Jake Matthews and Carlston Harris meet in Macau with both men searching for answers after recent UFC losses—Matthews as the betting favorite at -325, Harris seeking an underdog rebound.
Jake Matthews walked into the UFC picture with momentum, then watched it drain away in his last fight—so now, heading into UFC Macau, he’s trying to stop the skid before it becomes a trend.
Matthews takes on Carlston Harris in a Welterweight (170) matchup from Macau. with the Australian UFC veteran entering as the betting favorite at -325 against Harris at +260. The fight also comes with a specific storyline in the betting lines: over 2.5 rounds is priced at +120. while the under 2.5 rounds sits at -154.
Matthews (22-8) arrives with a 15-8 UFC record since 2014 and is coming off a finishing loss to Neil Magny, who won by SUB (d’arce choke, R3). Prior to that, Matthews had won three straight fights—against Phil Rowe, Francisco Prado, and Chidi Njokuani—before Magny interrupted his climb.
Inside the physical matchup, Matthews measures 5-foot-11 with a 73-inch reach.
Harris (19-7) is also coming off a UFC defeat. He’s 4-3 inside the promotion since 2021. and his most recent outing ended in a TKO loss to Santiago Ponzinibbio in January 2025. Harris’ path to this fight hasn’t been smooth either: he had visa issues that forced him to withdraw from a bout against Michael Chiese. but now he returns after what the preparation time represents—significant rest—coming in as the underdog.
Harris stands six feet tall with a 76-inch reach, and the shape of his game is reflected in that frame: long limbs, long legs, and the ability to use reach to keep opponents at bay.
The turning point for Matthews is whether he can impose his grappling the way he wants to. Before the setback to Magny. Matthews’ recent run included notching back-to-back unanimous decisions and submitting Chidi Njokuani. part of a broader finishing profile that includes 5 KO/TKO and 9 SUB finishes. In the matchup with Harris. the expectation is that Matthews will look to win exchanges where he’s strongest—especially on the ground.
Still, Matthews has to solve his own history. With willingness to grapple comes a vulnerability: he has been submitted four times in the past, and the fear for any control-heavy fighter is getting caught by the one mistake that gives a long-limbed grappler a doorway.
Harris. for his part. is framed as a stylistic challenge—particularly because of what he can do when he keeps the fight standing. His defensive base for takedowns is built around 55% takedown defense. and the matchup plan is clear: rely on that defense while using his reach and movement to discourage Matthews from setting up takedowns comfortably.
The recent losses also carry another layer—more mental than technical. Harris recently saw back-to-back losses for the first time in his professional career. both ending via knockout at the hands of the striking. While the visa issues that forced him to pull out of the fight against Michael Chiese are part of that disruption. the underdog belief here is that extra recovery time can help Harris train and recuperate from the previous knockouts and come back sharper.
Both men are arriving from defeats, which matters for how they might approach early moments—whether they trade, clinch, or immediately chase the outcome they need.
Matthews enters the fight with the betting edge and a forecast tied to ground control: a prediction that he won’t get caught clean by a Harris punch before he dominates on the ground. with expectations of a finish in the second half of the fight. The pick being offered comes with a specific lean—Jake Matthews (-325) paired with UNDER 2.5 Rounds (-154).
Harris’ best path is also spelled out through his frame and his defensive numbers. If he maintains striking distance. remains stern with takedown defense. and forces the clinch—then wears on Matthews with knees to the body—he has a route to swing the fight without surrendering the kind of ground position Matthews usually hunts.
There’s a lot at stake in how quickly the fight resolves, because the undercard math is already pointing toward a shorter night: under 2.5 rounds is the more heavily favored line at -154.
As UFC Macau builds toward its main card action, Matthews vs. Harris isn’t just a matchup of styles—it’s a test of who rebounds more cleanly from the bruising reality of their last outings.
UFC Macau Jake Matthews Carlston Harris Welterweight 170 Neil Magny Santiago Ponzinibbio Phil Rowe Francisco Prado Chidi Njokuani betting odds
So Matthews is -325 like 3 to 1 right? If he loses I’m gonna be mad lol.
Wait Harris had visa issues and still fighting in Macau?? That seems like a huge red flag or maybe it doesn’t matter. Also -154 for under 2.5 rounds feels like a trap.
The article says Matthews is favored but he lost last time to Magny by an ‘d’arce choke’… is that like a shoulder crank? Either way betting lines don’t mean anything, look at UFC all the upsets.
Macau UFC again?? I thought that’s where they do like tourist stuff not actual fights. Anyway Matthews needs answers after setbacks but Harris had visa problems so like which one is more “ready,” the underdog who couldn’t even travel before or the guy who got choked out? Over 2.5 rounds at +120 sounds like they want chaos.