Texas Gov. Greg Abbott’s bid for a fourth term jeopardized as Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa gains on him, narrowing his lead to just 1 point in closer-than-expected race

Texas Gov. Greg Abbott‘s bid for a fourth term is facing new turbulence after a poll showed the Republican incumbent leading Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa by just 1 percentage point, a far narrower margin than expected heading into the election.

The Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation survey of 1,167 likely Texas voters, conducted August 24-26, found Abbott ahead of Hinojosa 46.9 percent to 45.8 percent, with about 7 percent undecided. When “leaners” were included, Abbott’s support rose to 51.2 percent compared with Hinojosa’s 48.8 percent.

A historically red state turns competitive

Texas has not elected a Democratic governor since Ann Richards won in 1990 and has backed the Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980. Still, Democrats have grown increasingly optimistic about their chances this cycle, citing President Donald Trump‘s weak national approval ratings.

Mark Jones, a politics professor at Rice University, told Newsweek that the political environment has shifted in Democrats’ favor.

“Texas is a red state, but this cycle, due in large part to the unpopularity of the Trump administration, is a pink state, with its U.S. Senate race landing in the purple category due to Texas Republican primary voters’ decision to nominate the most flawed major statewide candidate in modern GOP history,” Jones said.

The Cook Political Report still rates the governor’s race as “Likely Republican,” though it downgraded the contest from “Solid Republican” in late August.

Hinojosa responds to the numbers

Hinojosa framed the close poll as evidence that her campaign is gaining momentum.

“Our campaign is only getting stronger as more voters get to know me. I am running to secure the American Dream in Texas by saving our public schools and putting money in your pocket with an economy built for the people, not billionaires,” she said in a statement sent to Newsweek on August 26.

Newsweek reported that it contacted Abbott’s campaign for comment by email on the same day.

Academics urge caution on the poll

Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston, cautioned against treating a single poll as evidence that Abbott has become an underdog.

“This poll changes the temperature of the governor’s race, but not necessarily the favorite. This is evidence that the political environment is competitive rather than evidence Abbott has suddenly become an underdog,” Rottinghaus said. “Still, this is closer than Republicans would want.”

Calvin Jillson, a political science professor at Southern Methodist University, questioned how the poll allocated voters who leaned toward a candidate.

“I worry about how leaners are allocated between the candidates; it seems implausible to me that leaners will break 2-to-1 for the Republican candidates, Abbott and Paxton, given the current political climate,” Jillson told Newsweek.

Trump’s approval ratings loom over the race

The same Overton Insights/Texas Public Policy Foundation survey found that 56 percent of respondents disapproved of Trump’s job performance, compared with 44 percent who approved.

Nationally, Civiqs’ rolling online tracking poll of registered voters showed Trump with 35 percent approval and 59 percent disapproval as of August 28, for a net rating of negative 24 points. The tracker, which began after Trump’s January 20, 2025, inauguration, had collected more than 127,000 responses as of September 1.

Nate Silver‘s Silver Bulletin polling average put Trump’s net approval at negative 19.5 as of August 26, with 38.2 percent approving and 58 percent disapproving.

Jones told Newsweek that Trump’s ratings are weighing on Republicans nationwide.

“This survey result underscores the extent to which President Trump’s low approval ratings are dragging down Republican candidates across the country, transforming light blue states into dark blue states, purple states into light blue states, pink states into purple states and red states into pink states,” Jones said.

Abbott’s career and the stakes of a fourth term

Abbott, a staunch Trump ally, was first elected governor in 2014 and won reelection in 2018 and 2022. A victory this November would put him on track to become the longest-serving governor in Texas history, surpassing Rick Perry, who served from 2000 to 2015.

Abbott defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by 11 points in 2022.

Hinojosa, a lawyer who was sworn into the Texas House of Representatives in 2017, won the Democratic nomination for governor.

