Three-week tracking has Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 5 on pace for a $150 million opening, potentially surpassing Toy Story 4’s $120.9M and becoming the biggest 2026 year-to-date start ahead of Super Mario Galaxy Movie. Tickets went on sale Tuesday, with the film
On Tuesday. tickets went on sale for Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 5—an announcement that landed with unusual force in the middle of a crowded summer calendar. Now. three weeks of tracking are pointing to a $150 million three-day opening for the animated feature co-directed by Andrew Stanton and Kenna Harris.
If that projection holds, it would be a franchise record—beating Toy Story 4’s $120.9M opening back in pre-Covid 2019. It also reshapes the year-to-date race: a $150 million start would represent the biggest opening of 2026 so far. topping the three-day of Illumination/Nintendo/Universal’s Super Mario Galaxy Movie at $131.7M.
The timing matters, too. Toy Story 5 is set to open on Pixar’s prized weekend of June 19. That places it directly in the middle of families’ summer plans, with Disney expecting “plenty of families,” including mom and dad as well as granny and gramps.
The current tracking also suggests strong momentum inside the audience mix. The first choice—among women and men under 25—is leading. and overall first choice and all four quad demos are ahead of Toy Story 4. They’re slightly behind Super Mario Galaxy Movie. but the gap isn’t large enough to soften the headline number now sitting at $150 million. For Disney, that matters because anything north of Toy Story 4’s $120.9M is being treated as “sublime.”.
There’s also a quieter detail behind the excitement: tracking for Toy Story 4 originally overshot its projection when it opened. hitting a real-world moment of disbelief—“Wah. really?” Now Toy Story 5 is dealing with that same kind of pressure. because the benchmark it’s trying to beat is coming from a start that already proved the franchise could outperform expectations.
One thing supporters will point to is that Toy Story 5 is only the fifth film in a 31-year-old franchise. It’s not treated as oversaturated, and the demo picture doesn’t read like fatigue. Overall first choice is also ahead of Inside Out 2, which post-Covid debuted to $154.2M back in June 2024.
The franchise chatter is happening at a time when the domestic animated ceiling has already been defined. The biggest opening ever for an animated movie at the domestic box office belongs to Disney/Pixar’s Incredibles 2 with $182.6M.
In the same window, another title is picking up its own forecast. A24’s Michael Sarnoski-directed The Death of Robin Hood is tracking today to an under-$10M three-day forecast.
And with all of it unfolding around June 19. the question for moviegoers is no longer whether Toy Story 5 will draw attention—it’s how high its opening can go. and whether it can turn a strong forecast into a franchise moment that finally tops even the biggest names Pixar has previously set at the domestic box office.
Toy Story 5 Andrew Stanton Kenna Harris Disney Pixar box office tracking June 19 opening $150 million Toy Story 4 $120.9M Super Mario Galaxy Movie $131.7M Inside Out 2 $154.2M Incredibles 2 $182.6M
$150M opening is insane. I don’t even remember Toy Story 4 like that lol.
So tickets went on sale Tuesday and it’s already tracking for $150 million?? That seems like they’re just guessing. Also June 19 is gonna be chaos with families, can’t wait.
Wtf “biggest 2026 year-to-date start” like the year isn’t even halfway over. Isn’t Super Mario Galaxy Movie just from like last week or whatever? I swear titles and release dates get recycled in this stuff.
I love Toy Story but I’m side-eyeing these opening numbers. They said Toy Story 4 “originally overshot” and people were like “Wah really?” so now they’re doing the same thing again? If it doesn’t hit $150M then Disney gonna blame tracking or “audience mix” or something. Also why does it matter which weekend Pixar picks, like the toys don’t know the calendar.