Trump’s immigration – A Guardian analysis finds that many of the countries the Trump administration has restricted are among the most vulnerable to climate-driven disasters—meaning people most likely to be displaced are also most likely to be barred from the U.S.
When a storm destroyed her home, Evelyn believed the escape would be simple: her relatives in New York City pleaded for her and her sister to come. What she didn’t know then was that years later, the U.S. door would tighten—just as the world’s climate shocks were forcing more families to flee.
Evelyn was a teenager when Hurricane Mitch struck Honduras in 1998, killing 7,000 people. She still remembers the scale of the wreckage and the sickness that followed. “There were bodies and dead animals floating in the water. the house was messed up. the furniture was all gone—doors. windows gone. It was so, so sad,” she said. “I got sick because of the mosquitoes too. My uncle and aunt were just like: ‘OK, just bring the kids over here, don’t stay. It’s dangerous.’”.
Her experience sits inside a larger pattern the Guardian analysis describes: Donald Trump’s immigration crackdown is largely targeting people from countries most vulnerable to displacement from storms, floods, and droughts worsened by the climate crisis.
The analysis points to 39 countries from which the Trump administration has fully or partly restricted entry to the U.S. Of those. 22 are ranked within the most vulnerable quarter of nations globally to climate impacts. based on data from the Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative. That index assesses how prone jurisdictions are to the climate crisis.
Danielle Wood. an associate professor at Notre Dame. said. “Nearly all of the most vulnerable countries are on a ban or visa pause.” The article identifies the result in stark terms: immigrants from Chad and Niger—ranked as the two most climate-vulnerable countries in the world—are now fully barred from the U.S. It also lists people from Sudan. Somalia. and Sierra Leone as barred. noting they are among the 10 countries most exposed to climate impacts.
Honduras, meanwhile, sits within the most vulnerable half of countries. The country has seen stronger rainstorms. droughts. floods. and coastal erosion in recent years—conditions that have pushed families toward emigration. “People are being displaced by climate change. the number is growing every year and. increasingly. the displacements are permanent. ” Evelyn said.
The policy shift has tangible consequences, she added. She still lives in New York and has two daughters studying at university. “Every day it’s more barriers,” Evelyn said. “It’s sad to know that people will not be able to apply for a status or something to help their situation and also help the people back home.”.
The Trump administration has also sought to terminate temporary protected status (TPS) for people from Honduras and 12 other countries who already reside in the U.S. The article says nearly half of these countries are among those ranked by Notre Dame as among the most climate-vulnerable places in the world.
The Supreme Court is now considering an appeal to TPS revocation for people from two affected countries—Syria and Haiti. The article ties both to environmental pressures: it says Syria has suffered recent droughts. while Haiti has suffered hurricanes as well as violent unrest. It also notes that environmental perils in these and other countries have been cited by the federal government when TPS was granted to allow people to remain in the U.S.
Trump has argued that the sweeping bans are about security. In the article. the administration says the broad restrictions will “keep the radical Islamic terrorists out of our country” and resolve deficiencies in vetting people. It also reports that the State Department was contacted for comment about climate-related immigration.
For advocates. the contrast between what the climate is doing and what the immigration system allows is where the moral pressure lands. The article cites the United Nations’ estimate that severe heatwaves. droughts. storms. and floods have uprooted 250 million people globally over the past decade—equivalent to 70. 000 displacements every day.
It remains unclear how many people flee across borders; the article emphasizes that most migration happens internally. It notes that in 2025. nearly 30 million people were forced by disasters to move within their countries. with wildfires described as the largest cause. citing examples such as wildfires that incinerated parts of Los Angeles last year.
Experts in the piece say there is a growing group often called “climate refugees. ” yet the law still does not offer a direct doorway. The article says there are currently no official pathways for people fleeing environmental disasters, because neither U.S. law nor the UN’s 1951 refugee convention recognizes environmental disasters as a reason to gain protection in another country.
Jocelyn Perry. program manager of the climate displacement program at Refugees International. said. “People are being displaced by climate change. the number is growing every year and. increasingly. the displacements are permanent.” She added that residents of developing countries blacklisted by the U.S. struggle to deal with the loss of crops, sea level rise, and other upheavals worsened by global heating.
Perry put it in terms of unequal survivability. “A house in Florida may be able to withstand a category four hurricane, but there are people around the world unable to deal with that in any way and they are bearing the brunt of this,” she said.
Advocates say that displacement often triggers a separate chain of harm—violence or persecution—that can then become the asylum claim. “Climate change is not necessarily the first issue that displaced people raise,” Perry said. “But if. say. a family’s crops fail for three years and they have to move to an urban area and they can’t find work or it’s dangerous there. climate change has played a key role in their movement—even if their asylum claim is because of the violence that follows.”.
The article also describes the broader climate backdrop. It says the U.S. is the world’s largest emitter of planet-heating pollution in history. It adds that Trump has dismissed any need to act on the climate crisis. calling it a “hoax” and “bullshit. ” and demanding the world remain wedded to fossil fuels.
