Trump won’t – Six years to the day USMCA entered into force, the Trump administration says it will not renew the deal. Instead, the United States will begin a decade of negotiations on amendments, with the possibility of separate bilateral agreements with Mexico and Canada—
When the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement entered into force six years ago, it was sold as a kind of trade backbone—something meant to keep North America steady through changing politics. Now that backbone is being pulled out.
On Wednesday, the Trump administration announced it plans to pull the plug on renewing the USMCA, a move that jolts businesses across the three countries just as they’ve started to count on the deal’s rules for years.
A senior Trump administration official told reporters that rather than renewing the agreement. the United States will begin a decade-long round of negotiations focused on amendments. One possible outcome. the official said. is that Washington could pursue separate bilateral trade agreements—one with Mexico and another with Canada.
The decision lands with particular force because it reverses a position Trump himself helped establish. The president negotiated and signed the USMCA in 2018 after he pulled out of the North American Free Trade Agreement. A year later. he called USMCA “the best and most important trade deal ever made by the USA” in a social media post.
Fast forward seven years, and the administration’s rationale is stark: it says the deal failed to deliver on the goals of modernizing and rebalancing trade between the three countries.
“The primary issues that the president’s been focused on with the world, and particularly with Canada, Mexico, is our trade deficit,” a senior Trump administration official said during the press call.
The official acknowledged that USMCA succeeded at modernization. “The agreement did succeed in modernizing the agreement,” the official said. But the key pledge—rebalancing—did not land as promised. “But with respect to rebalancing, our trade deficits with both Mexico and Canada shot up during the Biden administration.”.
The official said the administration believes USMCA did not operate in a way that kept that deficit under control. “We’ve started to get it under control. but we believe that the USMCA did not operate to control the deficit like the president intended. so that’s really the heart of it. ” the official added.
That emphasis on time—how long the change process might take—was delivered with a warning of its own. The senior official stressed that the White House is not interested in dragging out negotiations for the entirety of ten years. Periodic reviews are built into the deal.
“It’s called the Joint Review,” the official said. “And the idea was to make sure that any agreement between Mexico, Canada, and the United States always put America first, rather than let a trade deal persist on autopilot over decades.”
The administration’s dissatisfaction with USMCA is happening against a broader backdrop: from the start of his second term. Trump has placed sweeping global tariffs at the center of his economic policy. Within that framing. the administration has repeatedly taken issue with tariff exemptions on USMCA-compliant goods—exemptions that sit at the heart of how the agreement functions.
On Wednesday, the official also signaled more targeted friction between Washington and Ottawa.
Canada’s decision last year to retaliate against Trump’s tariffs became part of the story. The senior official said the administration took issue with Canada’s retaliation. Mexico. by contrast. did not impose tariff retaliation measures. and the official said Mexico is currently engaged in talks with the White House about the future of the deal.
Canada is pushing back with insistence.
Dominic LeBlanc, the Canadian minister responsible for U.S. trade relations, said in a statement Wednesday that he met with U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer earlier the same day and that Canada remains “unwavering” in its support for the trade deal.
“Canada approaches these discussions from a position of strength and with the goal of preserving and strengthening one of the most successful trading relationships in the world. ” LeBlanc said. He added a pointed reassurance aimed at Washington: “At a time of global economic uncertainty. Canada is a stable. reliable and trusted partner.”.
LeBlanc also highlighted the agreement’s staying power on paper, noting that it “remains fully in force until 2036 and can be renewed at any time for another 16-year period.”
For many companies, that distinction—between “fully in force” and “won’t be renewed”—is exactly where the anxiety begins. USMCA was implemented in 2020, and it has already reshaped trade among the three countries.
In the years since the deal was put in place, trilateral trade expanded. “Total intraregional trade in goods” rose from $1.07 trillion in 2020 to more than $1.63 trillion in 2024, according to research from The Brookings Institution.
Even with that record, business groups are split between support for the integration it brought and concern about how any new terms could upset competition.
The American Automotive Policy Council said on Wednesday that “North American economic integration enables enormous competitive benefits for the region.” But it argued that U.S. automakers “face a disadvantage versus imports from countries whose exports face a flat 15 percent tariff and are not subject to comparable rules of origin.” The council urged “a swift and durable resolution that ensures a level playing field and provides long-term certainty needed for capital-intensive automotive investments.”.
The Business Roundtable. representing many of the largest American companies including JPMorgan Chase. Home Depot. Hilton and Pepsico. said the deal has brought “significant economic benefits.” It argued that as USMCA reaches “this important milestone. ” the three governments can better align policies against “unfair trading practices. ” reduce “regulatory and economic friction within the region. ” and position North America to compete with “non-market economies.” The group urged Washington to “strengthen and extend USMCA.”.
Taken together. the message from Wednesday was clear even before negotiators start drafting amendments: the administration believes USMCA did not rebalance trade the way it intended. while Canada calls the relationship a proven success that remains governed until 2036. For businesses now trying to plan investments. the next question is less abstract—whether the decade of negotiations will bring stability back. or whether the region’s trade rules will start to wobble for years.
USMCA Trump administration trade deficit Canada Mexico Jamieson Greer Dominic LeBlanc tariffs North American trade business impact