A new Texas study tracking more than 1.7 million students finds that differences in Algebra I pass rates by income and race can be traced largely to how well children master foundational math skills—skills that show up as early as third grade and are built lon
In many districts. Algebra I is treated like a turning point—if students pass. they’re more likely to take advanced math courses. graduate from college. and earn more money as adults. But for students who fall short, the moment isn’t really the first day of Algebra I. It starts much earlier, in the quiet accumulation of skills they learn—or don’t.
A recent working paper analyzing test scores of over 1.7 million Texas students zeroes in on that timeline. It found that the gaps in Algebra I pass rates between low-income. Black and Hispanic students and their more affluent. white and Asian peers can largely be traced to how well students master early. foundational math skills. Third grade math scores. the paper found. are the first point when researchers can clearly capture how students are learning those early concepts—and how that learning maps onto who will succeed in Algebra I later.
Ben Backes. a principal economist at the American Institutes for Research and one of the authors of the working paper. put it plainly: third grade is not where the story begins. “Education doesn’t start in third grade. ” he said. describing the earlier years as the place where foundational skills are built.
The study was conducted by AIR and the National Center for the Analysis of Longitudinal Data in Education Research. or CALDER. It focused on Algebra I in particular because the course is so pivotal for students—and because its pass rate has become a major marker of whether a student is on the path toward more advanced coursework.
Then there is the pandemic. The working paper also captured how COVID-19 derailed academic growth of some students. Low-income students who had the same test scores as more affluent peers fell further behind. Students with already low test scores saw a steeper decline in their math skills compared to students with higher scores. In other words, the pandemic didn’t just slow progress—it widened gaps.
School and district leaders have tried to address Algebra I outcomes through scheduling and placement policies. Some efforts include delaying the class until ninth grade or enrolling all students in the course. But the paper’s authors argued that those approaches may not reach the problem’s foundation. “Our results underscore the importance of targeting resources to early elementary math instruction, especially for low-achieving students,” the authors concluded.
For Deborah Stipek, the message is urgent—but getting it implemented is another challenge. Stipek is the faculty director for Development and Research in Early Mathematics Education. a network of scholars focused on improving math instruction for young children. She also serves as a professor emerita at Stanford University.
Her concern is what happens once the abstract research turns into day-to-day priorities for educators. In California. she said. education majors take two or three courses on teaching reading. compared to one course on math education. And in a recent survey of nearly 100 California superintendents. the majority ranked English language arts as their top instructional priority; math was third.
Stipek described what that imbalance looks like in classrooms. “In places where you have a very large group of kids that are living in poverty or learning English, you have classrooms where the majority of kids by first grade are way behind,” she said. “We need more and better teaching, in general.”
The core of the research—and the frustration it points to—is that Algebra I doesn’t have to be a first battle for many students. The evidence suggests it often becomes the stage where earlier learning gaps finally show up, after years of foundational instruction.
The story about early math was produced by The Hechinger Report, a nonprofit, independent news organization focused on inequality and innovation in education.
Algebra I third grade math early elementary math instruction Texas students achievement gaps pandemic learning loss low-income students Black and Hispanic students policy placement American Institutes for Research CALDER Hechinger Report