Goldman Sachs’ World Cup forecasts—updated after all 48 teams played their first match—put Spain, France and Argentina at the top to reach the final, while the model estimates the US’ chance of winning at about 1 in 100.
For weeks, fans have treated the World Cup like a kind of shared guesswork—psychic octopuses, loud pundit opinions, and betting markets that change by the hour. But a different kind of predictor has now moved closer to the field.
Goldman Sachs has been crunching the tournament’s odds since before kickoff, and on Thursday it updated its forecasts after all 48 teams played their first game. The numbers tighten the race for the most-viewed prize in sports, while still leaving plenty of room for heartbreak.
Spain, France and Argentina stand out in the model. Goldman’s analysts say each has a 31.5% to 31.7% chance of reaching the World Cup final. Fourth-ranked England is far behind at a 15% chance of getting there.
When the model shifts from reaching the final to lifting the trophy, Spain emerges as the favorite at 20.4%. France is close enough to feel dangerous at 20%. Argentina—who won the last World Cup—has an 18% chance, slightly penalized by the statistical underperformance of reigning champions.
The forecast also divides the tournament into winners and near-impossibilities. Goldman’s model suggests that 15 teams have literally no chance of winning the World Cup. Any champion outside the top set would be treated like a true surprise. England’s path is the next most likely after the favorites, with a 7.1% probability.
That probability is not static. Goldman’s model shows England’s chance of winning is up 1.6 percentage points since the tournament started—its biggest rise among teams—after England beat Croatia 4-2 on Wednesday evening in Texas.
Spain’s odds show how quickly momentum and match results can reshape the table. Spain’s chances of winning dipped by 0.2 percentage points after the reigning European champions were held to a goalless draw by Cape Verde. For France, the model lowered its winning chances by 0.3 percentage points after beating Senegal 3-1.
Portugal’s forecast moved more sharply after its opening match. Led by 41-year-old Cristiano Ronaldo, Portugal tied DR Congo 1-1, and Goldman says its chances dropped by 1 percentage point—the biggest fall among the teams after their first game.
For the US, Goldman’s estimate remains a long shot. The model puts the US at an 11th-highest chance of winning the trophy, at only 1.2%. Even so, the forecast notes that playing on home turf with exciting, attacking-minded tactics means nothing can be ruled out.
Goldman’s approach is designed to simulate more than just ranking prestige. The model predicts how many goals each team would score against a particular opponent. then simulates each team’s chances of progressing through every round. It leans heavily on historical performances. including the World Football Elo Ratings. and aims to account for variables that FIFA’s official rankings can miss—such as margin of victory and the importance of each match.
The analysts also incorporated each team’s goal-scoring talent, momentum and mentality, plus geography details like the country’s altitude and average temperature compared to where World Cup games are played.
After the first round of results, the biggest takeaway isn’t that one team is “destined” to win. It’s that the favorites look clustered, the gaps still matter, and the math is already reacting to shock outcomes—goalless draws, opening ties, and scoring bursts.
As the tournament moves deeper, Goldman’s forecasts will keep updating, turning each new match into another pressure test for the odds—and for the teams trying to prove them wrong.
Goldman Sachs World Cup forecasts Spain France Argentina England Cristiano Ronaldo US chance World Football Elo Ratings sports analytics tournament odds
So basically Goldman is saying the US has a 1% chance… cool cool. Might as well not even watch then.
I don’t get why people care about “models” like they’re psychic. If Spain and France are 20% to win, that means they’ll probably both lose right?? Also betting changes by the hour so this is whatever.
England up 1.6 points after beating Croatia 4-2 in Texas is the only part I believe. Like the game was in Texas so the odds got a little Texas boost 😂. I swear these numbers just react to headlines.
“15 teams have literally no chance”?? That’s hilarious. Sports aren’t math, people get injured all the time and then suddenly the model is wrong. Also if Argentina is 18% and won before, why are they getting “penalized” like it’s a fantasy league?