Trump’s Inflation Bet Meets a Beef Wall Next

Trump faces – High beef prices are squeezing shoppers and shuttering barbecue restaurants, while U.S. officials face a blunt reality: the main drivers are a historically small cattle herd and rising disease and climate risks. President Donald Trump’s limited near-term optio

By the time Megan Brown finished an auction sale, she wasn’t thinking about politics at all. She was thinking about the bull she’d sold for more than she’d paid six years earlier—an outcome she said “boggles my mind” because, in her words, it wasn’t a story her ranch even had in its history.

Brown is a sixth-generation cattle rancher north of Sacramento. and the surprise profit comes from a deep trough her industry endured before the pandemic. For years, tight margins pushed her and other ranchers to shrink herds. Now those years of production cuts are meeting today’s hunger for beef—so strong that even a typical ribeye steak at the grocery store now often costs more than $20 per pound.

The market that rewards Brown is the same one that makes voters wince. Retail beef prices are hovering near record highs. Last month. consumers paid on average a little over $7 per pound for ground beef—up 13% from a year earlier and 50% from five years earlier—numbers the article ties to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. And high prices are not confined to supermarket aisles. Some beloved Texas barbecue joints have shut down due to the skyrocketing cost of brisket.

For President Donald Trump. that creates a straight line to a political problem Republicans can’t ignore: Congress and midterm expectations depend on convincing voters inflation is under control. But Trump has been caught talking about inflation in a way that doesn’t match what shoppers are feeling. “I love the inflation. ” he told the press this week when asked about the latest data showing it spiked last month. He added that “Cows are produced one at a time. They don’t have litters. It’s a slow biological process. It’s going to take several more years before we can change this [situation] appreciably.”.

In other words, the president is signaling patience just as the public is signaling pain.

Agricultural economists have little reason to believe a fast policy fix is available. One factor feeding beef prices is tied to the administration’s invasion of Iran with Israel. which has pushed up diesel and fertilizer prices and. in turn. is putting upward pressure on beef and other staples. But the deeper problem is structural. As David Anderson. an economist who specializes in livestock at Texas A&M University. put it: “The main thing is we’re producing less beef.”.

Anderson linked that shortfall to drought conditions across much of the country. then to the years-long cycle that followed low cattle prices and rising costs. “We went through a number of years of very low cattle prices and rising costs. so ranchers reduced their herds because they were losing money and they had to cut production. Where we are today is really the culmination of those factors.”.

The article lays out the scale of that production squeeze. There are fewer cattle in the U.S. than there have been in 75 years. The domestic herd stands at 86.2 million head as of Jan. 1.

That’s not the only threat now moving through the system. Ranchers also have to contend with the invasive parasite known as the New World screwworm. The screwworm feeds on mammals and can devastate livestock. The piece notes it was eradicated from the U.S. decades ago, but has recently been migrating north from Central America. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has confirmed at least four recent cases in Texas. and the cattle industry is alarmed that it will spread.

Derrell Peel, an agricultural economist at Oklahoma State University, describes why that matters beyond the immediate headlines. Even with clarity, cattle herds cannot be rebuilt overnight. Peel said ranchers must first see an incentive in retaining heifers for breeding rather than sending them off to a feedlot and to slaughter. “Cows are produced one at a time. They don’t have litters. It’s a slow biological process,” Peel said. “It’s going to take several more years before we can change this [situation] appreciably.”.

There’s a cruel timing to it all. Brown. for example. is watching uncertainty—severe weather and parasites on one side—while also counting on the promise of strong prices this year. That combination encourages some sellers to move heifers now. But Brown has chosen the opposite approach. This spring, she didn’t sell a single heifer. In her view. prices aren’t just high; they’re likely to remain high. with elevated risks for competitors—“screwworm and wildfires and slaughterhouses shutting down. ” as she said.

She put it plainly: “To me, the cattle numbers are going to become lower, with more demand [for beef].”

For consumers, especially those not insulated by direct-to-consumer options, the market is already testing limits.

Brown sells a direct-to-consumer side of her business, offering high-quality quarter, half and whole cows to mostly high-income customers. She said she doesn’t even bother to keep a wait list anymore; she’s sold out for at least the next two years. People of more modest means might balk at prime rib prices. but the article says per capita consumption of ground beef is now at its highest level in more than two decades. citing Peel. It also points to shifting health perceptions as a possible factor. with the share of consumers who say they are trying to avoid meat for health reasons having fallen.

At the same time, other parts of the food economy are running into budget walls. Pitmasters and restaurateurs are finding diners do have a limit.

Shawn Jones, who runs Kirby’s BBQ north of Houston, shut down this past winter. He tied the decision “in large part” to the rising cost of beef. Jones said he became convinced he could no longer serve barbecue at a price customers could handle. He told the story of the market’s future through pain that sounded personal: he echoed Brown’s outlook about what’s coming. including “screwworm and wildfires and slaughterhouses shutting down.”.

For Jones, the economics were immediate. He said he was paying around $100 for a 20-pound. untrimmed full packer brisket. which ultimately yields around nine pounds of sellable product after smoking. He said he had to charge $36 a pound to turn a profit after labor, utilities, rent and other expenses. That pricing implies a family of four might spend more than $70 on the brisket alone, before ribs, sausages and sides.

Jones described the squeeze with no flourish. “It’s hard to justify for most middle-income families in this economy, on top of gas prices. People just don’t have that wiggle room,” he said. “They wanna support us and eat the food, they’re just having a hard time fitting it into their budget.”

Even after closing, Jones said he felt “validated” by the choice, because brisket prices have climbed higher since December. Some other acclaimed pitmasters, the article notes, have followed suit.

That leaves the administration searching for something it can point to—particularly as Democrats push an “affordability” agenda highlighting the rising cost of living ahead of the midterm elections.

In February. the White House announced it would allow Argentina to import more lean beef trimmings tariff-free in order to increase the U.S. ground beef supply. But the plan didn’t last. The article says the White House backed off after pushback from a cattle industry it counts as a political ally. Vincent Smith. an economist and fellow at the center-right American Enterprise Institute. criticized what the policy would have changed for consumers. He said allowing more competition than ranchers were comfortable with—“and lowering the price of their cattle”—was “not something they get excited about.”.

Smith also said analysis by him and a colleague found the policy would have “de minimus” impact on prices anyway. increasing the U.S. beef supply by only 0.5%. He argued it wouldn’t alter the underlying issue of a historically small domestic herd facing drought and possibly screwworm—problems that help explain why prices stay high and why ranchers are encouraged to sell now.

So even the moves Trump’s team can make quickly are limited by the realities ranchers have already named and the math Smith supplied.

Brown’s stance this spring—refusing to sell—reflects that same view. She doesn’t see beef prices coming down much in the medium-to-long term. Instead, she predicts “good years ahead for ranchers who are prepared,” and a new normal for grocery store shoppers. She said the price of a pound of ground beef could soon surpass the federal minimum wage.

“For a long time, we were getting really similar prices to what we were getting 20 years [earlier],” Brown said. “Maybe now we went too far in the other direction, but I don’t know if we’ll ever go back.”

The political risk is that voters aren’t waiting for herds to rebuild or parasites to stay contained. They’re shopping now. And right now. the beef market is offering a rare sight: a producer’s dream and a consumer’s bill that keeps climbing—leaving President Donald Trump and Republicans with fewer tools than the headlines require.

Donald Trump inflation beef prices ground beef Bureau of Labor Statistics cattle herd drought New World screwworm U.S. Department of Agriculture Texas Kirby's BBQ Argentina beef trimmings tariff-free American Enterprise Institute midterm elections affordability agenda