Texans bet big on running, Montgomery value

Houston’s 2026 fantasy picture still lives in a familiar place: a team built to run the ball, squeeze defenses, and let C.J. Stroud operate in controlled doses. With David Montgomery the clear comfort pick in drafts, the Texans’ receiving options look more lik

For a Texans fan. the mood entering 2026 fantasy drafts is a familiar kind of complicated: optimism about the pieces added this offseason. and a lingering question about whether the offense will ever feel comfortable enough to trust. The team’s recent embarrassment against the Patriots is part of why Houston can be such a tough brand to root for in the fantasy conversation—but the Texans’ football identity is also why there are still draft-day openings.

The starting point is what Houston has looked like on the field. In 2025. the Texans finished 13th in points per game (23.8). 18th in total yards per game (327). and 6th in plays per game (64). They dropped back 41.1 times per game (9th). posted a dropback EPA per play of 0.08 (17th). and ran 27.1 designed rushing attempts per game (10th). The overall efficiency in the run game didn’t match the intent, with rush EPA per play at -0.15 (30th).

So when Houston’s front office acted this offseason, it did so with a clear philosophy. The Texans traded a fourth-round pick for David Montgomery. signed offensive linemen Braden Smith and Wyatt Teller—both older but brought in for run-blocking pedigree—and drafted guard/center Keylan Rutledge in the first round. They also added Marlin Klein in the second round to deepen their tight end group. a move that’s tied directly to how Houston wants to use personnel. Last year. the Texans used six-linemen formations at 18 percent. ranking second in the NFL for such sets. and they led the league in three-wide sets at 71 percent—part of a tactical picture built around tight end availability and who they could actually trust on the field. Houston also gave playing time last year to Brenden Bates and Harrison Bryant.

If the line and tight ends are the foundation, the receiving room is the part of the story that looks most like opportunity—with uncertainty attached. The major receiving investment this offseason was Lewis Bond, selected in the sixth round.

That same run-first mentality helps explain why the Texans’ offense can feel “boring” in fantasy terms. even as some roles look intriguing. Houston wants to take the air out of the ball and let the all-world defense dictate outcomes. The blueprint was visible in 2024, when the Texans added Joe Mixon. Houston wanted to play that style again even after last year’s offseason plan was complicated by Mixon’s foot injury. described as a mysterious problem tied to a training and recovery period. When Mixon went down, Houston leaned on C.J. Stroud’s arm before his concussion because they could not trust Nick Chubb to do more than what was blocked or Woody Marks to generate positive yardage.

The offense’s quarterback story is also a fantasy story with sharp edges. Stroud’s public perception has been impacted by his last two games. labeled as “very public meltdowns. ” but the Texans were still a much better passing offense with Stroud in shotgun. Their DVOA out of that alignment was 2.0 percent compared to -13.3 percent without it. It’s part of why some people are skeptical about where Stroud’s value should land now: he has major mistakes in him—an example was shown loudly last January—and he has missed games in each of the last two seasons with concussions.

In fantasy terms, the conclusion is blunt. An above-average quarterback on a team that doesn’t want to pass carries very low fantasy upside. Stroud is described as a worthwhile superflex starter based on efficiency. but in standard leagues he’s positioned more like a waiver-wire call. because there are said to be higher-upside options at quarterback in the same draft range. The draft comparison that follows is striking: Malik Willis or Tyler Shough are offered as preferable targets.

Nico Collins is treated as physically impressive and capable of producing hot per-touch splits. but his injury history and Houston’s unwillingness to throw shape expectations. Collins has never played 16 games in five seasons in the NFL. The argument here isn’t about the talent—it’s about whether Houston will suddenly force usage that doesn’t fit the offense’s philosophy. The Texans are expected to keep playing the football they want to play. which makes Collins a projection of “good low-end WR1. maybe a high-end WR2. when healthy. ” rather than a slam-dunk breakout.

The price-to-upside argument is made through ADP comparisons that include A.J. Brown and Drake Maye, with the claim that Collins is among the weaker top-25 ADP stabs right now. There’s also skepticism that the sixth-year breakout—specifically framed as “a top-five wideout season”—is realistic on a team that hates throwing.

