With the Falcons and running back Bijan Robinson working out a new contract, many assume that the Lions and running back Jahmyr Gibbs will go next — and quickly.
And while it’s possible that having Robinson’s terms in place will make it easier for Gibbs, there’s an even better chance (as we understand it) that the Robinson contract will become an impediment.
Yes, Robinson reset the market at the position, bumping the new-money APY from $20.6 million to $22.25 million. It’s hard to find much fault with a new record deal.
But the market for running backs continues to languish. Sure, it’s gotten somewhat better in recent years. It’s still far behind where it should be. If Gibbs is determined to take it where it should go, the Robinson contract becomes a ball and chain to that effort.
The Lions will say, “The market is the market.” They’ll assume it’s good enough to pay Gibbs $23 million per year in new money or maybe even $22.5 million or perhaps as little as $22.26 million.
Gibbs can counter by pointing to his impact on the offense. In 2025, he had 1,929 yards from scrimmage and 20 total touchdowns. Last year, he had 1,839 yards from scrimmage and 18 total touchdowns. He finished third on the team in receiving yards, with 616.
Then there’s the fact that the Lions have moved on from David Montgomery. They’ll rely even more on Gibbs in 2026. It gives Gibbs leverage.
The team’s current posture fuels his case, too. They finished fourth in the NFC North last year. The offense, despite the presence of a weapon like Gibbs, sputtered relative to the Ben Johnson era. The Lions need the offense, and the team overall, to perform better this year. Another failure to make the playoffs will make key seats hot in 2027. That gives Gibbs even more leverage.
From the franchise’s perspective, the Lions won’t want to blow up the running back market. Beyond the realities of the salary cap, other teams will frown upon a contract that makes it more expensive for them to sign their own running backs to new deals, since those players will say, “The market is the market.”
It’s an example of the sometimes subtle, sometimes not, collusion that absolutely exists in the NFL. Teams that do unconventional things aren’t simply ridiculed by other clubs. They’re resented. An outlier deal makes it harder for the result of the league to do business on their terms.
Through it all, the clock is ticking. The regular season is coming. The Lions need Gibbs on the practice field. They’ll need him to be playing in games.
For Gibbs, who is 24 and has had three Pro Bowl seasons, this is his one chance to truly break the bank. He should hold firm for what he has earned, and what he has earned is objectively more than $22.56 million or $22.5 million or $23 million per year.
On Tuesday, the Ravens gave receiver Zay Flowers a new deal worth $35 million per year in new money. And while it’s apples and oranges on the surface, all of the fruit ends up in the same basket. At this point in time, Gibbs is a much more valuable piece than Flowers. Why should the bright lines of the by-position market change that?
It all comes down to Gibbs’s resolve. At some point, the Lions will have no choice but to blink. The question is whether he’ll hold firm until that happens.
The predicament is one of the basic realities of the draft system. If a team turns its lottery ticket into a big winner (which the Lions did with Gibbs), the team ultimately pays the jackpot to the player.
The better the player, the bigger the jackpot. And Gibbs is in line for a very big jackpot.