Perry also tied immigration enforcement to other policy moves. The article says the Trump administration has effectively shut down the U.S. refugee program, aside from white South Africans, and dismantled overseas aid that can reduce the spread of disease. It further alleges that cuts to USAID—engineered by Elon Musk. according to the article—are forecast to result in the deaths of about 4.5 million young children over the next five years in places such as sub-Saharan Africa.
“All of these actions will increase displacement. and the Trump administration will try to dissuade people from coming to the US border through cruel and inhumane policies. third-country deportation. and child detention. ” Perry said. She added. “I don’t know if that will deter people if the other option is risking death or injury at home. though. so people will still make that journey.”.
The article returns to TPS as the one part of the immigration apparatus that does factor in the climate crisis. Under TPS, foreign nationals already in the U.S. are granted renewable one- or two-year stays if war or natural disaster hits their homeland.
The piece says Syrians received TPS in 2024 based. among other things. on falling wheat production and “drought-like conditions” in recent years. It also says Ethiopia’s TPS status from the same year concluded that the country was hit by severe drought and flooding. displacing more than 4 million people. For Haiti, the article says about 350,000 Haitians in the U.S. would risk returning to one of the countries “most affected by extreme weather events. ” according to a 2023 determination granting a TPS extension.
The Trump administration has terminated TPS status for a swathe of countries. the article reports. and courts are set to decide on the status of several of these—including the Supreme Court case involving Syria and Haiti. Geoffrey Pipoly. a lawyer representing six plaintiffs from Haiti. said. “There are tens of thousands of people who have fled because of natural disasters.” He added. “Haiti has been smack dab in the middle of this for decades.”.
Even for those still covered, uncertainty can be exhausting. The article includes a doctor originally from Sudan who did not want to be named. It says he left for the U.S. after drought accelerated conflict in his country, which has been locked in a civil war for the past three years. The doctor said. “If the tide was to turn. it might be more for adaptation funding to help people stay where they are. rather than a new visa.” He also described the conditions back home: “It’s too dry. there’s not enough water. the lands were just left without anyone to cultivate them and millions have fled.”.
Sudan is still on the TPS list but only until October, according to the article. The doctor said it would be very difficult to return. “It would be very, very tough, very difficult to go back,” he said. He added that he has still not heard whether an application made for a work permit has been successful. and he reflected on what the TPS promise feels like to people living in limbo: “One of the reasons people come to the US is because they think there is a law. everybody is treated equally. But I think this is no longer the case.”.
The expected Supreme Court ruling is slated for late June or early July, the article says.
For lawmakers, the problem goes beyond TPS. The article describes efforts to update the U.S. immigration system to include consideration of the climate crisis as having floundered so far. It points to the 1952 Immigration and Nationality Act definition of a “refugee” as someone unable to return due to a well-founded fear of persecution based on race. religion. nationality. membership in a particular social group. or political viewpoint—an approach that does not include protections for those displaced by environmental degradation.
In 2021 and 2023. Democratic lawmakers aimed to codify that change with the Climate Displaced Persons Act. which would amend the INA to provide durable legal status and resettlement support to people forced to relocate to the U.S. due to climate disasters. Massachusetts senator Ed Markey introduced the proposal both times, according to the article. “As disasters supercharged by climate change cause disruption and devastation around the world. the Trump administration wants to both destroy programs meant to build more resilient countries and make it impossible for those without recourse to seek refuge in the United States. ” Markey said.
Markey also said legislation is needed now more than ever. arguing that Trump’s attacks on foreign aid programs. disregard of climate science. and attacks on immigrants come from the same playbook. Hannah Flamm. deputy director of policy at the International Refugee Assistance Program (IRAP). said the bill would also ensure agencies collect data on climate-related displacement. noting that there is vast data on internal displacement but “virtually no data on international displacement on account of climate.”.
The article reports that, in the current political environment, optimism is low. Perry said there isn’t much confidence that any change could occur anytime soon. She added that climate has been put “on the back burner to safeguard the very concept of regular migration as a whole” amid a broader push for mass deportations.
A future administration could try to implement a climate visa. the article says. but it would more likely focus on limiting damage around the world that displaces people in the first place. Yael Schacher. director for the Americas and Europe at Refugees International. said. “If the tide was to turn. it might be more for adaptation funding to help people stay where they are. rather than a new visa.” She added. “We have our own displacement in the US. too—we aren’t immune from this. ” and argued that “sympathy for immigrants. even people displaced by the worst persecution. is nil.”.
For Evelyn. the question is simpler than any legal framework: what happens to families who are already living through the kind of disasters that once drove her own escape?. She knows the answer feels harder with each year. “Every day it’s more barriers,” she said. “It’s sad to know that people will not be able to apply for a status or something to help their situation and also help the people back home.”.
Trump immigration crackdown climate refugees temporary protected status TPS Supreme Court TPS revocation Honduras Syria Haiti Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Hurricane Mitch refugee policy U.S. foreign aid cuts