Dalton Schultz brings a different kind of potential. He has traditionally been a low-end TE1 when healthy for the Texans. and last year he had the highest number of targets of his career. But the belief is that his role may shrink with more healthy tight ends on the roster in 2026. Schultz’s recent production is summarized with the key numbers: five touchdown catches over his last two seasons. and fantasy statlines framed as “5/56” and about “7.5 PPR” points sort of games. He’s positioned as essentially free in drafts. hovering outside the top-20 tight ends. with only a limited ceiling case given the projected target environment.

Houston’s wideouts beyond Collins add more upside questions than weekly certainty. Jayden Higgins is going off the board outside the top-50 wideouts. Tank Dell and Jaylin Noel are going outside the top-200 picks altogether on most sites. All three carry upside, but the warning is that they may struggle to reach 8-to-10 targets a game. Noel’s season history is included as part of the intrigue: he was shackled to the bench most of last season for Christian Kirk. which the writer says they didn’t understand. But even with those personal preferences. there’s no clear presumptive favorite for a major target-share leap. and the suggestion remains that the upside may still be sketchy.

The running game is where the fantasy value sharpens, and it starts with the player the Texans traded for: David Montgomery.

Montgomery is described as a nearly unavoidable draft pick—“free money on most sites”—and is going outside the top-20 running backs in ADP on almost every site. The expectation is a chance to finish as a top-10 back in 2026.

The reasoning ties back to Montgomery’s skill set and past usage. He was trusted as a third-down back with the Bears for years. and his role was only reduced in Detroit after the Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs as one of the best passing-down backs in the entire NFL. The Texans are believed to think Montgomery can handle that same kind of work. even if they might rest him on a few days.

The comparison to Houston’s earlier identity is direct. In 2024. Joe Mixon was given 245 carries and 52 targets in just 14 games in a very similar situation. and he returned fantasy value even behind a bad offensive line with 12 total touchdowns. If Mixon had played all 17 games. he was on pace for 341 touches. which would have put him fifth in the league.

There’s also a nod to wear-and-tear, framed carefully. Splitting time with Gibbs over the last few years likely kept some tread off Montgomery’s tires. Injuries are still the variable—Montgomery is in his age-29 season—but the writer says there have been no major statistical red flags so far.

For the rest of Houston’s backfield, the outlook is smaller. The belief is that Woody Marks won’t manage more than a small share of the backfield. and if Jawhar Jordan had been healthy down the stretch last season. Marks might have been in a committee role in the playoffs as well. The takeaway is straightforward: Montgomery’s the show.

The projected 2026 backfield is listed as David Montgomery, Woody Marks, and Jawhar Jordan, with the offensive line (L-R) identified as Aireontae Ersery, Wyatt Teller, Keylan Rutledge, Ed Ingram, and Braden Smith.

Even with the offense’s limited ceiling in this fantasy lens, Houston’s season aim still centers on wins. The draft guide piece ends with a 2026 win total and the betting line attached to it. DraftKings’ over/under for the Texans is 9.5, and the pick is Over (-125).

The defense is framed as the engine behind that bet. Kayden McDonald is described as a stab at the interior presence the Texans have never had over the course of this run. Reed Blankenship is said to add stability to the back seven that was lacking last year after the surprise release of C.J. Gardner-Johnson. There’s also the belief that this defense could somehow be even better in 2026.

On the special teams scoring side, Ka’imi Fairbairn is referenced as having been “nails” the last two years. The offense. in that betting outlook. is allowed to be what it always has been in this story—something that will “continue to exist.” The hope is that it might take a step forward and make Houston a legitimate contender. but the baseline expectation is that the path back to wins has been largely about not getting in the defense’s way.

Houston is expected to chase double-digit results again with one core truth driving the entire fantasy and season picture: under DeMeco Ryans. the Texans have done 10 wins every year of his era. and the way the roster is built suggests they want that number to keep feeling repeatable—even if it doesn’t always make the fantasy options look glamorous.

Houston Texans David Montgomery C.J. Stroud Nico Collins fantasy football 2026 NFL preview Joe Mixon Ka’imi Fairbairn DeMeco Ryans Keylan Rutledge Wyatt Teller Braden Smith