As beef supply hits a 75-year low, Texas barbecue owners say soaring cattle and feed costs are forcing closures and spiking prices—turning brisket into a daily worry for pitmasters and consumers alike.
In Texas, barbecue isn’t just dinner. It’s a ritual people plan around—brisket plates, late-night pickup runs, family gatherings that revolve around smoke and sauce.
But inside more kitchens across the state, the same question is starting to sound like a drumbeat: how long can you stay open when the price of beef keeps moving upward?
Closures have already reached longtime favorites, including Kirby’s BBQ in New Caney and Brett’s BBQ Shop in Katy. The strain is tied to a drop in the U.S. cattle supply to a 75-year low, a historic shortage of beef that has pushed costs up and sent prices soaring.
Gbenga Ajilore, chief economist at the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, put it bluntly: “The biggest reason that the price of beef is so high is that the supply of cattle has been diminishing. With lower supply, there’s going to be higher prices.”
He said several forces are feeding the problem at once. Recent droughts have limited grazing areas and contributed to feed issues for cattle. Ajilore also pointed to high fuel prices and fertilizer supply issues linked to the Iran war—conditions that add pressure for ranchers trying to keep costs under control.
For Texas barbecue restaurants, those costs don’t sit in the background. They hit the menu and then land on the cash register.
Emily Williams Knight, president and CEO of the Texas Restaurant Association, described how sharply barbecue prices have jumped. “Four years ago, it cost about 29 cents for the brisket on a sandwich. That is almost $6 today, and that’s before you add potentially 12 hours of labor [cost], because brisket’s very labor-intensive,” she said. “You add the pickle. the sauce. the bun. the credit card swipe fees. and so what you’re seeing is this sort of incredible increase. almost 40% to 50%. is driving these barbecue restaurants right out of business.”.
Knight’s numbers capture what many customers may not realize—brisket is only the start. The labor, the add-ons, and the fees stack up in a way that makes even small price changes feel like a breaking point.
Longtime pitmaster Russell Roegels, owner of Roegels Barbecue Co. in Houston, said price uncertainty has become part of the job every day.
“The biggest concern for us in the barbecue industry is how high is it gonna go,” he said.
Roegels’ worry isn’t abstract. The business is tightly tied to one product—brisket—because the Texas barbecue identity is built on it.
“We are a protein-driven industry in barbecue … if I spend $100,000 a month on groceries to bring in here, $45,000 of that is brisket alone,” Roegels said. “So 45% of my entire food that I buy is briskets. And it’s, you know, steadily creeping up.”
That steady creep is now spilling into shoppers’ routines. Consumers are feeling the pinch at the grocery store as well, with ground beef prices up nearly 15% since last year, based on the latest Consumer Price Index data.
The hardest part for restaurant owners is that relief may not arrive soon. Knight said stabilizing prices depends on rebuilding cattle numbers—something that takes far longer than most other food supply adjustments.
“As far as pricing becoming more normal, or maybe not continuing to accelerate, we were really looking at the replenishment of the cattle herd,” Knight told ABC News. “Unfortunately, you just can’t replace a cattle in months, like other protein sources. It takes years.”
For now, Roegels and others are trying to stay alive by urging customers to adjust expectations and keep local shops running.
For Roegels, that includes asking people to support neighborhood barbecue joints and consider alternatives to brisket. It’s a request that comes with the emotion of someone who’s been in the business for more than 30 years.
“It’s a fear for me on a daily basis,” Roegels said. “All I would ask is … my customers, and customers of every other barbecue place out there, support your local barbecue joint. We want them to eat pork. We want them to eat chicken. We want them to eat turkey. But brisket is Texas barbecue. That’s just what defines Texas barbecue.”.
The shortage has turned a beloved state tradition into a moving target—one that diners can taste, owners can’t ignore, and pitmasters now hope the public will help them protect before more doors close.
Texas barbecue pitmasters brisket prices beef shortage 75-year low cattle supply drought cattle feed fuel prices fertilizer supply issues Texas Restaurant Association Roegels Barbecue Co. Kirby's BBQ Brett's BBQ Shop Consumer Price Index
So brisket is basically luxury food now. Cool.
Wait are they closing because of the beef shortage or because people stopped coming? Seems like every time prices go up, some places just decide to shut down. Sad though, I always thought BBQ was like the one thing that never changed.
The Iran war thing is wild like how does that even connect to my lunch. If fuel and fertilizer are up then ranchers pay more, sure, but then why does it feel like grocery stores still mark it up way higher? Like they blame supply but I don’t buy it. Also 75-year low cattle supply?? that sounds fake to me.
I don’t get how a brisket sandwich went from pennies to almost $6, that’s basically a scam unless the meat quality changed. And these shops in Katy and New Caney, I’ll bet it’s just rent or staffing, not “75-year low” cattle. Brisket is supposed to be affordable at least for Texans, not something you plan around like it’s tickets to a game. My family’s gonna stop ordering it if they keep adding labor costs too, like come on.