Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton gets four warning signs in new poll as Senate race against Democrat James Talarico turns increasingly competitive
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton is facing four warning signs in a new poll as Democrat James Talarico takes a narrow lead in their increasingly competitive Senate race. A University of Texas/Texas Politics Project survey puts Talarico at 42% and Paxton at 39%, a reversal from June. The results add to growing evidence that Democrats might have a realistic chance to flip a state that has long been considered a Republican stronghold.
James Talarico moves ahead as Ken Paxton loses ground
The poll, conducted August 5-13 among 1,200 registered voters, has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.83 percentage points. Notably, 14% of poll-takers remained undecided, meaning the race is far from settled.
In June, Paxton led Talarico 43% to 42%. His support has since fallen among Republicans, from 84% to 79%, while Talarico has attracted the support of 91% of Democrats. Among independents, Talarico leads Paxton 37% to 11%. This is the first warning sign for Paxton.
Republican enthusiasm trails Democrats
The second warning sign is turnout motivation. Fifty percent of Democrats described themselves as “extremely” motivated to vote, compared with 39% of Republicans and just 20% of independents.
That represents a change from August 2022, when 52% of Republicans said they were extremely enthusiastic about voting, compared with 48% of Democrats. With the race this close, the enthusiasm gap could become an important decisive factor.
Ken Paxton’s favorability problem
Talarico also holds a substantial advantage in personal favorability. He is viewed favorably by 42% of voters and unfavorably by 32%, giving him a +10 rating. Paxton, meanwhile, is at 34% favorable and 47% unfavorable, netting a -13 rating. His numbers are particularly weak among independents, where 19% view him favorably and 48% unfavorably.
Furthermore, Paxton’s political baggage includes his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House over allegations including bribery and abuse of public trust, although the Texas Senate later acquitted him. He has called the impeachment a “weaponization of our political system” that was “designed to intimidate, bankrupt, silence and punish me for representing the voters instead of the entrenched political establishment.”
Donald Trump’s approval ratings and the changing Texas political landscape
The fourth warning sign is President Donald Trump’s declining standing in Texas. The new poll found that Trump’s approval is underwater in Texas despite him carrying the state in 2024. Paxton is a close Trump ally and received the president’s endorsement, making Trump’s political strength potentially important to the Republican campaign.
Several other surveys have also shown Talarico commanding a narrow lead over Paxton, while The Cook Political Report moved the race from “lean” Republican to a toss-up on August 20, citing increasingly competitive public and private polling.
However, it should be noted that Texas remains a difficult target for Democrats. No Democrat has won a U.S. Senate race in the state since Lloyd Bentsen in 1988, and Texas has historically always voted for Republican candidates in presidential races. Trump himself carried the state by 14 points in 2024.