Strait of Hormuz closes 100 days—oil stays muted

oil prices – Even after the Strait of Hormuz was effectively shut for more than 100 days, Brent crude remains relatively calm near $87.55 per barrel. The reasons sit in storage buffers, demand cuts, and tanker “dark trade” that makes it hard to confirm how much oil is actu

Last week, President Donald Trump claimed a secret US mission moved 100 million barrels of oil through the Strait of Hormuz while it was blockaded. The number landed in the middle of a different, older problem: nobody can say—confidently—how much oil is really getting out.

Matt Stanley, head of market engagement at Kpler, the commodity intelligence and ship-tracking firm, put it bluntly. “No one’s experienced this kind of disruption.” He said the difficulty comes down to the so-called “dark trade. ” where vessels run without their AIS transponders. move at night. and sometimes get closer to the Omani border. even with naval escort.

Industry detectives can still catch parts of what’s leaving. Different grades of crude can only originate from specific fields. The UAE’s Murban crude can be exported via Fujairah, outside the strait. Upper Zakum cannot. One oil market analyst said their team has seen Upper Zakum crude show up in other markets. The sightings are real, but the scale—how much is moving overall—remains unknown.

Stanley said it’s possible that 100 million barrels made it through the Strait of Hormuz since the first of May. In his framing, it doesn’t match the size of normal flow. “When you put into context. pre-conflict. it was about 20 million barrels a day that was going through. so five days worth of oil. in a normal traffic environment. and it’s taken over a month. 100 million barrels. it’s a good number. but it’s a relative drop in the ocean. literally. compared to previous traffic.”.

That measurement gap matters, because it’s the same gap that complicates the market’s reaction.

World Trade Organization data shows a 95 percent reduction in crude oil shipments from Arabian Gulf ports and a 99 percent reduction in liquified natural gas carriers. The International Energy Agency has called it “the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” Yet Brent crude traded at $87.55 per barrel—its lowest since before the conflict began.

The missing jolt is tied to buffers. Stanley said China has approximately 1.3 billion barrels in storage, drawing it down at around a million barrels a day. He pointed to demand timing: “We see their demand, about 7 million barrels a day from May, June, and July. They were buying 12.5 million barrels a day in December.” The US. Brazil. and Canada have also stepped in to fill part of the void.

For now, the market response has been swift—especially on consumption. Iman Nasseri. managing director. Middle East of FGE NexantECA. an energy and chemical advisory company. said the oil market cut parts of demand “significantly well” in response to the outage. “There is also a significant amount of stock that has come to market. ” he said. but he doubts it can keep happening. “We expect that by July [if the strait remains closed], things will change.”.

That shift may come faster than anyone wants. One analyst said stocks are approaching what the industry calls operationally critical levels—where oil in storage and additional supply need to be replenished. They also said the US. currently acting as a swing producer. faces its own deadline as the end of the year approaches. and the US will have to prioritize its domestic production to meet heat demand at home.

Stanley described the market’s bet on timing. “People looking at October, you really think that it would be sorted out by the middle of August,” he said. “That’s what I think the market is hoping for.”

And even if the blockage eases, restarting the world is a different kind of countdown. Global oil supply fell 10.1 million barrels per day in March, with OPEC+ production dropping by 9.4 million barrels per day month-on-month. The harder question is how much supply returns—and when.

Analysis by S&P Global CERA estimates restart timelines of 10 weeks to seven months for fields shut down for two months. The IEA executive director Fatih Birol has said more than 80 energy facilities have been damaged. and recovery “could take as long as two years.” The UAE’s national oil company estimates full Hormuz flows won’t resume until 2027.

In the immediate term. prices haven’t screamed because the world has been leaning on reserves. shifting purchases. and trimming demand. But the same facts that keep Brent from exploding—buffers that can be drawn down. stock that can be released. and disruption that can’t be measured cleanly—also point to a harder future as those reserves near their limits and repairs stretch out.

Strait of Hormuz oil prices Brent crude Kpler dark trade AIS transponders Murban crude Upper Zakum Fujairah OPEC+ production International Energy Agency Fatih Birol operationally critical levels energy facilities restart timelines UAE national oil company