consumer confidence – Misryoum reports that multiple consumer sentiment measures under Trump’s second term show weaker confidence than the end of Biden’s tenure.
President Trump says consumer confidence is soaring, but several long-running benchmarks tracked by Misryoum point in the other direction.
Speaking at a White House small business summit on May 4. Trump argued that “consumer confidence” is “way up. ” framing his agenda as resonating with everyday Americans.. Yet three commonly cited yardsticks of consumer sentiment and public views of the economy show that people are. at minimum. less upbeat than they were at the end of President Joe Biden’s term. and in at least one case near the weakest readings seen over the survey’s history. according to Misryoum.
That mismatch matters because consumer sentiment is one of the signals policymakers and markets watch for whether households are likely to spend through uncertainty.. When political claims and survey trends diverge. it can shape how voters interpret the economy ahead of elections and how aggressively leaders choose to make the case for their policies.
Misryoum notes that the University of Michigan’s monthly consumer sentiment survey has asked Americans about their economic outlook for decades.. On its main index question, the latest reading Misryoum reviewed for March 2026 lands close to the survey’s lowest levels.. Among the weakest months in the series. multiple occurred during Trump’s second term. while others coincided with periods of high inflation earlier in recent history.
A second measure tracked by Misryoum comes from The Conference Board. which also uses an index of consumer confidence developed from its own surveys.. In Biden’s final full month in office. Misryoum reports the rating sat higher than it did in the comparable period reviewed under Trump.. Over longer spans that compare the two administrations’ time windows. the Conference Board measure remains weaker during Trump’s second term than during the closing stretch of Biden’s presidency.
In this context, the key point is not which poll is perfect, but that multiple survey-based approaches converge on the same theme: sentiment has not been strengthening in line with the White House’s message.
Misryoum also examined an additional layer of political reality: public approval of the Trump administration’s economic handling.. Using an approach that summarizes how respondents weigh approval against disapproval across a set of polling. the net result for Trump’s economy ratings moved into negative territory early in the second term and has continued to trend lower. with disapproval outpacing approval in early May. Misryoum reports.
White House spokespeople. as Misryoum describes. pointed to “hard data” such as retail spending and retail sales to support the argument that consumers remain resilient.. Misryoum notes that retail sales can sometimes look stronger even when confidence is weak. because the numbers can be influenced by price changes. including from factors outside households’ expectations.. In that sense, stronger retail sales do not automatically prove consumers feel more secure.
Meanwhile. some spending indicators reviewed by Misryoum that adjust for inflation show a different pattern than retail sales alone. with household spending tending to be stronger during the final stretch of Biden’s presidency than it was during the early part of Trump’s second term window examined by Misryoum.. Retail sales. however. were generally higher during Trump’s tenure in Misryoum’s comparison. raising the possibility that at least part of the lift reflects the way higher prices can raise the dollar value of purchases.
Ultimately, the dispute is about what “confidence” means and how it is measured.. Misryoum’s review suggests the White House is emphasizing one set of spending indicators while survey-based sentiment and approval signals are moving in a less optimistic direction. a dynamic that can influence both public perception and the political narrative around the economy.