Voters from five different states will head to the polls tomorrow to choose who they believe will best represent them. From a fight between moderate Democrats and the party’s socialist-leaning faction in Michigan to a jungle primary in Washington state that could see two Republicans on the ballot for Congress in November, Tuesday’s elections feature big money and bigger consequences.
Of those states, Michigan represents not just partisan primaries, but an ideological fight for the direction of the Democratic Party.
Officials from both parties are closely watching the Michigan senatorial primary between Rep. Haley Stevens, D-Mich., and progressive Abdul El-Sayed, the former Wayne County Health Department director.
Download the Straight Arrow app today to get the stories that matter free from manipulation, bias or agenda.
Point phone camera here
Bigger implications than a Senate seat
The race represents another instance of a progressive Democrat taking on another, more moderate Democrat in a state’s primary election. Both parties are eyeing the race for different reasons. Republicans are hoping more progressive candidates win, since they believe that will scare off independents and more moderate Democrats in a more politically competitive race than areas where progressives had won before.
Democrats are looking at the same issues but with different reasons. Progressive Democrats are watching to see whether wins in past elections, like New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s, can be replicated elsewhere, not just in the big city. More moderate establishment Democrats are watching that too, but believe that coalescing behind more moderate candidates can help them win over independents and even some Republicans who oppose recent policies by the Trump administration.
Who is on the ballot?
Stevens has worked in politics since she graduated from American University in 2005. After her graduation, she worked as a field organizer for the Michigan Democratic Party before transitioning to President Barack Obama’s presidential campaign after he won the primary.
In 2009, Stevens was hired to join the Presidential Task Force on the Auto Industry, which was tasked with helping the automotive industry after the 2008 financial crisis. Stevens worked in the auto industry until 2017, when she returned to Michigan.
In 2018, Stevens ran for Congress, defeating Lena Epstein in the general election to flip a seat to the Democrats. Stevens has won three more elections, including in 2022 when her district was redrawn after Michigan lost a seat due to population decline.
El-Sayed doesn’t have the same level of experience in national politics. Before his 2026 senatorial campaign, El-Sayed ran in the 2018 Michigan gubernatorial primary. He lost to Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, only obtaining about 30% of the vote, according to The New York Times.
Before his unsuccessful gubernatorial bid in 2018, El-Sayed had worked in several health-related fields. In 2014, he was hired as an assistant professor at Columbia University’s epidemiology department. A year later, former Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan appointed El-Sayed to Health Officer and Executive Director of the Detroit Health Department.
Then in late 2022, El-Sayed was named director of Wayne County’s Department of Health, Human, and Veterans Services. He worked in this role until April 2025, when he resigned to begin campaigning for Senate.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers, R-Mich., is the only candidate on the Republican ballot. Rogers previously represented Michigan’s 8th district from 2001 until 2015, after he announced he would not run for another term in 2014.
What do the politicians support?
Stevens and El-Sayed have focused on different topics during the campaign. El-Sayed has campaigned on Medicare for All and other progressive policies.
El-Sayed has also enjoyed support from prominent progressives including Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Ver., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y.
Stevens has aligned herself with the Democratic Party’s more establishment wing, focusing on fixing the economy with a more pragmatic approach to governing.
A major divide between Stevens and El-Sayed is their opinions on Israel. El-Sayed has made it clear where he stands on Israel’s war in Gaza, calling both the Israeli government and Hamas “pretty damn evil” when asked by a reporter.
“It’s not how evil is this one versus that one: Hamas evil, Israeli government evil,” he said. “You can say both.”
But Stevens’ campaign has faced criticism over donations it has received from the American Israel Public Affairs Committee, or AIPAC. According to Politico, AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project, has donated nearly $11 million into Stevens’ campaign. It has also placed $20 million in advertisement reservations.
This has been a major contention since Michigan has the highest concentration of Arab Americans in the country and a significant Jewish population.
Stevens has tried to distance herself from the controversy. During a primary debate, Stevens said that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has made Jewish people in the U.S. less safe because of his war in Gaza.
“The goal has to be long-term peace,” Stevens said. “It is very clear that Mr. Netanyahu has not made us safer, has not brought us closer to peace, and he’s endangered Jews here in America and around the world.”
What do the polls say?
Stevens started with a sizable lead, with El-Sayed a close second and state Sen. Mallory McMorrow in third. But El-Sayed quickly caught up with Stevens over the last few weeks after McMorrow exited the race in early July, Axios reported.
The latest polls now indicate that El-Sayed has a substantial lead over Stevens. An Emerson College poll published on July 30 shows El-Sayed with a 15-percentage-point lead over Stevens among voters. About 6% of voters are still undecided.
Things change once Rogers comes into play. A poll by Mitchell Research & Communications found that in a hypothetical race against Rogers and Stevens, Rogers leads by 3%. In a hypothetical with El-Sayed, both he and Rogers are tied. The poll had a margin of error of ±3.77%, so each hypothetical race is well within that margin.
Other races to watch
While the Michigan race is the most talked-about race this week, four other states are also holding primary elections.
Missouri
In Missouri, Rep. Wesley Bell is facing a rematch against former Rep. Cori Bush. Bell previously beat Bush for the seat in 2024. The race also has dynamics similar to those in Michigan.
Bell, who is seen as the more moderate of the candidates, is facing off against Bush, a progressive, self-identified Democratic Socialist. Much like the division between Stevens and El-Sayed, Israel is a big difference between the two politicians. Bell has continued to support more military aid to Israel, while Bush said she’s committed to ending assistance. Her opposition to Israel was one of the reasons Bell outperformed her in the 2024 race that ousted her, according to USA Today.
Bell remains a supporter of Israel and has continued his support of the country as the war in Gaza continued. AIPAC has spent about $1.2 million against Bush through its super PAC, the outlet reported.
Polling hasn’t been as prominent in this race compared to others, like the matchup between Stevens and El-Sayed. The only poll for the rematch was conducted by HIT Strategies in February for Bush’s campaign. It showed Bell ahead by 4%, which was within the poll’s 5.4% margin of error.
Washington
Another race that could prove to be a political bellwether takes place in one of the most conservative districts in Washington state. This one is interesting because of how Washington conducts its primaries.
The state uses a top-two primary, meaning all candidates from every party appear on a single ballot, and the top two finishers advance to the general election regardless of party.
The election opened up after Rep. Dan Newhouse, R-Wash., announced he would retire at the end of his term. The race features at least 11 candidates, including six Republicans, one Democrat and two independents. Trump has endorsed Republican Yakima County Commissioner Amanda McKinney.
But because of the top-two primary system, political experts say this could lead to interesting results. Todd Schaefer, a professor and chair of political science at Central Washington University, told Oregon Public Broadcasting that, despite the district being strongly Republican, the number of Republican candidates could split the vote, helping the lone Democrat.
“ Even though it’s a heavily Republican area, it’s highly likely the Republican vote will be split so much that the Democrat will (also) advance,” he told the outlet.
Schaefer said in the last two elections, the top-two primary system helped Newhouse, since those who strongly supported Trump tried to unseat Newhouse after he voted to impeach Trump in 2021.
“The vote was split so much among the Trump faction that Newhouse came in second, and the Democrat came in first,” Schaefer said. “Then, Newhouse won easily in the general (election) because the Trump voters, most of them came home.”