U.S. Open tennis picks: Paul vs. Bublik, Tiafoe vs. Vacherot

Multiple Americans are in action on home turf at the U.S. Open on Friday, when third-action gets underway. No. 20 seed Tommy Paul takes on Alexander Bublik and No. 11 seed Frances Tiafoe battles Valentin Vacherot.
(15) Alexander Bublik vs. (20) Tommy Paul
These two have already given us a preview of what to expect. Last year’s U.S. Open third round between them went the distance, a wild five-setter that swung on every tiebreaker imaginable before Alexander Bublik snuck away with it. Tommy Paul has had the better 2026 campaign on paper (four finals and a title in Houston), but he is just 1-3 in those finals and he bombed out early at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon.
Bublik is Bublik…which means anything can happen. He can hand you a set for free out of sheer boredom but then flip a switch and blitz through the next one before you’ve settled back into your seat. A couple of their past meetings have needed a decider, including that epic in New York last year — so if you’re expecting a short day, you’re watching the wrong match. Although I think Paul finally gets his revenge, it’s probably going to be the hard way. I’m giving the nod to Paul, but bring snacks.
Cheryl pick: Paul in 5
Ricky pick: Paul in 5
(11) Frances Tiafoe vs. (22) Valentin Vacherot
Tiafoe walks into this one having already survived a five-setter. He said after beating Damm that he has won plenty of matches this year he probably shouldn’t have, and that kind of stubbornness is exactly what carried him to the Cincinnati final a couple weeks ago. Tiafoe is playing loose, he is playing with confidence, and he has 37 tour-level wins already this season — more than any other American man.
Vacherot is a good story but a shaky opponent right now. He missed the French Open and skipped Wimbledon entirely with a foot injury, and then dropped four straight matches before arriving in New York. His second serve and break-point conversions were both weak spots in his round-two win over Kamil Majchrzak, and Tiafoe’s return game is going to find those cracks. They have never played, so there’s no history to report — but the momentum gap is real. I don’t expect this to be a clean straight-setter. Vacherot could steal a set, but Tiafoe should have too much game and too much crowd behind him. Look for the fan favorite to close this out at home.
Cheryl pick: Tiafoe in 4
Ricky pick: Tiafoe in 4