clash at Sandy Park.
Saracens’ run has a different kind of momentum. They have put together six wins in a row going into the final round, including a crucial 19-15 win over Leicester to keep their hopes alive.
But there is no hiding in the pressure for Saracens. Lose on Saturday and the North London club would miss the playoffs two years in a row for the first time in their history.
Exeter, meanwhile, carry their own stakes into the stadium where the atmosphere could decide everything. Twenty of Rob Baxter’s squad are leaving at the end of the season. Among the names most closely watched are Australians Len Ikitau and Scott Sio and Wales forward Christ Tshiunza.
Ikitau’s next step has already been mapped out. He is heading back to Australia to be eligible for selection at the 2027 World Cup. The source of his decision includes a detail that matters to players and coaches: Australia has scrapped ‘Giteau’s law’. the restriction that affected coaches selecting Australians playing overseas—meaning Ikitau could have stayed in Exeter and still been eligible.
Speaking to Daily Mail Sport this week. Ikitau didn’t try to soften the feeling of a match that could define his final home game. “Hopefully we’ll be able to win something. It’s another man test against Saracens. They like to bully teams but we’re going to rip into it,” he said. “We need to front up and be physical. It’s a quarter-final and our last home game at Sandy Park. The winner goes through and the loser doesn’t make the finals. There’s plenty to play for.”.
The match itself is already shaping up with injury and selection pressure. Exeter will be without winger Immanuel Feyi-Waboso for their biggest game of the season. He sustained a facial injury that requires surgery. Exeter will have to adjust in a role that mattered last time out: Feyi-Waboso had been the star against Leicester.
The Chiefs will look to young winger Campbell Ridl to fill the void. The expectation is that he’ll step up from earlier impressive performances earlier this season.
Saracens’ situation is tied as much to leadership as it is to tactics. Mark McCall. their director of rugby and one of the defining figures in the club’s modern history. is stepping down from his role. He announced his decision in January. If Saracens fail to win on Saturday, the trophy-laden tenure of McCall could end by evening.
McCall leaves as the most successful coach in Premiership Rugby history, having masterminded six domestic titles and three European crowns.
Maro Itoje and the group around him will be hoping to delay that departure. They’ve already shown they can string together form—six wins in a row heading into the final round—and they’ll be chasing a result that keeps the season’s story moving for longer.
Ahead of this must-win game, Saracens have made bold calls. Noah Caluori, Owen Farrell, and Nick Isiekwe all start on the bench. Tom Willis starts at eight. a decision that underlines how much this weekend could mean for both club and individual futures. given it could also be his and McCall’s last game together for Saracens.
Bath vs Leicester Tigers
While Exeter and Saracens fight for the right to keep their season alive, Bath and Leicester Tigers go head-to-head in a direct clash over position and advantage.
Second plays third in a straight shootout for the advantage of a home semi-final. This is a replay of last year’s final, when Bath beat Tigers 23-21 at Twickenham. That match was decided by a controversial yellow card awarded to Dan Cole in his last professional game.
The emotional narrative around this one has shifted. Bath’s reputation as an unstoppable juggernaut has taken a hit recently. They have lost four of their last five games. with defeats coming at the hands of Exeter Chiefs. Northampton Saints. and Bristol Bears. Their only win in recent weeks came against rock bottom Newcastle Red Bulls.
Leicester, though, have been finding their form at the right time. In May, they dismantled rivals Saints 42-17 at Welford Road on their way to winning seven of the last nine. But last week, they were hit at home: Exeter beat them 35-26, leaving the Tigers still able to finish fourth.
Bath’s selection is the key headline in this matchup. Finn Russell is absent. The Scotland fly-half was pulled out of training last week and missed Bath’s 21-19 loss to Bristol on Friday.
Bath head of rugby Johann van Graan gave the reasoning after that game. “He’s got a tight calf. I pulled him out of training early in the week. We have already qualified for a semi-final… On the 13th we are playing a semi-final, and we want our best available team ready for then.”
Even without Russell, Bath have options. At fly-half, Argentina star Santi Carreras starts. He will be aiming to make amends for the missed 56-metre penalty that ultimately cost Bath the win against Bristol at Ashton Gate.
What matters across both matches is where everyone finishes in the standings. There are multiple permutations tied to the outcome of Bath vs Leicester and Exeter vs Saracens.
In the schedule of scenarios described, a Bath win vs Leicester could bring 0 or 1 losing bonus points, depending on how the game turns out. If Bath win and Exeter also win vs Saracens, the standings could land Bath in second, Exeter in third, and Leicester in fourth.
If Bath win vs Leicester with 2 losing bonus points, and Exeter win vs Saracens, then the order could be Bath second, Exeter third, and Leicester fourth.
If Leicester win vs Bath and Saracens win vs Exeter, then it could shift to Leicester second, Bath third, and Saracens fourth.
If Leicester win vs Bath and Saracens win vs Exeter but Saracens score 2 losing bonus points, the order could become Leicester second, Bath third, and Exeter fourth.
If Bath draw vs Leicester and Exeter draw vs Saracens, then the order described could be Bath second, Exeter third, and Leicester fourth.
In the scenario where Bath loses vs Exeter with 0 points, and Exeter win vs Saracens with bonus points, the described outcome is Leicester second, Exeter third, and Bath fourth.
The final-day picture is still crowded with moving pieces, but the touchpoints are clear: Exeter and Saracens are locked into their own high-stakes fight, while Bath and Leicester are wrestling for the advantage of a home semi-final.
At the Rec. Leicester have the kind of selection that suggests they’re preparing for a run. not just the next whistle. South African Thomas du Toit and England’s Alfie Barbery both start what could be their final game in front of a home crowd at the Rec. England star Guy Pepper is being rested by van Graan in favour of academy product Ewan Richards.
Leicester’s coaching story has also quietly become part of the match narrative. Whether they finish second or fourth. Leicester Tigers look to have found their first long-term coach in years in Geoff Parling. Parling previously won two Premierships with Leicester as a player. and he says much of his coaching is inspired by watching Aussie Rules.
Parling arrived after the departure of Australian Michael Cheika in the summer—Leicester’s fourth coach in as many seasons. Since taking charge, he’s done more than steady the ship. The description from the source is that he has made Leicester entertaining.
Tom Varndell, a former Tigers winger, reacted on BBC Radio Leicester: “We’ve never seen Leicester do this, they are playing with freedom and backing their skills.”
Freddie Steward adds a different angle on what’s being built. England and Tigers fullback Freddie Steward says: “The traditional (Tigers) DNA is gritty, tight rugby. We still have that, but we have tried to add an attacking mindset.”
Steward won’t be available for Saturday’s clash, but Leicester are otherwise described as being at full strength. Former Bath centre Orlando Bailey gets the nod at 12 as they look to host a home semi-final for the first time since the departure of current England coach Steve Borthwick in 2022.
Put together, the weekend has the feeling of consequences arriving all at once. A single result at Ashton Gate has changed everything. Now Exeter and Saracens meet with season-defining pressure on both clubs. while Bath and Leicester stage a straight shootout for advantage—complete with multiple permutations that could turn a quiet top-four reshuffle into a full-blown fight for who gets to keep hope alive beyond the final round.
PREM Rugby Exeter Chiefs Saracens Bath Leicester Tigers Northampton Saints Bristol Bears playoff race Finn Russell Mark McCall Len Ikitau Immanuel Feyi-Waboso Santi Carreras Dan Cole