Trump-backed Michigan Senate candidate Mike Rogers urged AIPAC not to intervene in race against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed as polling shows Americans turning on support for Israel

Republican Senate nominee Mike Rogers‘ campaign has asked the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) not to run advertisements on his behalf against Democratic rival Abdul El-Sayed.

Rogers spoke with AIPAC chair Michael Tuchin in Los Angeles and the following day the organization shelved a prepared video advertisement targeting El-Sayed. The decision has strained relations between Rogers and one of Washington‘s most influential pro-Israel political organizations as public opinion on Israel continues to shift.

What to know

Rogers’ decision angered AIPAC officials, whose affiliated groups had already spent more than $30 million trying to defeat El-Sayed in the Democratic primary and were prepared to spend millions more to support Rogers in the general election.

Rogers’ aides reportedly warned AIPAC before the primary that El-Sayed could defeat moderate Rep. Haley Stevens. AIPAC continued its involvement, expecting Stevens to win.

El-Sayed, a progressive critic of Israel’s government, defeated Stevens by one percentage point, 48.5 percent to 47.5 percent, setting up a general election against Rogers, a former congressman and strong supporter of Israel who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump.

Rogers’ outreach and AIPAC’s response

Talks between Rogers’ campaign and AIPAC have since stalled, prompting Republican donors with ties to both sides to try to broker a reconciliation.

Some national Republicans worry AIPAC’s super PAC could sit out the general election, while others believe the group has too much at stake to permanently break with Rogers.

AIPAC officials were reportedly unhappy with Rogers’ request, arguing that because he is strongly pro-Israel, El-Sayed would associate him with the group regardless of whether it advertised on his behalf.

Rogers publicly framed his position differently, telling Axios, “I welcome any and all support from the pro-Israel community and I’m proud to have their involvement.”

AIPAC spokesperson Deryn Sousa told the outlet: “We appreciate [former] Rep. Mike Rogers’ welcoming of pro-Israel support. Our members are highly motivated to be involved in this race and we will be looking at every option to make the case that El-Sayed’s policies are bad for Michigan and bad for America.”

Newsweek reached out to AIPAC and both campaigns for comment.

AIPAC’s Michigan spending

AIPAC and its affiliated political action committees have become major spenders in congressional and statewide races, drawing criticism from progressive Democrats.

During the Michigan primary, the AIPAC-aligned United Democracy Project spent nearly $15 million. About two-thirds supported Stevens, while the rest went toward defeating El-Sayed.

El-Sayed has said he hopes to repeat the strategy that helped him win the primary by campaigning against AIPAC’s political influence. He has criticized the group’s spending and campaigned on rejecting corporate PAC money.

He has also described Israel’s military campaign in Gaza as genocide, an allegation Israel has repeatedly denied and called for an end to unconditional U.S. military aid to Israel.

After winning the primary, El-Sayed addressed accusations of antisemitism, saying, “To my Jewish American sisters and brothers … I want you to know that my commitment to your safety, my commitment to Jewish safety, is the same commitment that I have to the safety of my own daughters.”

Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders, who endorsed El-Sayed, described the primary as not a contest “between Abdul and Haley Stevens. It is Abdul vs. AIPAC.”

Doug Gordon, a Democratic strategist at Upshift Strategies, told Newsweek before the primary that an El-Sayed victory would be “a huge defeat for AIPAC and another sign of how toxic their brand has become within Democratic politics.”

Jim Kessler, executive vice president for policy at Third Way, told Newsweek that Michigan’s demographics could shape the race. The state has a higher percentage of Arab American residents than any other state, while its Jewish population is less than half that size.

Michigan’s political landscape

The Senate seat is open after Democratic Sen. Gary Peters announced his retirement. Democrats have held the seat for decades, but Michigan has produced close results in recent election cycles.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the race a “toss-up.”

Trump carried Michigan in 2024 with 49.7 percent of the vote to then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ 48.3 percent. President Joe Biden won the state in 2020 by 50.6 percent to 47.8 percent, while Trump narrowly carried it in 2016 by 0.23 percentage points, or roughly 10,700 votes.

Republicans currently hold a 53-47 Senate majority. Democrats need to gain four seats this cycle while defending their own, with the economy, the Iran war and Trump’s approval rating among the issues that could shape the race.

Polling in the El-Sayed vs. Rogers race

Recent polling shows a competitive race, with most surveys placing the candidates within several points of each other.

An AARP poll released August 20 found El-Sayed leading Rogers 48 percent to 47 percent among 877 likely voters surveyed August 9-11 by Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research. The margin of error was 3.3 percentage points.

A TIPP survey of 1,528 registered Michigan voters conducted August 6-10 for the League of American Workers found El-Sayed ahead 45 percent to 42 percent. El-Sayed had a 39 percent favorable rating and 44 percent unfavorable rating, while Rogers was 37 percent favorable and 42 percent unfavorable. The margin of error was 2.6 percentage points.

A Fox News poll of 1,006 registered voters conducted during the same week found Rogers ahead 51 percent to 47 percent, with a 3 percentage-point margin of error.

Susquehanna Polling and Research surveyed 800 likely voters from August 11-17 and found El-Sayed leading 46 percent to 39 percent, with a 3.46 percentage-point margin of error.

Prediction markets also favored El-Sayed. As of August 22, Kalshi gave him a 61 percent chance of winning compared with 39 percent for Rogers. Polymarket gave El-Sayed a 64 percent chance compared with 37 percent for Rogers.

Shifting public opinion on Israel

American attitudes toward Israel have shifted since Hamas’ October 7, 2023, attack, which killed roughly 1,200 people and resulted in about 250 hostages being taken, followed by Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

A June AP-NORC poll of 3,040 adults found 58 percent of Democrats believed the U.S. was too supportive of Israel, up from 45 percent in January 2024. Sixty percent of Republicans said current support levels were “about right.”

Overall, 31 percent of adults said Israel’s military actions in Gaza constitute genocide, while 49 percent said they did not know enough to say and 20 percent said they did not. Sixty-two percent of Democrats said the U.S. was not supportive enough of Palestinians, up from 49 percent in January 2024.

A separate AP-NORC survey of 1,022 Jewish adults found Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had a 32 percent favorable rating and 59 percent unfavorable rating. Thirty-eight percent said the U.S. was too supportive of Israel, compared with 24 percent who said it was too supportive of Palestinians.

Thirty percent of Jewish respondents said Israel had committed genocide against Palestinians, while 49 percent said it had not and 21 percent said they did not know enough to answer.

A Pew Research survey of 12,574 Americans conducted May 4-17 found Republicans’ favorable view of the Israeli government had fallen to 51 percent and Democrats’ to 16 percent, down from 65 percent and 35 percent, respectively, in 2022.

A May Reuters/Ipsos poll found Israel’s favorability rating among Democrats had fallen to 22 percent from 59 percent in 2018.