Republican Vivek Ramaswamy has lost his lead over Democrat Dr. Amy Acton in two prediction markets as Ohio’s closely fought governor’s race enters its final stretch.
At the time of writing, Polymarket put Acton’s chance of victory at 54 percent and Ramaswamy’s at 47 percent, while Kalshi showed Acton ahead with 55 percent to 45 percent.
Both markets had priced the contest as essentially even only days before August 24, when traders moved sharply toward Acton. This reversal raises the prospect of a genuine contest for an open governor’s office in a state President Donald Trump carried by 11.2 percentage points in 2024.
Key Points
- Acton has moved ahead on Polymarket, with the platform saying Ramaswamy is “no longer projected” to win.
- Kalshi also favored Acton at the time of writing, although both platforms’ prices can change rapidly.
- Polling remains much closer: The RealClearPolling average through August 10 gave Acton a 0.2-point advantage, 47 percent to 46.8 percent.
Newsweek contacted the Ramaswamy and Acton campaigns for comment via website contact form and email, respectively, on Friday morning.
Why It Matters
Ohio has moved firmly toward Republicans in presidential elections, but the contest to succeed term-limited GOP Governor Mike DeWine tests whether that realignment extends to a polarizing open-seat race.
Acton’s competitiveness also means both parties may need to devote money and organizational resources to a state Republicans might once have expected to defend comfortably.
What Prediction Markets Show
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to an election result, turning prices into implied probabilities that can absorb new information faster than conventional polling.
They can be useful as a live measure of informed sentiment, but thin trading, large transactions and rapidly changing prices mean they should not be treated as forecasts or polls.
Polymarket’s August 28 snapshot priced Acton at 54 percent and Ramaswamy at 47 percent on about $173,000 in volume. The market resolves according to the winner of the election, using calls from the Associated Press, Fox News and NBC or, if necessary, Ohio’s official certification.
Kalshi placed Acton at 55 percent and Ramaswamy at 45 percent, on almost $1.4 million traded.
What the Latest Polls Show
A Fox News poll conducted August 6 to 10 among 1,008 registered voters put Ramaswamy ahead, 50 percent to 48 percent. The survey, jointly directed by Democratic firm Beacon Research and Republican firm Shaw & Company Research, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, making the result statistically inconclusive.
Tulchin Research found Acton leading 46 percent to 44 percent in a survey sponsored by John Kulewicz, the Democratic candidate for Ohio attorney general. The survey, conducted July 29 to August 4 among 660 likely voters, had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
A New York Times/Siena College poll of 601 likely voters, conducted June 15 to 28, had the candidates tied at 47 percent. Its margin of error was plus or minus 4.7 percentage points.
An AARP survey conducted June 14 to 16 by Democratic firm Impact Research and Republican firm Fabrizio, Lee & Associates gave Acton a 47 percent to 44 percent lead among 800 likely voters. Its margin of error was plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Bowling Green State University and YouGov surveyed 1,000 registered voters from April 7 to 14 and found Ramaswamy ahead 48 percent to 47 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
Taken together, those surveys point to a race too close to call. They also mix registered-voter and likely-voter samples, making small differences between them less meaningful than the broader pattern of near parity.
What the Campaigns Say
Acton has sought to frame the campaign around affordability and Ramaswamy’s wealth. In an August 25 campaign release, she said Ohioans were “struggling right now with the cost of everyday living.” She added, “I’m fighting to make sure that everyone gets a fair shot in Ohio and has a chance for a good life.”
Her campaign manager, Philip Stein, previously told Newsweek that the close polling showed voters were “not falling for” attacks financed by Ramaswamy and his allies.
Ramaswamy has presented a sharply different choice, promising to be “the most conservative governor this state has ever seen” while campaigning on lower property taxes, a phased end to the state income tax and tighter controls on Medicaid spending.
Responding to criticism of a campaign advertisement about Acton’s pandemic record, Ramaswamy spokesperson Evan Machan told The Cincinnati Enquirer on Friday, “Families across Ohio were kept from dying loved ones because of Amy Acton’s COVID lockdown policies.”
What Happens Next
Polling and market prices may diverge again as voters react to advertising, debates and late campaign developments before the November 3 election.
For now, Ohio has not turned Democratic, but it appears Ramaswamy has yet to turn the state’s Republican lean into a durable personal advantage.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: John Fitzpatrick and Shakeema Edwards.