Tigers decision – With Detroit’s postseason chances fading, the Tigers face a trade-off: selling closer-to-prime starter Casey Mize could help offset the cost of keeping him, but the same logic may argue for holding him as they chase bigger returns around Tarik Skubal.
When the Detroit Tigers’ season started to tip toward the wrong direction, the math didn’t take long to catch up. Through May 30, their postseason odds sat at 9.5 percent—higher than only two other American League teams, the Kansas City Royals and the Los Angeles Angels.
That shrinking window is doing more than lowering expectations inside the clubhouse. It’s also quietly tightening the deadline clock for every serious conversation the front office has to have about who stays and who gets moved.
Casey Mize is at the center of that debate. even if he’s not the headline name in the Tigers’ trade talk. Mize, the first overall pick in the 2018 MLB Draft, has had an up-and-down run since arriving in Detroit. Lately, the results have been trending the right way. Through the end of May, Mize is 2-3 with a 2.27 ERA across nine starts. Even with the Tigers providing limited run support—22-38 through the month—he’s pitching like he’s doing more than simply surviving. He’s averaging more than a strikeout per inning, and his WHIP is 0.97.
But when the Tigers discuss potential sellers, the spotlight lands on left-hander Tarik Skubal, the twice-reigning American League Cy Young Award winner. Skubal is currently on the injured list while recovering from an elbow procedure.
Skubal is the more obvious trade candidate for reasons that go beyond performance. He won’t sign a long-term extension before the season ends. and he would reject any qualifying offer from the Tigers at year’s end. For Detroit. that combination creates a clear urgency: if the season keeps sliding. the question becomes whether they get value now rather than risk losing the option later.
Mize’s candidacy is where the decision gets complicated.
At 29. his counting stats suggest he’s in his prime. and his secondary skill indicators point to why he would interest contenders before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. His swing-and-miss rate. his ability to limit hard contact. and a 6.5 percent walk rate would put him among the best available starters on the market before that cutoff.
The counterargument is just as real. The Tigers could talk themselves into re-signing Mize for less than it would cost to re-sign Skubal at the end of the season. That makes selling him before the deadline feel riskier—especially if Detroit’s belief is that Mize can be retained at a manageable price.
If Mize stays in Detroit through the end of the season. the plan could be simple: he would reject the qualifying offer. which is a one-year contract worth the mean salary of MLB’s 125 highest-paid players. after a strong platform year. But the Tigers’ willingness to cash him in before the trade deadline would depend on whether they see a path that looks better than re-signing.
There’s also a draft-pick lever that can change the tone of the entire offseason. If Mize signs elsewhere in 2027, Detroit would receive draft-pick compensation. That possibility could make it easier for the Tigers to let him play out the year in Detroit rather than sell him before Aug. 3.
All of it loops back to the way Scott Harris, the Tigers’ president of baseball operations, is likely weighing outcomes. A stunning collapse to the bottom of the American League has left Detroit with a stark choice: either pursue a full teardown if losses continue at the current clip. or maximize value by turning one marquee asset into a strong haul.
Harris might prefer to cash in on a singular package for Skubal—especially since Skubal is likely headed elsewhere next year anyway—rather than dismantle everything in a complete reversal of course. If that is the approach, Mize could end up staying in Detroit after the deadline passes.
If it isn’t, Harris would be holding two of baseball’s best trade chips in one rotation. And with the Tigers’ postseason odds sitting at 9.5 percent through May 30, the window for waiting too long is closing fast.
Detroit Tigers Casey Mize Tarik Skubal MLB trade deadline postseason odds Scott Harris American League Cy Young trade rumors