Trump locks in high summer gas prices—possibly longer

Trump locks – More than 100 days into the U.S.-Israel attacks on Iran, oil and natural gas production disruptions are no longer expected to fade quickly. Analysts say closures tied to the Strait of Hormuz, regional infrastructure damage, and the drawdown timeline of U.S.-li

For weeks, President Donald Trump insisted the U.S.-Israel war against Iran would be over in four to five weeks. In those first days, the logic was simple: if the conflict ended fast, energy markets could rebound quickly toward prewar oil and natural gas pricing.

That timeline has broken down. More than 100 days later, with the war still dragging on and no clear end in sight, Trump and his allies have effectively locked in a summer of elevated energy prices—and possibly beyond.

The reason isn’t just the war itself, but the choke point. Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz has kept oil prices elevated well above prewar levels. even as governments released crude from strategic petroleum reserves around the world. And damage has accumulated. There has been significant damage to oil and natural gas infrastructure across the region—damage that does not disappear the moment fighting stops.

David Victor, director of the Deep Decarbonization Initiative at the University of California, San Diego, put it bluntly. “We’ve already locked ourselves into disruptions that will probably last for at least three to six months.” In his assessment. even if the war ended tomorrow and the Strait of Hormuz were fully open. the effect on prices would not be immediate. Victor said the end of the war would hit global energy markets with a delay. the same way the beginning of the war did—because it takes time for changes to work their way through global supply chains.

Oil futures have reflected the volatility and the gap between expectation and reality. The futures price of Brent crude—an international benchmark—closed at $72.48 per barrel on Feb. 27, the last trading day before the U.S. and Israel attacks. After the attacks, Brent experienced sharp fluctuations.

Victor described why that matters for the question Americans are already asking at the pump. “When the war began, there was a huge amount of oil at sea already,” he said. He added that the Saudis and others expected the crisis to arrive. so they started pumping more and pushing more into the market. and that has taken time to work off.

The price shock isn’t limited to oil. Victor said inflation has risen as fuel costs climbed, and he pointed to signs of a broader economic slowdown. Travel and tourism have been hit disproportionately by soaring jet fuel prices. and electronics manufacturing has faced serious pressure from both higher fuel costs and the rise in the price of fossil fuel byproducts. including helium.

A longer conflict could also intensify demand destruction—when higher prices or shortages force people to use less of a commodity—and sustained high prices can push consumers and businesses toward efficiency. Victor used the 1970s oil shocks as a reference point. “We saw oil prices go up by a factor of three almost overnight, and it triggered economic recession,” he said. He acknowledged other factors were at work. but said the spike also drove a massive effort to find ways to remove oil from uses where substitutes exist. and to become radically more efficient.

Even with strategic releases, the recovery window that once looked plausible is shrinking. Max Pyziur, director of research programs at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, told Salon that the window for a quick recovery has already passed—but warned that a sharper cliff could be ahead.

In March. the International Energy Agency announced the release of 400 million barrels of oil from strategic petroleum reserves of member countries. Pyziur said releases at that scale do not drain instantly because countries release at different rates. Still, he expects the pool to run dry by the end of the summer—roughly 12 weeks from now. Until then, he said, prices are likely to remain elevated, though not in an unprecedented way.

The sharper break comes after those reserves are used up. “Once we get past these strategic oil reserves, we might be seeing $150 per barrel of oil,” Pyziur said, adding that this is when conditions become more acute.

For the United States, Pyziur doesn’t expect outright shortages because the U.S. is wealthy and has large domestic production. But he still expects the high oil prices to spread outward—showing up as even higher prices for gasoline, jet fuel, and other petroleum products.

His timeline doesn’t stop at summer. Pyziur said that after the end of the petroleum reserve releases. another economic inflection point could arrive in the next six to eight months. That window is tied to acute shortages of other products that transit the Strait of Hormuz. “There are already acute shortages in natural gas,” he said. He also pointed to shortages in fertilizer and helium.

If the problem isn’t curtailed within six to eight months, Pyziur warned, “you’ll see challenges.”

Taken together. the facts trace a sequence that is hard to escape: the Strait of Hormuz closure keeps prices elevated. infrastructure damage prevents a rapid return to prewar output. strategic reserves soften the impact for a limited period. and the drawdown schedule points toward renewed pressure after summer—followed by possible strain months later as other key products remain constrained.

The political promise at the start of the conflict was speed—four to five weeks. The market reality now looks measured in months, with Americans still set to pay for the disruption long after the first assurances were made.

United States politics Trump gas prices oil prices Strait of Hormuz strategic petroleum reserves International Energy Agency Brent crude inflation natural gas shortages fertilizer shortages helium shortages