Who to watch in Michigan State vs Toledo and score prediction

Michigan State QB Alessio Milivojevic on first year as starter
Michigan State football QB Alessio Milivojevic discusses what’s different now that he enters the 2026 season as a starter on Tuesday, Sept. 1, 2026.
Looking ahead to the Spartans’ season opener Friday, Sept. 4, against Toledo:
Fast facts
Matchup: Michigan State (4-8, 1-8 Big Ten in 2025) vs. Toledo (8-5, 6-2 Mid-American Conference in 2025).
When: 8 p.m. Friday.
Where: Spartan Stadium, East Lansing.
TV/radio: FS1, WJR-AM (760).
Line: Spartans by 10.
Injury report
MSU
Out: None reported.
Toledo
Out: None reported.
Scouting report
When MSU has the ball: Back are quarterback Alessio Milivojevic, wide receiver Chrishon McCray and offensive lineman Conner Moore as returning starters. The rest of the Spartans’ starters are expected to be new under first-year coach Pat Fitzgerald, who went heavy on adding experienced transfers who produced at previous stops. That included a revamped offensive line alongside Moore that will feature left tackle Ben Murawski, guard Nick Sharpe and center Trent Fraley. Running back Cam Edwards ran for 1,240 yards last season at Connecticut behind behemoth Murawski, and coaches have raved about Western Kentucky transfer Marvis Parrish during preseason camp.
Milivojevic started MSU’s final four games last season, including a win over Maryland to prevent going winless in the Big Ten, and the third-year sophomore will have a cadre of new receivers to go with McCray, along with returnees Rodney Bullard Jr. and Charles Taplin. That group includes Power 4 transfers KK Smith and Fredrick Moore. Brennan Parachek is expected to start at tight end, but keep an eye on redshirt freshman Jayden Savoury and versatile Division II transfer Carson Gulker.
Toledo’s defense, with new coordinator Jahmal Brown, welcomes in the Football Championship Subdivision’s defensive player of the year in Andrew Zock, who followed Brown and the Rockets’ new staff from Mercer. Toledo mined the lower divisions of college football to boost their roster, including bringing safety Kaleb Hutchinson from Mercer, to blend with carryovers from the previous program.
When Toledo has the ball: Joe Rossi is back for his third season as MSU’s defensive coordinator, keeping his aggressive approach while adding co-coordinator/linebackers coach Max Bullough and cornerbacks coach Hank Poteat, who both have NFL playing experience. The Spartans return veterans down the middle with linebacker Jordan Hall, safety Nikai Martinez and defensive tackle Ben Roberts, but plenty of new faces will surround them after a strong finish to the 2025 season.
Edge Kenny Soares Jr. arrives to blend with returning defensive end Anelu Lafaele and Isaac Smith to help bolster the pass rush. Along with transfer Eli Coenen, the defensive tackle spot brings back some young talent in Derrick Simmons and Mikeshun Beeler. In the secondary, cornerbacks Tre Bell, Tyran Chappell and Charles Brantley bring experience, as does safety transfer Devin Vaught next to Martinez. Some freshmen to keep an eye on include linebacker Adam Shaw, safety Jonathan Granby and defensive end Cory House Jr.
The Rockets plan to use two quarterbacks, with returning starter John Alan Richter blending with run-threat Division II transfer Khamoni Robinson to try and keep MSU’s defense off balance. Toledo returns four offensive linemen with significant experience to block for former Mercer running backs Autavius Ison and CJ Miller from an offense that averaged 36.2 points and made the FCS playoffs last season. Wide receiver Rico Bond, a transfer from Lindenwood, also has the Spartans’ attention after he was a finalist for the Jerry Rice Award for the top FCS freshman after catching 61 passes for 701 yards and six touchdowns.
Know the foe
Regime change: Like MSU, Toledo has a new head coach. Unlike Fitzgerald’s arrival, the Rockets lost longtime and successful leader Jason Candle to a better job at Connecticut. Enter Mike Jacobs, a former Ohio State offensive lineman/long snapper for Jim Tressel who brought much of his staff and 14 players from Mercer of the Football Championship Subdivision. Jacobs and Co. went 19-4 in two seasons at the Georgia school, including the Bears’ first two conference championships since restarting their program in 2013 and a pair of FCS playoff appearances. Jacobs is 94-23 (.803) as a head coach between his stops at Mercer and in Division II.
Sustained success: Despite the coaching change, Toledo has been historically one of the top programs in the MAC. The Rockets finished second last season and are projected among the top three in the league again this season after reaching an eighth bowl game in 10 seasons under Candle, who was 81-45 with two MAC titles. Toledo has won its division 13 times since 1997 and also won the league championship in 1990 in former MSU coach and defensive coordinator’s Nick Saban’s lone season in the Glass City, his first head coaching job in his legendary Hall of Fame career.
Familiar face: Armorion Smith’s story of personal perseverance was one of the most impactful in recent MSU memory, and the senior from River Rouge transferred to Toledo during the offseason for his final season of eligibility. Smith, who began his career at Cincinnati before moving to East Lansing in 2023 after his mother’s cancer diagnosis, started seven games last season for the Spartans and had 35 tackles and an interception, a fumble recovery and also forced another fumble. He had 61 tackles in 23 games at MSU.
Two cents
Welcome Pat: It has been 20 years since Fitzgerald made his head coaching debut, a 21-3 victory over Miami (Ohio) to begin his 17-year tenure at his alma mater Northwestern. Since 1947, when Biggie Munn took over the program, five coaches have won their MSU debut games: Jonathan Smith in 2024, Mark Dantonio in 2007, John L. Smith in 2003, Bobby Williams in 2000 and George Perles in 1983.
Long ago: Despite the relative proximity and conference crossover competition, the Spartans and Rockets have only played once before – a 58-0 MSU victory on Nov. 8, 1925, at Spartan Stadium. The Spartans are 12-0 in home Friday night games since 2011, and they are 24-3 in their last 27 season openers. MSU’s only home-opening loss in that time came in Mel Tucker’s debut against Rutgers in 2020, and the Spartans have won 25 straight home openers against non-conference opponents since 1999.
Prediction
MSU 24, Toledo 14: Expect this to be a ground-dominated type of game – especially if heavy rains that are predicted do indeed douse Spartan Stadium – that Fitzgerald wants to be the Spartans’ identity moving forward. MSU wants and needs to see its run game show progress and will feed Edwards behind the reconfigured offensive line to grind down the Rockets in the second half for a tone-setting victory and start to Fitzgerald’s tenure.
Contact Chris Solari: csolari@freepress.com. Follow him @chrissolari.
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