consumer inflation – Stocks kept climbing through Wall Street’s eighth straight winning week, but a University of Michigan survey showed consumer sentiment falling to a record low as people expect inflation to worsen.
NEW YORK — Wall Street kept winning Friday as U.S. stocks reached the finish of an eighth straight winning week, the best run since 2023. The market’s optimism, though, stood in stark contrast to how many Americans are feeling at kitchen tables.
The S&P 500 rose 0.4% and moved closer to an all-time high set in the middle of last week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 294 points, or 0.6%. The Nasdaq composite added 0.2%.
Corporate results helped pull equities higher. Ross Stores surged 8.1% after the off-price retailer reported profit and revenue for the latest quarter that easily cleared analysts’ expectations. CEO Jim Conroy said the company saw strong customer traffic through the three months. and it may have benefited from households spending their tax refunds.
Estee Lauder jumped 11.9% after saying it was no longer considering a possible merger with Puig, the Spanish fragrance and beauty products company. Workday rose 5.2%, and Zoom Communications jumped 9.2% after both delivered better profit reports for the latest quarter than analysts expected.
The wave of upbeat earnings for the start of 2026 has kept U.S. stocks near records, with stock prices tending to follow corporate profits over the long term.
But the survey data landed with a different message. A University of Michigan survey found consumer sentiment fell to a record low, piercing below a bottom in 2022 when inflation peaked above 9%. People are worried about how bad inflation is now, blaming expensive oil tied to the war with Iran.
In the survey, U.S. consumers forecast inflation will worsen to 4.8% in the coming 12 months, up from 4.7% last month. Their longer-run inflation forecast rose to 3.9% from 3.5% last month. Economists have been watching those changes closely, saying rising expectations can push behavior that makes inflation harder to tame.
The drop in sentiment was especially steep for lower-income consumers, who are least able to absorb higher costs for essentials. The survey also showed sentiment falling for Republicans.
What’s keeping uncertainty high is the way oil prices keep moving. The price for a barrel of Brent crude oil to be delivered in August added 0.7% to settle at $100.21 after erasing an earlier decline.
Oil has been yo-yoing through the week on uncertainty about when the United States and Iran may find a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The closure has prevented oil tankers from exiting the Persian Gulf and delivering crude to customers worldwide.
Higher inflation worries have also pushed bond yields higher worldwide. a pressure that can slow economies and undercut prices for stocks and other investments. In the U.S., high yields have already forced the average long-term U.S. mortgage rate to its most expensive level since last summer. and they could further curtail companies’ borrowing to build the AI data centers that have supported recent U.S. growth.
Yields had been down Friday morning. offering some relief. before wavering again after oil prices erased their losses and the survey showed worse inflation expectations. The yield on the 10-year Treasury edged down to 4.56% from 4.57% late Thursday. but it remains well above its 3.97% level from before the war.
At the same time, traders on Wall Street have eliminated bets that the Federal Reserve will resume its cuts to interest rates later this year. Lower rates would normally give the economy a boost, but they could also worsen inflation.
Fed Gov. Christopher Waller spoke Friday and warned about inflation expectations. He said. “If I believe inflation expectations start to become unanchored. I would not hesitate to support an increase in the target range for the federal funds rate.” In the same speech titled “Policy Risks Have Changed. ” Waller said it is “time to simply sit and watch how the conflict and the data evolve. ” and he said that inflation expectations were not unanchored now.
Markets abroad climbed as well. Indexes rose across Europe and Asia. Japan’s Nikkei 225 climbed 2.7% to another record after a report showed inflation hitting a four-year low in April, at 1.4%, despite higher prices for oil and gas due to the war.
By the closing numbers on Wall Street, the S&P 500 rose 27.75 points to 7,473.47. The Dow added 294.04 to 50,579.70, and the Nasdaq added 50.87 to 26,343.97.
Wall Street S&P 500 Dow Nasdaq consumer sentiment University of Michigan survey inflation expectations Brent crude Strait of Hormuz Federal Reserve Christopher Waller 10-year Treasury yield
Stocks up, people down. Makes sense.
So inflation is getting worse but the Dow is winning? That’s backwards lol. My grocery bill hasn’t gotten the memo.
I saw something about oil and the Iran war like it’s the only reason prices are high. But also everybody says Wall Street fixes things?? Maybe Ross Stores is up because people are buying stuff with their stimulus or whatever, not tax refunds? Idk I didn’t finish the article.
Michigan survey says record low sentiment… yet the S&P keeps climbing like nothing happened. Seems like the market is ignoring consumers again. Also how is a merger rumor making Estee Lauder jump 11.9% while normal folks can’t afford gas? Feels like two different countries.