Despite the close polling, prediction markets still view Abbott as the heavy favorite. Kalshi gave Abbott an 82 percent chance of winning, while Polymarket put his odds at 81.3 percent, according to figures reported by Newsweek.

What other polls have shown

While the Overton Insights survey showed the narrowest margin, most other polls have given Abbott a wider lead over Hinojosa, though still smaller than his 2022 advantage.

A Texas Public Opinion Research survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted August 21-24 gave Abbott a 49 percent to 42 percent lead, with 7 percent undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.3 percentage points. The same pollster had Abbott ahead by 3 points in July, 5 points in May and 5 points in April.

A Texas Southern University poll of 1,200 likely voters conducted July 27-30 found Abbott leading 49 percent to 43 percent, with 5 percent undecided and 3 percent supporting Libertarian candidate Pat Dixon. Abbott had a 48 percent favorable rating and 51 percent unfavorable rating, while Hinojosa was viewed favorably by 37 percent and unfavorably by 28 percent.

The poll also found Abbott leading among white voters by 24 points and men by 24 points, while Hinojosa led Latino voters by 14 points, Black voters by 59 points and women by 11 points. Hinojosa also had significantly lower name recognition, with 65 percent saying they knew enough about her to form an opinion compared with 99 percent for Abbott. The margin of error was plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

An earlier Texas Public Opinion Research poll of 1,048 likely voters conducted July 15-17 showed Abbott ahead 45 percent to 42 percent, with about 10 percent undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.

That survey found Hinojosa leading independents by 5 points and moderates by 18 points, along with large advantages among Black voters at 49 points and Latino voters at 38 points. Abbott led college-educated voters by 9 points and white voters by 29 points.

A New York Times/Siena College poll of 656 likely voters conducted June 19-27 showed Abbott ahead 51 percent to 44 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll of 1,200 registered voters conducted June 5-12 put Abbott ahead 47 percent to 40 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points.

Abbott’s financial edge

Abbott entered the race with $106 million in the bank, according to The Texas Tribune. Texans for Greg Abbott, his principal campaign committee, had spent more than $54.5 million during the election cycle and reported more than $67.2 million in cash on hand as of August, according to Texas Ethics Commission filings.

Jones told Newsweek that Hinojosa faces a significant financial disadvantage.

“Unlike the U.S. Senate race where Talarico and his supporters are on a level financial playing field with Paxton [right now, better positioned, actually, Jones said], Hinojosa will likely be dramatically outspent by Abbott,” he said.

Hinojosa’s campaign had spent just under $4 million and had about $3 million in cash on hand, according to filings reviewed by Newsweek.

The parallel Senate race

Texas’ U.S. Senate race between Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Rep. James Talarico is also nearly tied.

The Overton Insights poll found Talarico leading Paxton 44 percent to 43.4 percent, with 12.6 percent undecided. With leaners included, both candidates had 50 percent support.

The Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball both rate the Senate contest a “toss-up.” Paxton, who is endorsed by Trump, defeated longtime Sen. John Cornyn in the Republican primary in late May.

Jones said the Senate numbers reinforce the broader statewide trend.

“This poll fits in with the general trend shown by most other polls that the statewide elections in Texas are very competitive, with Greg Abbott outperforming Ken Paxton or Gina Hinojosa underperforming James Talarico,” Jones said.

Rottinghaus said some voters could split their tickets between the two races.

“Modern Texas is much less of a ballot-splitting state than it once was. We will certainly see some selective ticket splitting: voters who are willing to vote Abbott for governor but Talarico for Senate,” he said.

An Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of 1,000 likely voters conducted August 9-11 found Paxton leading Talarico 47 percent to 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided and 2 percent backing another candidate. The margin of error was plus or minus 3 percentage points.

A Fox News poll of 1,006 registered voters conducted July 23-27 found Talarico leading Paxton 51 percent to 48 percent, with 1 percent undecided and a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.