Governments across the world have begun questioning how much can they lean on Washington for protection after President Donald Trump suddenly cut back joint military drills, named Ulchi Freedom Shield with South Korea this week.
Trump explained that his decision was linked to his good relationship with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, while also pointing to South Korea’s refusal to join the U.S. effort against Iran.
The move raised concerns in Seoul and renewed questions about the future of the decades-old U.S.-South Korea security alliance.
“Expect a refocus on self-reliance,” one diplomat told POLITICO, “U.S. defense tech is still the best…But I reckon there’ll be more investment by those that can in self-defense to reduce reliance on the U.S. umbrella in the long term.”
Seoul left in the dark
Trump had shared his decision on social media hours before the drills opened on August 17, arguing that the exercises cost too much and provoked North Korea unnecessarily.
South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Hyun told the National Assembly that his government received no advance word about Trump’s decision. President Lee Jae Myung, who gifted Trump a gold crown during an October visit, is now holding joint meetings with American officials to try to smooth things over, Cho said.
Trump said Kim had remained “very respectful” toward his administration, later adding that he expected to meet with Kim again later this year, signalling that renewed diplomacy with North Korea could be on the horizon.
Seoul spreads its bets
Jung Pak, who previously handled North Korea matters for the U.S. government, said the South Korean leader has opened conversations with nations in Africa, the Gulf region and Japan to build new lines of support.
At the same time, Cho said Lee’s administration is still pursuing direct talks with American officials to patch up the relationship.
Another source told the POLITICO, “U.S. commitments look more contingent, transactional and vulnerable to being overtaken by events elsewhere and that raises doubts about whether the U.S. can sustain its stated Indo-Pacific priority in a multi-theater crisis.”
Not an isolated incident
Regional officials pointed to a string of earlier moves that fit the same mold. Back in May, Trump held up a fourteen billion dollar weapons sale to Taiwan, treating it as leverage in his dealings with Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
Just months before that, in December, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth had praised South Korea as a standout partner deserving special treatment, which made this week’s incident land even harder.
One diplomat summed it up by saying the issue is no longer whether America wants to stay engaged, but whether it has the resources left to back that engagement up.
Beijing watches closely
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi arrived in Seoul this week for a two-day visit, timing that former officials say hands Beijing a convenient chance to drive a wedge between Washington and two of its closest allies.
Nicholas Burns, who served as U.S. ambassador to China, said Chinese leadership has long hunted for exactly this kind of moment to separate South Korea and Japan from the United States and Trump’s remarks about Seoul might have given Wang Yi the perfect entry point.