Virginia Democrats chose not to pursue a high-stakes strategy to protect four House seats, tightening their path to retaining control.

But Surovell told me he’s discussed the situation with Jeffries and with Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger.. And Survovell confirmed that in the conversation with Jeffries, he ran through all these obstacles.. The loss of those four Virginia seats will unquestionably make it harder for Democrats to win the House, though success is still probably likely.. According to calculations by G.. Elliott Morris, under the most likely scenario for GOP gerrymandering, Democrats now must win the

national popular vote this fall by nearly three points to win the House.. Under a doomsday scenario in which Republicans gerrymander to the fullest extent possible, Dems would have to win the popular vote by four points.. The Times’ Nate Cohn similarly calculates it at four.. It’s plausible that Democrats could still win one or two of those four Virginia seats anyway, despite losing the new map, if things go well this fall.. But at

the very least, the failure to go nuclear to get those four House seats back means the Democrats’ margin for error in winning the House is substantially tighter.

Virginia House seats, GOP gerrymandering, Democratic margin, national popular vote, Jeffries, Abigail Spanberger