Click here for a look at the Bears’ best-case scenario.
Bears coach Ben Johnson doesn’t like to talk about last season. But just three days into training camp, he let slip a popular talking point — and motivation tactic — for this year’s team.
“Well, we’re the No. 1 regression candidate,” he claimed.
No one turned the ball over less last year than the Bears. Or forced more takeaways. Or recovered a higher percentage of their own fumbles. Or had more fourth-quarter comebacks. Those reasons — combined with the fact the Bears are going from playing a last-place schedule to a first-place one — makes this year’s challenge completely different than Johnson’s first season.
“I think we’ve got plenty of motivation,” he said.
Draw up a worst-case scenario for the Bears this season, and all those outliers return to back to normal, exposing a defensive unit that was, by many other measures, an abomination last year.
Only five teams gave up more points on drives that didn’t end with a takeaway. Only nine gave up more points, period. Those nine — the Cowboys, Jets, Bengals, Cardinals, Titans, Commanders, Giants, Raiders and Dolphins — combined to win 41 out of 152 games. None made the playoffs. More than half fired their head coach in disgust.
The Bears won the NFC North because they led the NFL with 33 takeaways. Takeaway stats typically don’t carry over from one year to the next, though. They’re like bullpens — or puck luck.
In 2023, the Ravens and Giants led the NFL with 31 takeaways. The next year, the Ravens had 17 and the Giants 15.
In 2024, The Vikings and Steelers led the league with 33 apiece. The next year, the Steelers had 27 and the Vikings 21.
The one team in the last five years to defy that trend was the Cowboys, who led the NFL in takeaways in both 2021 and 2022. Their defensive backs coach during that time, Al Harris, is entering his second season with the Bears. The team is testing his ability to produce their next generation of ballhawks, though. The Bears let the NFL’s interceptions leader, safety Kevin Byard, hit free agency and join former coach Mike Vrabel in New England. Cornerback Nahshon Wright, who led all NFL players with eight takeaways last season — five interceptions and three fumble recoveries — signed with the Jets.
The Bears acknowledged their defensive shortcomings, adding speed in safeties Coby Bryant and Dillion Thieneman and linebacker Devin Bush — only to watch Bryant hurt his knee, keeping him out until at least December. Slot cornerback Kyler Gordon might not ever play for the Bears again because of a mysterious calf injury. At the least, he’ll miss the first four games.
And, oh yeah, the Bears didn’t add a relevant edge rusher.
How is the Bears defense supposed to be better?
The team’s worst-case scenario features quarterback Caleb Williams being forced to race teams to 35 to make up for a popgun defense. Johnson won’t shy away from being aggressive — It’s the responsibility of the offense to score every time we hit the grass,” he said — but a pass-heavy, play-from-behind gameplan runs the risk of instilling bad habits into the young quarterback.
The watchwords for Williams’ improvement this offseason — accuracy, efficiency, getting off to a hot start — have nothing to do with playing with his hair on fire. Rather, he needs to do simple better. His completion percentage of 65% on passes 10 yards or fewer was second-worst in the NFL last year. He completed 45% of passes of 11-20 yards, the fifth-worst.
There’s nothing more important this season than Williams’ development. If the wheels come off the defense and the Bears have to spend all season chasing points, Williams’ growth will be stunted.
If that happens, the Bears are in trouble. The NFC North had the NFL’s best-ever win rate in 2024. Last year, every team had a winning record.
There’s no margin for error. Or regression.