North Carolina tobacco farmers are closely tracking President Donald Trump’s meeting with Xi Jinping, hoping trade outcomes in Asia can ease pressures they are already feeling from global disruptions tied to the war in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz closure.
When Matt Grissom finishes one season, he doesn’t put his plans on hold. He’s already planning for 2026—because with tobacco, the work starts long before the crop is planted.
Now, there’s another layer to his calendar: the meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.. Grissom. a North Carolina tobacco grower. says he and other farmers are watching closely. betting that what happens between two global superpowers could directly shape whether China buys more of their crop.
China has been a key buyer. The North Carolina Department of Agriculture recorded that China has purchased over $228 million worth of North Carolina tobacco annually in 2023, 2024 and 2025.
For farmers, that kind of demand matters because tobacco isn’t a one-off product.. “Year after year. tobacco plants go into the ground. ” Grissom said. describing a cycle that runs through the seasons and into constant preparation.. In his case, after finishing 2025, he said he was already working on planning for 26.
But the momentum farmers normally depend on is colliding with global events.. Grissom said they are feeling the ripple effects of the war in Iran. along with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz—developments he said are choking supply chains and driving up prices for essentials like fertilizer and jet fuel.
“We’re confident that the administration is working to resolve this trade negotiation,” Grissom said.
He points to a specific category of cost that has become unusually volatile: fertilizer.. Grissom said he is seeing the impact not just as a farmer but as an independent retailer of fertilizer. which means he’s watching prices and supply from more than one angle.. Even before the broader disruptions. farmers had been dealing with the aftershocks of international tariffs that affected the volume of tobacco China purchased.
“For North Carolina tobacco, I mean, we really depend on this a lot,” Grissom said.
He tied that dependence to 2026. If China returns to buying more, he said it could mean greater volume and more pounds for growers. At the same time, he said the domestic market is continuing to soften, declining anywhere from 12 to 14% year over year.
That softer demand has to be met with higher, harder-to-manage costs. Grissom cited urea—used in nitrogen-based fertilizer—at $865 a ton, pointing out that the price is up 55% since February. After the war started, he said, costs and availability shifted so fast that pricing became unstable.
“But once the war started, they just skyrocketed. I mean, just unexpectedly. I mean, I went three weeks and couldn’t even get a price on fertilizer. They wouldn’t sell it. They wouldn’t give a price on it because it was changing that fast,” Grissom said.
Other supply pressures are still in the background too. Diesel costs are still up, Grissom said, and he described global inventory as down. With that kind of volatility, he said he’s treating purchases like a necessity rather than a predictable input.
“With the price and the volatility of it, right now we are just buying it as needed,” Grissom said.
On top of the geopolitical squeeze, Grissom said drought in the state adds to the pressure on farmers trying to grow healthy crops.
Even with all the strains—trade uncertainties, surging fertilizer prices, higher diesel and the uncertainty tied to global shipping—Grissom said he isn’t walking away.
“I think probably what keeps myself personally and most everybody I know doing this is just the love. I absolutely love what I do every day. I mean, it’s what gets me up in the morning. It’s what I think about when I go to bed at night,” he said.
For now, the work continues like always: planting, harvesting, and planning ahead.. But for Grissom and fellow growers. Trump and Xi’s meeting carries a more immediate weight—because the question isn’t only what happens to prices abroad. it’s whether China brings demand back to a market North Carolina farmers say they still rely on heavily.
North Carolina tobacco Trump Xi meeting China tobacco purchases fertilizer prices urea $865 a ton Strait of Hormuz closure war in Iran diesel costs drought Matt Grissom