Trump’s defeat may be ‘only a matter of time,’ says foreign policy expert
Trita Parsi believes Donald Trump’s war against Iran may be heading toward defeat.
Parsi is a highly respected Middle East foreign policy analyst and co-founder of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft.
He is also a leading expert on U.S.-Iran relations, an award-winning author and a former adviser to senior officials involved in the historic 2015 Iran nuclear deal negotiations.
Foreign policy expert weighs in on Donald Trump’s war with Iran
Parsi’s deduction was based on signs of low morale among U.S. service members as the U.S.-Iran conflict continued without clear public support.
He first posted a photograph on X, claiming it was shared by a U.S. service member.
It featured an aircraft flap and soldiers had written messages in the dust, offering a glimpse into how they viewed the war.
On his Substack, Parsi described the photograph as an “anecdotal piece of evidence” but said it felt significant because the messages shared a common theme.
“The common theme running through the scribbles is a belief that the war does not serve U.S. interests, coupled with the assertion that it was started on behalf of Israel,” he wrote.
He stated that he could not compare the remarks with the views of U.S. soldiers in previous conflicts. However, conversations with “men and women in uniform” led him to believe that similar sentiments represented a sizable portion of active-duty service members deployed to the Middle East.
One member told Parsi that “this operation has no morale behind it.” Parsi connected that apparent lack of morale to the broader question of whether the war serves America’s national interests.
He ultimately reached the conclusion: “And when their morale collapses, defeat is only a matter of time.” Parsi essentially argued that war without morale leaves no meaningful path to victory.
He wrote, “There is no other form of ‘winning’ in such an unjust war.”
Trump’s Iran war leaves U.S. forces and influence under strain
The New Yorker’s recent report focused on the widening cost of Trump’s Iran war, such as the conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln and the conflict’s broader strategic consequences.
According to the outlet, the carrier’s deployment has lasted months longer than planned. Reports have described dwindling food and potable water supplies, fraying morale and at least two alleged attempts by sailors to go overboard.
The war has reportedly failed to achieve Trump’s initial objectives because Iran’s nuclear program and ballistic-missile capabilities remain unresolved.
Moreover, Iran has used the Strait of Hormuz as leverage against the United States, putting strain on the entire global economy. Experts quoted by the publication have described the war as a setback for Washington.
“Iran has come out of the war far stronger,” Vali Nasr, an Iranian-American academic and former dean of the Paul H. Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, noted, while adding that “it’s very clear that it’s half empty for the Americans.”
On the other hand, Ellie Geranmayeh, a senior policy fellow and deputy head of the Middle East and North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, called the conflict “an unwinnable war for America.”