Which sleepers could make the College Football Playoff? 10 teams that can beat the odds

Indiana has given hope to college football teams around the country after making the Playoff in 2024 and winning the national championship in 2025. So which sleeper teams could emerge in 2026?

The Athletic launched its College Football Playoff projections on Wednesday, powered by Austin Mock’s model that simulates the season 100,000 times. Here, Austin and Scott Dochterman convene to pick CFP sleepers from the Power 4 conferences (under 15 percent to make the bracket) and the Group of 6 (under 6 percent).

ACC

Mock: Louisville (13.9%). Under Jeff Brohm, Louisville has been ascending, but the theme has been close losses to derail its chances. Seven of the Cardinals’ eight losses over the past two seasons have been by a touchdown or less. So I’ll take a chance on the Cardinals in hopes that the close game luck will go their way. Factor in that they avoid Miami and play the 12th-easiest schedule in the ACC, per my model, and the path is there. They’ll be giving the reins to Ohio State transfer quarterback Lincoln Kienholz, who pushed Julian Sayin for the starting job in Columbus last year. A lot swings on their Week 1 matchup with Ole Miss in Nashville, but I’m happy to back Brohm against a favorable ACC schedule when all they have to do is win a conference that had a chaotic race last season.

Dochterman: Virginia (9.6%). The Hoos were close to the CFP last year before falling in overtime to Duke in the ACC championship. Virginia won a school-record 11 games and returns the Power 4’s most experienced roster. So at 9.6 percent to make the Playoff, the Cavaliers are a quality bet. They have the ACC’s most advantageous schedule by missing Miami, Clemson and Louisville. An overhauled passing game, led by Missouri transfer quarterback Beau Pribula, could vault Virginia back into the CFP discussion just in time to play rivals North Carolina and Virginia Tech to end the season.

Big 12

Mock: Kansas State (10.9%). My model pegs the Wildcats as a fringe Top 25 team, but they play the second-easiest schedule in the Big 12 and avoid Texas Tech. When talking about sleepers, there has to be an identifiable path. An easy schedule is a good way to rack up double-digit wins. But the reason I’m most excited about Kansas State as a sleeper is that I’m a believer in new head coach Collin Klein, who returns to Manhattan from Texas A&M. A 2012 Heisman finalist quarterback for the Wildcats, he was their offensive coordinator in 2022-23 — two of former coach Chris Klieman’s best teams. Factor in his success as OC with Texas A&M the past two years, and I think there is some upside with quarterback Avery Johnson and the offense.

Dochterman: Houston (10.9%). I was a bit surprised the Cougars fell under 15 percent, so I happily scooped them up for this exercise. Willie Fritz has become a miracle worker throughout his coaching career, and after a 10-win season in 2025, he just might push Houston into the CFP. The Cougars return veteran Conner Weigman at quarterback and add the nation’s No. 1 recruit in quarterback Keisean Henderson. With plenty of returning starters coupled with impact transfers like running back Makai Hughes, Houston has the pieces to play upper-echelon Big 12 football. Depending on its results with Texas Tech (Sept. 18) and Utah (Oct. 24), Houston could be in the CFP discussion all the way through Selection Sunday.

Big Ten

Mock: UCLA (3.6%). I’m not here to say the Bob Chesney is the next Curt Cignetti, but his track record of winning football games is impressive. Chesney won at least nine games in his final three years at Division-II Assumption, a number the program didn’t achieve for the next six seasons. He won double-digit games twice at FCS Holy Cross, a feat it hadn’t achieved since 1991. The guy can win, and he can do so at programs that aren’t a well-oiled machine. Chesney, who replaced Cignetti at James Madison, brings over plenty of talent from his JMU team that made the Playoff last year — and he also now has a former five-star quarterback recruit in Nico Iamaleava. The Bruins also play the third-easiest schedule in the Big Ten by avoiding Ohio State and Indiana.

Dochterman: Iowa (12.2%). According to Austin’s model, the Hawkeyes fall just below the 15 percent threshold, which puts them in prime territory to qualify as a sleeper. Iowa lost to Oregon and Indiana by a combined seven points last year, and this year’s schedule is a bit more advantageous holistically. However, a Big Ten opening stretch at Michigan, vs. Ohio State and then a Friday game at Washington could sink Iowa before mid-October. But if the Hawkeyes can win one of those games, they can remain in CFP contention all season. Iowa’s final six games come against the old Big Ten West, against which it is 12-1 since 2023. If the Hawkeyes can sort out quarterback and kicker while accelerating defensive line play, they can be in the conversation.

SEC

Mock: Vanderbilt (5.2%). Backing Vanderbilt after the departure of Heisman runner-up Diego Pavia is tough, but luckily, there is talent to replace him. Five-star freshman Jared Curtis didn’t win the job right out of camp, but he is slated to play in the opener. And considering the first two games are against Austin Peay and Delaware, there is a chance we see Curtis starting before too long. If Curtis can come in and play to his potential early, the case for Vandy as a sleeper team isn’t hard to get behind. While no schedule is easy in the SEC, Vanderbilt does face the third-easiest slate in the conference. Outside of the road trip to Georgia and a home game against Alabama, Vanderbilt should be playing in a bunch of single-digit games. Curtis could be the difference-maker.

Dochterman: Missouri (9%). The Tigers come in at 9 percent, which makes sense considering they play four CFP teams from 2025 plus SEC favorite Texas. But Missouri has a potentially explosive offense that could allow its defense to catch up by October when its schedule really ramps up. Ole Miss transfer Austin Simmons has mountains of potential and takes over at quarterback. Running back Ahmad Hardy, who was a Doak Walker Award finalist, was shot in the leg in May and still hasn’t practiced, but he could return soon. Should the defense come through and the Tigers notch an upset or two, the finale against old Big Eight rival Oklahoma could determine a CFP spot.

Group of 6

Mock: Army (5.5%). The theme of my sleepers is easy paths to winning double-digit games, and Army fits the bill. The Black Knights face the second-easiest schedule in the American Conference, and they get South Florida in Week 2 — perhaps before USF starts clicking under new coach Brian Hartline. The schedule is so favorable that my model has Army favored in every game but two (at Memphis, vs. Navy). I think the offensive line can be a strength, and this season could play out similarly to 2024 when it finished 12-2 — only Notre Dame isn’t on the schedule this time.

Dochterman: New Mexico (4.4%). There’s a big question mark at quarterback with incumbent Jack Layne out following offseason elbow surgery. But third-year Luke Moga, a former four-star prospect from Oregon, has flashed during camp. Beyond quarterback, New Mexico returns one of the nation’s more experienced rosters after finishing 9-4 last year in a breakthrough season under coach Jason Eck. Mountain West games against probable challengers North Dakota State and UNLV are both in Albuquerque. If the Lobos compete in an early-season road trip to Oklahoma and sweep the conference, they should become a CFP contender.