The NFL’s supplemental draft priority and bidding system is built differently from the regular draft, and it could allow quarterback Brendan Sorsby to be selected higher than the widely expected third round—depending on how teams evaluate his risk profile and
By the time the supplemental draft arrives, the guessing game won’t just be about Brendan Sorsby’s talent. It’ll be about timing—how quickly a team decides he’s worth moving for before the bidding windows close.
The NFL’s supplemental draft won’t mimic the usual pick-by-pick rhythm. Instead, before each round, a team will bid its pick. If one or more bids are made. the player is awarded based on the official priority order—turning every decision into a calculated gamble rather than a straight climb up a board.
That priority order is where Sorsby’s draft stock could swing. For the seven rounds. the NFL initially groups teams into three tiers based on results from 2025: teams that won six or fewer games in 2025—Jets. Bengals. Browns. Titans. Chiefs. Raiders. Commanders. Giants. Saints. and Cardinals; teams that won seven or more games and missed the playoffs in 2025—Dolphins. Ravens. Colts. Cowboys. Vikings. Lions. Buccaneers. and Falcons; and the 2025 playoff teams—Patriots. Bills. Steelers. Jaguars. Texans. Broncos. Chargers. Eagles. Bears. Packers. Panthers. Seahawks. Rams. and 49ers.
Within each group, the league uses a weighted lottery to determine the precise order. After that, top-to-bottom priority is set. In other words, the teams with the earliest access aren’t simply the teams everyone expects—they’re the teams who win their place through the lottery.
That’s why a third-round expectation for Sorsby could crack. There’s a general vibe that he’ll be a third-round pick. But if a playoff team that doesn’t believe it has a long-term answer at the position decides Sorsby could develop into a year-to-year starter—and eventually become a short-list franchise quarterback—it could be tempted to move quickly before higher-priority teams bid.
The scenario that keeps teams awake is simple: Sorsby could climb into round two if a playoff team makes its bid in time. And depending on the impression he creates between now and the start of the supplemental draft. that same playoff team could even consider sacrificing what would potentially be a low first-round pick in 2027 to get Sorsby before non-playoff teams choose him.
For all the strategy, the league’s process also forces a kind of secrecy. The guessing game requires teams to keep their true views on Sorsby under wraps. The coming days and weeks could be messy—especially if one or more teams want him and then try to shape the outcome of the supplemental draft in their direction.
The suspense isn’t starting at zero. The possibility of Sorsby entering the supplemental draft has lingered since late April. which means plenty of teams have likely already done much of their homework. The position is too important for any team to avoid a close look at Sorsby. There’s risk, too, and teams will be weighing it carefully.
Sorsby’s upside is only half the conversation. Picking him entails the possibility that he could be suspended in 2026—something the source says “he shouldn’t be.” There’s also the concern that his gambling addiction could resurface. leading to a future suspension. or possibly a full-blown gambling scandal for the team and the league.
Those risks hang over every decision. but the debate isn’t just about the existence of risk—it’s about where it is most likely to come from. The questions being raised are blunt: Where does the greater risk for a future gambling scandal come from—monitoring a player continuously like no other player has ever been monitored. or from the hundreds of players who aren’t receiving extra attention?.
That’s the moment where the math meets the human reality of roster-building. The point right now is straightforward: Sorsby could end up going in round one if only one team that is low in the priority decides it wants to get him before anyone else can in round two.
And until teams are forced to bid, everything will be controlled chaos—priority determined by lottery, selections driven by urgency, and Sorsby’s next landing spot hanging on decisions no one wants to make too late.
Brendan Sorsby supplemental draft NFL weighted lottery draft priority quarterback Jets Bengals Browns Titans Chiefs Raiders Commanders Giants Saints Cardinals Dolphins Ravens Colts Cowboys Vikings Lions Buccaneers Falcons Patriots Bills Steelers Jaguars Texans Broncos Chargers Eagles Bears Packers Panthers Seahawks Rams 49ers
So he’s basically gonna get drafted higher if a team panics? NFL math is wild.
I’m confused, are the Jets actually in the “worse teams” lottery group AND also expected to take him? Seems like they’d take everyone then.
This says the priority is random lottery but also “weighted,” so like… it’s not random then. And “timing” like they’re racing to bid before windows close? Sounds like whoever has more picks just wins, not whoever deserves him.
The way they list teams is weird, like Chiefs and Raiders are just in a tier together with everyone else. If Sorsby is “risk profile” or whatever, why would a playoff team waste a bid? Unless they’re just trying to block another team, which feels like always.